Something to think about...spreading wide in the superfecta...

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, this is one gigantic serious redboard. No, I did not bet this superfecta. But, I've been keeping track of exactas, trifectas and superfectas involving my "Value Races & Horses" top pick overlays.

I am keeping track of straight exactas, tris and supers, as well as keying my top pick (when an overlay) over all my other contenders. Sometimes I have two contenders (and thus no tri or super opportunities), sometimes I have 3, 4, 5 or even 6, but 6 is very rare.

So, after 170 races (I haven't been tracking from the start) and with 48 of those 170 races qualifying for a superfecta (meaning, at least 4 contenders), I hit my first superfecta the other day on paper (not cold, but keying my top choice in the win spot only, over all my other contenders). I had five contenders in this particular race. My top choice won at 4-1, and the heavy favorite finished in the money...but the superfecta paid about $4,800 thanks to a 64-1 shot that finished 4th (who was my fifth contender)....there was only about $18,000 in the pool, so if I had played this, I would have only gotten back about $3,500 or so since there were only three winning tickets I gathered, and I would have been the fourth (I'm using my crazy gorilla math here, so don't hate on me if my numbers aren't exactly right).

So after putting in a theoretical $876 dollars in superfecta plays, I have hit my first (and only one thus far), for about $3,500.

An outlier I'm sure...but just trying to show that you might be doing a lot more harm than good by trying to spread far and wide in the superfecta...the ALL button is NOT your friend when you have a reliable method of selecting overlaid winners in the top spot.

You also need deep pockets to play this way.

My research continues.

[elhelmete]

There are days when I only play superfectas, and I have a simple set of criteria.

Field size 9+, preferably 10+.

Need to see one or two overlays.

I only play 3x3x6x6 tickets or 2x3x5x6 or something like that. Betting a base dime, the unit ticket price is always between $5 and $7.20. That way I can do multiples if desired, or hedge a little. Never single at the top and don't ever spread more than 6 wide at the bottom.

Almost always I pick a race when I can exclude what I deem to be the vulnerable favorite from the top 2 slots.

This is a version of a method Rich Eng used to talk about.

[therussmeister]

I rarely play more than 12 combinations and never play more than 24. My goal is to always get at lest 9/1 return. The total amount bet into the pool is determined before I decide how many combos I will be playing so reducing the combos means more money bet on each one and not more money kept in my pocket.

I have absolutely no problem betting a five horse field as long as I can still get 9/1.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

I rarely play more than 12 combinations and never play more than 24. My goal is to always get at lest 9/1 return. The total amount bet into the pool is determined before I decide how many combos I will be playing so reducing the combos means more money bet on each one and not more money kept in my pocket.

I have absolutely no problem betting a five horse field as long as I can still get 9/1.

How do you know in advance that you are getting 9/1?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

How do you know in advance that you are getting 9/1?

Exacta payouts can pretty much assure that.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Exacta payouts can pretty much assure that.

I think that exacta payouts are not known in advance. Actually there is absolutely no payout that is known in advance, at least not with a sufficient approximation. A 9-1 last flash is very possible to become a 6-1 (or even less) after the pools are closed.

[PhantomOnTour]

Spread at the bottom because even filth can finish fourth

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

How do you know in advance that you are getting 9/1?

Basically through reading many thousands of charts I have a very good idea of the worst likely payout, but sometimes I am wrong.

I am most likely to be surprised in the first few days of both Saratoga and Keeneland meets.