ELO Baseball

[_______]

I have been betting small amounts on baseball (a game I have low knowledge of) using ELO probabilities for each individual game. Not surprisingly, after a short run of wins to start, I'm now underwater.

At this point I'm going to change my approach from betting every game that shows a positive expectation to betting only games where the expectation is 10% or more than the odds offered.

Today's games that meet that criteria are:

Cubs -122
White Sox +143

Just to make the numbers easy, I'll document a flat $100 bet on each game unless laying odds in which case I'll lay the full amount of the bet to return $100 (My actual bet is nowhere near these numbers) and keep a running total.

Today $222 bet.

After tomorrow (5/6), there will be a week of radio silence as I'll be out of internet contact until the 14th but I'll pick up the thread after that.

[Marshall Bennett]

For me baseball is much more difficult than football. By playing 162 games, managers seem willing to adjust rotations and playing time that might cost them a game mow, but perhaps make up for it winning a more important series next week. Unless you study each team with detail almost daily, you'd never really know. With football and so fewer games, no such handicapping other than knowing injuries is needed. I used to bet small amounts on the world series but little else.

[FantasticDan]

I thought this thread was about playing baseball while listening to these guys

YouTube

[_______]

No bets for Saturday, May 6.

0-2 -222

Will be back posting in this thread Sunday May 14

[_______]

Originally Posted by _______

No bets for Saturday, May 6.

0-2 -222

Will be back posting in this thread Sunday May 14

HOU +141 (Game 1 Fiers/Severino)
WAS -200

Total bet 300

[_______]

Originally Posted by _______

HOU +141 (Game 1 Fiers/Severino)
WAS -200

Total bet 300

My bad on not specifying the WAS game. It was game 1 of the doubleheader.

0-4
-522

[_______]

Originally Posted by _______

My bad on not specifying the WAS game. It was game 1 of the doubleheader.

0-4
-522

MIL Even

This is the only bet so far. White Sox are +165 right now and I need +169 to meet the criteria. I'll look later to see if the line moves in the direction needed and may add it if so.

[_______]

Originally Posted by _______

MIL Even

This is the only bet so far. White Sox are +165 right now and I need +169 to meet the criteria. I'll look later to see if the line moves in the direction needed and may add it if so.

Adding White Sox +170

to

MIL Even

Total bet 200
0-4
-522

[_______]

Originally Posted by _______

Adding White Sox +170

to

MIL Even

Total bet 200
0-4
-522

Lost another 2.
0-6
-722

At this point, although it's a small sample I feel like I have an answer and am shutting this down.