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Old 07-02-2017, 10:25 AM   #1
PhantomOnTour
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Queen's Plate - WO Race 10

Not a fan of Woodbine and definitely not a fan of synthetic, but love to play this race every year.

I give the Channel Maker a great shot to win it. Has tactical speed in a race with few E types...can be placed almost anywhere, and should get a good trip close to the pace today. Has run his best figs at WO (turf and synthetic) and made a nice move in his last race but couldn't handle the winner while well clear of the others.
ML of 4-1 seems about right but I see him coming down a bit from that price.

Must use the also

Best of luck...your thoughts??
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Old 07-02-2017, 10:48 AM   #2
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I will be on Tiz a Slam. Attfield has been pointing to this race and horse seems ready. Da Silva sticks with and has always been high on this one all along.
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Old 07-02-2017, 11:02 AM   #3
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Great card at WO today, POT, and this race is always on my radar as well.

is the 4 rules horse and the top Early horse with a dominating 26 point edge (CJ suggested a length is about 5 points, so do the math). However, his late pace is the worst in the field. Using the adjusted times, I get his %E to be 51.29% which doesn't look too high to me, but is cause for concern.

Guy Caballero is very interesting - third off a layoff, he has been improving ever race except his first back off the layoff, then set a new top last time, only 3 point below the 4 rules horse. Only 4 figs are higher from the last three races, and they are shared by only two horses. His early/late balance is very good - he will have first run over the top 4 best late horses. Of those four, King and his Court has the best speed figs to go with his late run.

At 20-1, this guy, the has my palm itching.

Early line, in order of my preference

10-1
8-1
5-1
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Old 07-02-2017, 11:42 AM   #4
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I like the Malibu Secret to improve greatly off of his last start and be a live player in here. Obviously I also have to like the if I like the and then toss in the and ,

Aurora Way is particularly interesting having just a single race under his belt; but it may be as good as any in the field. The 2 horses he put away will be running in R5, so we might get a little better idea of what he beat, which might not be much.

Certainly wouldn't be surprised if it is an all filly exacta with the .
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Old 07-02-2017, 12:21 PM   #5
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I'll take a stab on the in here. Part of an uncoupled entry for Casse. If you use the last as a prep and toss the Derby disaster, the race 3 back wins this. Should be forwardly placed and the price is right at 8-1 ML>

$10 WP

$5 Exacta Box the with

Good Luck!
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Old 07-02-2017, 12:25 PM   #6
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The , channel Maker, has a chance to wire the field. look for him to break well. Great post positon. Can lead and finish. Best late pace, top equibase speed figure. Bill Mott (sorry Oracle) decent grass trainer. Mott 23% wins last ten days. 21% wins jockey last ten days, +54 ROI. The one knock I have is seconditis this year.

early pace leaders.

late pace.

top equibase speed number.

(top by a lot) class.


The and included in any exotic. After that, who knows.

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Old 07-02-2017, 12:26 PM   #7
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Love the race.

This is a tough edition.

Was hoping to be betting-against State of Honor here ever since I saw him run 2nd in a Derby Prep in April. After losing a weak Trial, he won't be favored.

2 horses that I'm thinking about

Aurora Way - I like that he just broke maiden. Should be a fair price. Have no idea if good enough to win. Haven't seen anything that makes him look great. I could see him hitting the board with a good trip without using too much imagination.

Inflexibility - Must respect the barn. No superstar, but can roll when she has good momentum and a good setup. I like that she lost to Holy Helena last time. Hopefully a fair price.
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Old 07-02-2017, 12:33 PM   #8
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BIG WIN, PLACE BET


WITH EX'S,TRI'S AND SUPER'S

WITH
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Old 07-02-2017, 01:18 PM   #9
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Talking

What a nice card @ Awesome Woodbine 2day GL 2Everyone EnjoyIt!
10th QP
Megagray

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Old 07-02-2017, 01:23 PM   #10
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I have to agree with Sandy the Aurora Way - and the reason is Leparoux usually rides for Mark E. Casse and when he doesn't (when they are in the same race of course) he wins a lot of the time.

and a TBX 5, 6, 7, 11

I might add the in a couple other tri's closer to the race because I'm a big English Channel fan ( usually on the turf)
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Old 07-02-2017, 06:37 PM   #11
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So this made his debut on June 10th and is sitting there at 5-1?
Gonna let this dude beat me...no way.

EX: w
EX: w
WIN:
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Old 07-02-2017, 06:39 PM   #12
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I was hoping this race would come up with State of Honor as a heavy favorite.

At his current 9/1 range, there is no reason that he has to be tossed.

/

/

$20

$1 ex box =$20


$40
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Old 07-02-2017, 06:49 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
So this made his debut on June 10th and is sitting there at 5-1?
Gonna let this dude beat me...no way.

EX: w
EX: w
WIN:

The filly blows them away...
I was right about the and wrong about the , who had an interesting trip.
Hernandez took him off the rail almost immediately (which was good) but fell way too far back of a slow pace...predictably made a big move and hung.
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Old 07-02-2017, 06:54 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post

The filly blows them away...
I was right about the and wrong about the , who had an interesting trip.
Hernandez took him off the rail almost immediately (which was good) but fell way too far back of a slow pace...predictably made a big move and hung.
Obviously worried about the Filly continuing to get "perfect trips", but when a horse continues to do so, they are just that good.
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Old 07-02-2017, 07:00 PM   #15
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Obviously worried about the Filly continuing to get "perfect trips", but when a horse continues to do so, they are just that good.
Ya know, I was about to comment on her trip...it was as good as you could hope for. Watched the replay a few times and the both had to wait on the far turn while she was bearing down on the leaders. The especially; notice how they both kicked it in when they got way off the rail in the stretch.
I think the next leg is 12f on turf so who knows if this will even factor
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