Hong Kong Handle Up

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Nitro

...However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how the handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Could predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Other than the handle, these are the two factors that set HK racing apart from most venues. No race day drugs, and they police the jocks to make sure they are trying. Any favorite that finishes up the track is under extra scrutiny. It's not 100% clean, but miles and miles ahead of the racing racket in North America. It's very much like racing used to be here 30 years ago, before the arrival of the super-trainers (and super vets). Factors like post position, trip and basis are much more critical, and can't be overcome with the needle, and with the racing officials looking the other way.

There's only so much growth HK can expect from casual fans, as many won't ever accommodate the time difference, or prefer local racing anyway. It remains to be seen whether or not some of the large betting syndicates in NA focus more on Hong Kong - it certainly appears to be one of the few green pastures remaining in the game.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how the handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Could predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

When you bet the races at HK using your money-tracking software...do you automatically discard the horses who don't attract what you consider to be "significant" action in the mutuel pools? If the "significant action" gravitates to only a few horses in the race...does that mean that only "idiot money" is attracted by the other horses? Don't these "overlooked horses", who don't receive significant betting action, deserve some consideration for the minor spots of a horizontal wager?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When you bet the races at HK using your money-tracking software...do you automatically discard the horses who don't attract what you consider to be "significant" action in the mutuel pools? If the "significant action" gravitates to only a few horses in the race...does that mean that only "idiot money" is attracted by the other horses? Don't these "overlooked horses", who don't receive significant betting action, deserve some consideration for the minor spots of a horizontal wager?

Yes, that’s the normal procedure, but as well as the Mutual pools it also involves monitoring the Quinella pool. I wouldn’t call the action on the other entries “idiot money”, because sometimes they will show up finishing 3rd or 4th in what I think you meant to call Vertical plays. My primary focus has been making both Dutch Win and Quinella bets. So I’m really not concerned too much about those entries.

What I really enjoy about using the tote analysis for the racing in HK is way it can differentiate the significant action from one entry to another. I believe that’s due to the large field sizes which are generally 12 to 14 entries. I can’t wait for it to start up again in early September. In the meantime I’ll enjoy some normal sleeping hours on Sundays and Wednesdays.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Other than the handle, these are the two factors that set HK racing apart from most venues. No race day drugs, and they police the jocks to make sure they are trying. Any favorite that finishes up the track is under extra scrutiny. It's not 100% clean, but miles and miles ahead of the racing racket in North America. It's very much like racing used to be here 30 years ago, before the arrival of the super-trainers (and super vets). Factors like post position, trip and basis are much more critical, and can't be overcome with the needle, and with the racing officials looking the other way.

There's only so much growth HK can expect from casual fans, as many won't ever accommodate the time difference, or prefer local racing anyway. It remains to be seen whether or not some of the large betting syndicates in NA focus more on Hong Kong - it certainly appears to be one of the few green pastures remaining in the game.

That’s an excellent observation! However, I really believe that one of the Key ingredients for the overall success with HK racing is because they don’t race for purposes of future breeding. They race for sake of racing itself. All of their horses are selected, purchased and imported for racing purposes only.

Another factor to consider is that the majority of their races are true handicaps. Horses carry between 133 and 112 lbs in the same race. (BTW their Form Guide (Racing form) also includes not only the weight that was carried in each race, but the actual weight of the horse in each race as well how much it weighs on race day).

Another factor to consider is that there are NO Claiming or Allowance races carded. Horses are transferred from one owner to another through private purchases.

When horses don’t perform well or have had physical issues, they’re required to perform satisfactorily in racing trials prior to them being permitted to be entered in actual future racing events. In fact, many of the trainers there generally use these racing trials as training preparation for future events.

The majority of their races are run on the Turf which seems to add longevity to a horse’s racing career. It’s not uncommon to see horses that are 6, 7, 8 and even 9 years old competing with some success. While the majority of their races are run at 1200M (6F), 1400M (7F), and 1600M/1650M (8F/8.25F) distances, they also run them at 1800M (9F), 2000M (10F) and 2400M (12F). They also offer unique 1000M (5F) Sprint races that are only run on a straight course (No turn involved).

The overall racing product including all the data (statistical and otherwise) that the HKJC provides is clearly a testimonial of total regard and interest for its patrons: The betting population. The handle is an obvious reflection of that statement.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Nitro

That’s an excellent observation! However, I really believe that one of the Key ingredients for the overall success with HK racing is because they don’t race for purposes of future breeding. They race for sake of racing itself. All of their horses are selected, purchased and imported for racing purposes only.

Another factor to consider is that the majority of their races are true handicaps. Horses carry between 133 and 112 lbs in the same race. (BTW their Form Guide (Racing form) also includes not only the weight that was carried in each race, but the actual weight of the horse in each race as well how much it weighs on race day).

Another factor to consider is that there are NO Claiming or Allowance races carded. Horses are transferred from one owner to another through private purchases.

When horses don’t perform well or have had physical issues, they’re required to perform satisfactorily in racing trials prior to them being permitted to be entered in actual future racing events. In fact, many of the trainers there generally use these racing trials as training preparation for future events.

The majority of their races are run on the Turf which seems to add longevity to a horse’s racing career. It’s not uncommon to see horses that are 6, 7, 8 and even 9 years old competing with some success. While the majority of their races are run at 1200M (6F), 1400M (7F), and 1600M/1650M (8F/8.25F) distances, they also run them at 1800M (9F), 2000M (10F) and 2400M (12F). They also offer unique 1000M (5F) Sprint races that are only run on a straight course (No turn involved).

The overall racing product including all the data (statistical and otherwise) that the HKJC provides is clearly a testimonial of total regard and interest for its patrons: The betting population. The handle is an obvious reflection of that statement.

I'd agree with much of your post, but would argue that the handicap method used isn't that significant. Using conditional claiming, allowance and stakes races, AND some handicaps, here in North America the same result is achieved - a group of relatively equal horses in the race.

I'd also argue that the unreal handle in Hong Kong has a strong cultural factor behind it. I read somewhere that one out of every six residents there is a horseplayer. But I agree that the HKJC is definitely on the side of the players versus the owners and trainers, and that's a huge difference.

Good point about the breeding not being a factor. When New York finally allowed lasix, I thought it was a bad decision, but I didn't realize how bad. Now the chronic bleeders stand at stud, and several decades of the Euros shipping their bleeders over here hasn't helped the breed at all. It makes is much more difficult to implement new med rules when the entire industry is dependent on them....

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Nitro

WOW! The foreign exchanges provide Only 5.7% of the total handle in HK!

I knew you'd try and downplay this very important point. 5.7% is nothing.

It's ALL coming from Hong Kong...which is a major, major tell as to why my reasoning is sound, and your criticisms of it are disingenuous.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I knew you'd try and downplay this very important point. 5.7% is nothing.

It's ALL coming from Hong Kong...which is a major, major tell as to why my reasoning is sound, and your criticisms of it are disingenuous.

Who’s “downplaying” it? I’m saying just the opposite! The 5.7% is meaningful.

I guess it was convenient to take my comment out of its context when you realize just how much that 5.7% is in real dollars.

Originally Posted by Nitro

WOW! The foreign exchanges provide Only 5.7% of the total handle in HK!

But wait a minute, instead of just throwing percentage numbers around, why not see what 5.7% of that Total 88-day handle of $15.28 Billion US$ really equates to.
(BTW those 88 days between Sha Tin & Happy Valley provided only 792 races)

Why that’s only $870,960,000 Million US dollars of the total handle!
(Or an average of $1,099,697 bet per race).

Still there are those who would like to besmirch the value or impact of HK racing and what it represents for players all over the world. I would say that HK is one of the few places in the world that still retains the original concept of this game as being portrayed as the “Sport of Kings”.
A concept that unfortunately has been a fairy tale in No. America for quite a while.

If anyone is being critical please take a look in the mirror. It seems that anytime the topic of Hong Kong racing comes up you for some reason want to defend the premise that betting here in the States as being something worthwhile. When in fact, it pales by comparison. I don’t care who’s betting.

That Million$/ per race which represents that meager 5.7% is BTW nearly equal to the current betting per race at either Saratoga or Del Mar. The difference is that there it’s 100% of the betting at our premiere tracks not 5.7%.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Nitro

If anyone is being critical please take a look in the mirror. It seems that anytime the topic of Hong Kong racing comes up you for some reason want to defend the premise that betting here in the States as being something worthwhile. When in fact, it pales by comparison. I don’t care who’s betting.

That Million$/ per race which represents that meager 5.7% is BTW nearly equal to the current betting per race at either Saratoga or Del Mar. The difference is that there it’s 100% of the betting at our premiere tracks not 5.7%.

You don't listen very well, which is why I will stop talking about HK with you. I see that you don't get it, and you feel likewise about me...thus...completely non-productive.

I will end by saying you continue to push this false narrative that something can be done to make the USA just like HK...all it takes is for some idiot to wake up and change some things. When in fact, there is an entire institutional and cultural difference that is a major factor and which can't be duplicated here in the USA.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You don't listen very well, which is why I will stop talking about HK with you. I see that you don't get it, and you feel likewise about me...thus...completely non-productive.

I will end by saying you continue to push this false narrative that something can be done to make the USA just like HK...all it takes is for some idiot to wake up and change some things. When in fact, there is an entire institutional and cultural difference that is a major factor and which can't be duplicated here in the USA.

Well if talking about HK racing is completely non-productive here why do you keep reigniting this thread?

The thread is simply about the O.A. handle at HK having increased. It’s not very difficult to understand why that seems to happen year-after-year.

It might not seem fair to compare the O. A. betting handle from only 2 tracks in Hong Kong to every track in No. America, but if nothing else it demonstrates just how good the game can be when properly organized and regulated. So, I would agree that there is certainly a cultural difference, but that variance is based on a compelling interest in a product that far superior to what’s being offered locally.

The defeatist attitude that’s shared by so many people primarily those in the local racing jurisdictions is as far as I’m concerned, a pathetic excuse for not even attempting to reform the game for the benefit of its patrons: The Bettors. They seem content to rely on a diminishing group of older (somewhat complacent) players without any concern for rejuvenating the customer base with new players.

BTW aside from a discussion on the HK handle, why am I not surprised that anyone has responded to my comments in post #30.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Well if talking about HK racing is completely non-productive here why do you keep reigniting this thread?

The thread is simply about the O.A. handle at HK having increased. It’s not very difficult to understand why that seems to happen year-after-year.

It might not seem fair to compare the O. A. betting handle from only 2 tracks in Hong Kong to every track in No. America, but if nothing else it demonstrates just how good the game can be when properly organized and regulated. So, I would agree that there is certainly a cultural difference, but that variance is based on a compelling interest in a product that far superior to what’s being offered locally.

The defeatist attitude that’s shared by so many people primarily those in the local racing jurisdictions is as far as I’m concerned, a pathetic excuse for not even attempting to reform the game for the benefit of its patrons: The Bettors. They seem content to rely on a diminishing group of older (somewhat complacent) players without any concern for rejuvenating the customer base with new players.

BTW aside from a discussion on the HK handle, why am I not surprised that anyone has responded to my comments in post #30.

When you can find someone in the USA that can vanquish a good majority of racing's competition for the gambling dollar (as it currently exists in HK), then we can talk apples to apples.

Until then, it's not even worthy of any type of discussion.

But you'll keep harping on "reforms" while completely ignoring the huge advantage that has existed with HK when compared to USA from the beginning...

[Wan Chai]

So Macau casinos (which are much bigger than Vegas) are not competition for the gambling dollar?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Wan Chai

So Macau casinos (which are much bigger than Vegas) are not competition for the gambling dollar?

casino's are no competition whatsoever for horse racing. people all over the world love to bet on regulated horse racing no matter how many casino's there are.
if anything casino's better worry about well run race tracks.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Wan Chai

So Macau casinos (which are much bigger than Vegas) are not competition for the gambling dollar?

If we actually were able to wave a magic wand and turn USA racing into an exact duplicate of what they have going in HK, I would guarantee you racing would cease to exist in this country in no time. Two tracks...about 700 races per year total...good luck.

Works over there...wouldn't work here, even if all the magical drug enforcement and magical "never any cheating" were to be duplicated here as well.

BTW, ever think of how easy it would be to run a strict no-nonsense operation as it pertains to drug infractions and cheating when you only have two tracks to monitor in the entire country? LMAO

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

...if anything casinos better worry about well run race tracks.

Yes...I agree that the casinos should be afraid of the well-run racetracks. Luckily for the casinos...such tracks haven't been invented yet.

[AltonKelsey]

Forgetting about the unique situation they have in HK, you still have to marvel at the excellent informational job they do . Video is epic, only now being approached years later by us here in the US.

They still are leading edge. All we have to do is copy.


Also, I find it odd that Thorograph and Ragozin , not to mention the Equibase folks, haven't produced speed figs and PP's for the racing there.

In the case of TG, Im almost tempted to think they have private clients that don't want them selling sheets, but that's pure speculation.

Considering the MASSIVE handle , it looks like a no brainer biz decision to me. How much work could it be? No need to have a man on the ground, the video is more than good enough to do ground loss. They do tracks now that handle 2 cents and probably sell 5 sets of sheets.