I've got major questions about three of the four favorites for the Derby:
Classic Empire - not taking this kind of price on a colt who hasn't run as fast as he did as a 2yr old...one can argue that he's no better than he was 6 months ago. Maybe this is due to his refusal to work earlier this year, which put him behind schedule while others were coming along as planned, and getting better. They simply aren't the same colts they were in November...but maybe CE still is.
Always Dreaming - yet another Pletcher colt who looks like pure gold at GP. This guy went berserk the minute he stepped onto the Churchill surface. He ran the big prep, the big fig, and his best wins it, but I can't trust him at low odds. I also don't like his pedigree for 1m1/4...bottom side most specifically. More on that in a second.
Irish War Cry - my case against him is weaker than the above colts, but I think pace will be his undoing. I think he gets caught up wide in a contentious & faster than average early pace, and doesn't have the stamina to win the battle and the war. A pet angle of mine in the Derby is that the Sire's AWD must be less than the Dam Sire's AWD, and this guy fails, as does
Always Dreaming
My basic premise is that this race is going to come apart late. Don't think it will totally cave in, but the early going will be quick and contentious enough to set up some late charges...most notably from my top choice
Gunnevera (who may make the last charge),
McCracken & Practical Joke
Good luck y'all...I'm off to Baltimore tomorrow because my niece chose the first Saturday in May to get married
. Will be watching the race at Art Donovan's banquet place, where the wedding and reception will be
