Determining race pace using Brisnet race pace shapes

[Gasser57]

Hi all,

New guy here who's also pretty new to handicapping. I read a Brisnet article about race pace shapes and using them to determine the pace of a race to help see what horses might have an advantage. The article used the table below to determine a race's pace.

Race Pace Shape / Running Styles

EEE = 3 or more “E” horses
EE = 2 “E” horses
E = 1 “E” horse and no “EP” horse
E-EP = 1 “E” horse and 1 or more “EP” horses
EP-EP = 2 or more “EP” horses
EP = 1 “EP” horse and no “P” horses
EP-P = 1 “EP” horse and 1 or more “P” horses
P-P = 2 or more “P” horses
P = 1 “P” horse with no other running style designations
P-S = 1 “P” horse and 1 or more “S” horses
S = all “S” horses

I'm hoping someone is familiar with this table and can tell me how to use it. For instance, say you have a 12 horse field with three "E" style horses, three "EP" horses, three "P" horses, and three "S" horses. Based on the table, it seems like you could categorize the race several different ways. Or do you just work top to bottom, which for the example I gave would automatically make this an EEE race, regardless of the style of the other horses?

Thanks in advance to anyone that can help.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Gasser57

Hi all,

New guy here who's also pretty new to handicapping. I read a Brisnet article about race pace shapes and using them to determine the pace of a race to help see what horses might have an advantage. The article used the table below to determine a race's pace.

Race Pace Shape Running Styles

EEE = 3 or more “E” horses
EE = 2 “E” horses
E = 1 “E” horse and no “EP” horse
E-EP = 1 “E” horse and 1 or more “EP” horses
EP-EP = 2 or more “EP” horses
EP = 1 “EP” horse and no “P” horses
EP-P = 1 “EP” horse and 1 or more “P” horses
P-P = 2 or more “P” horses
P = 1 “P” horse with no other running style designations
P-S = 1 “P” horse and 1 or more “S” horses
S = all “S” horses

I'm hoping someone is familiar with this table and can tell me how to use it. For instance, say you have a 12 horse field with three "E" style horses, three "EP" horses, three "P" horses, and three "S" horses. Based on the table, it seems like you could categorize the race several different ways. Or do you just work top to bottom, which for the example I gave would automatically make this an EEE race, regardless of the style of the other horses?

Thanks in advance to anyone that can help.

The problem with this approach lies in the fact that jockeys are handicapping the race as well. Running style changes are was more often than the vast majority of handicappers seem to realize and you certainly need to find the way to incorporate them in your process.

[whodoyoulike]

I've also been looking at BRIS' reported running style for each horse.

Sometimes it appears correct but a lot of times it isn't for the upcoming race.

I think you need an alternative way to determine if it is correct or close to it because that's what you're basing everything on that it is indeed accurate.

[JustRalph]

That race shape data is crap and always has been.

The above post about jockeys is right on. Especially the cheaper the horses and the younger the horses. Trying to change a horses running style when they are young or losing seems to be the norm

There is tons of better info on race shapes out there via software or pp's from much better sources

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Gasser57

Hi all,

New guy here who's also pretty new to handicapping. I read a Brisnet article about race pace shapes and using them to determine the pace of a race to help see what horses might have an advantage. The article used the table below to determine a race's pace.

Race Pace Shape / Running Styles

EEE = 3 or more “E” horses
EE = 2 “E” horses
E = 1 “E” horse and no “EP” horse
E-EP = 1 “E” horse and 1 or more “EP” horses
EP-EP = 2 or more “EP” horses
EP = 1 “EP” horse and no “P” horses
EP-P = 1 “EP” horse and 1 or more “P” horses
P-P = 2 or more “P” horses
P = 1 “P” horse with no other running style designations
P-S = 1 “P” horse and 1 or more “S” horses
S = all “S” horses

I'm hoping someone is familiar with this table and can tell me how to use it. For instance, say you have a 12 horse field with three "E" style horses, three "EP" horses, three "P" horses, and three "S" horses. Based on the table, it seems like you could categorize the race several different ways. Or do you just work top to bottom, which for the example I gave would automatically make this an EEE race, regardless of the style of the other horses?

Thanks in advance to anyone that can help.

CJ had the best system using the run styles. I believe you add up the E, EP and P horses with speed points 5 or greater, if a race had more than 20 points it was a fast pace....its something like that, its been a long time.

[Tom]

I'm hoping someone is familiar with this table and can tell me how to use it. For instance, say you have a 12 horse field with three "E" style horses, three "EP" horses, three "P" horses, and three "S" horses. Based on the table, it seems like you could categorize the race several different ways. Or do you just work top to bottom, which for the example I gave would automatically make this an EEE race, regardless of the style of the other horses?

Thanks in advance to anyone that can help.

Frandsen Article at Twinspires has this chart a detailed discussion at this link. There are a series of issues for AllWays that are free at BRIS.

https://www.twinspires.com/sites/twi...e%20Shapes.pdf

Others:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=allnews

https://www.twinspires.com/sites/twi...es_allways.pdf

[Arapola]

Post Position can also dictate/affect running style.
Particularly around two turns with a short run to the first turn.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

CJ had the best system using the run styles. I believe you add up the E, EP and P horses with speed points 5 or greater, if a race had more than 20 points it was a fast pace....its something like that, its been a long time.

That sounds like Randy Giles' Extreme Pace system. There are two pace numbers, the one you describe and the other is the number of "E"s with 5 or more points. If the first number is 20 as above, and if there are 2 horses rated E5 or above, the race dimension is 20 x 2.

The higher the first number, the faster the likely early pace. The higher the second number, the greater the likelihood of an early speed dual and the more likely a presser or closer will run down the leaders in the stretch.

The lower the two numbers, the more likely a front runner will go wire to wire. In his book, Giles goes through the various scenarios as to which kind of pace favors which kind of running style.

[Gasser57]

Thanks guys! I got the chart in my OP from the Brisnet/ALLWAYS newsletter that Tom provided his first link to. I think between the other links he posted and the additional info you all provided, I should have a much better understanding of how it all fits together.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Being conscious of potential extreme paces is better than playing as if it is irrelevant. If you have a probable hot pace, it might not eliminate the best of the E or EP types, but it usually eliminates the rest of them. That ability to eliminate is key in constructing many tickets.

[Gasser57]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Being conscious of potential extreme paces is better than playing as if it is irrelevant. If you have a probable hot pace, it might not eliminate the best of the E or EP types, but it usually eliminates the rest of them. That ability to eliminate is key in constructing many tickets.

Yes, I've learned eliminating horses isn't just the reverse of picking them. It can take more time but seems to lead to more efficient wagering.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Gasser57

Thanks guys! I got the chart in my OP from the Brisnet/ALLWAYS newsletter that Tom provided his first link to. I think between the other links he posted and the additional info you all provided, I should have a much better understanding of how it all fits together.

I'm surprised how much I'm in agreement with ALLWAYS philosophical approach to handicapping.

But, you'll notice that the program determines the race pace as an alternative method to what's being provided by BRIS PP's.

If you are using ALLWAYS, how about letting us know how you do?

[Gasser57]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I'm surprised how much I'm in agreement with ALLWAYS philosophical approach to handicapping.

But, you'll notice that the program determines the race pace as an alternative method to what's being provided by BRIS PP's.

If you are using ALLWAYS, how about letting us know how you do?

I'm not using ALLWAYS or any handicapping software at this point. I've looked into downloading it, but can't find a working link. The company that apparently created it - Frandsen.com - appears to have disappeared since their website looks like it's now a parked domain.

[Gasser57]

Update to my previous post - I did find a working link to download ALLWAYS, but the download instructions were for Windows 95/98/ME/XP, which suggests it's dangerously old. I couldn't even find it mentioned Googling handicapping software, and the newest reference to it on the software forum here is almost 4 years old.

[Waquoit]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

There is tons of better info on race shapes out there via software or pp's from much better sources

Like what?