My Kentucky Derby Value Line

[PaceAdvantage]

CD Race 12 6:46 (20)

Practical Joke 7/2
Classic Empire 6/1
Irish War Cry 19/1
Irap 21/1
Always Dreaming 22/1
Gunnevera 24/1
Lookin At Lee 27/1
State of Honor 30/1

-----NON CONTENDERS-----

J Boys Echo 45/1
Gormley 47/1
Battle of Midway 49/1
McCraken 52/1

[PaceAdvantage]

If I weigh the race to favor those horses more likely to get the distance and close well into what is projected to be a fast pace, I get this revised line of contenders:

Practical Joke 7/2
Classic Empire 7/1
Gunnevera 14/1
Always Dreaming 17/1
Lookin At Lee 21/1
Irap 22/1
Irish War Cry 30/1

As you can see, this moves up Gunnevera, Always Dreaming and Lookin At Lee and penalizes Irap and Irish War Cry.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Not concerned about the 19 post for Practical Joke considering he already had distance questions and now may get a wide trip?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Not concerned about the 19 post for Practical Joke considering he already had distance questions and now may get a wide trip?

I'll be betting a few more horses other than Practical Joke, that's for sure.

His odds will justify any and all question marks. If he gets a decent trip (which have been few and far between for this horse), he might shock the world a bit. Then again, this is the Derby and a decent trip would be a miracle for most.

[CincyHorseplayer]

With the entire length of the stretch in front of them at the start I think post is almost non concern. A rationalization for losing bets.

[Robert Fischer]

He (may, or) may not get to sit right on the rail, but there is likely to be 6-10 horses that want to run closer to the pace, and 4-6 horses that want to take back.
He will likely get a decent path, and ground loss will be an insignificant concern.

The important questions for him, is whether any forwardly-placed chalk run huge, and how he times his move.

[keithw84]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

With the entire length of the stretch in front of them at the start I think post is almost non concern. A rationalization for losing bets.

I think the inside posts are definitely worse than the outside posts. I always think of Lookin At Lucky getting shuffled back and rallying to get 5th.

As far as outside posts not producing as many winners... It's only been the last couple decades that the race has consistently had 20 (or close to 20) starters year-in and year-out. As recently as 1976, there were only 9 starters!

Also, Nehro ran from the 19 hole in 2011, and he didn't win, but he did hit the board.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by keithw84

I think the inside posts are definitely worse than the outside posts.

From a post I made in a different thread... I did a quick look since 2000. It was quick so I could be off slightly. Posts 15-20 have made up 13 trifecta positions and 3 additional spots on bottom of supers. Posts 1-6 have been in 19 trifecta positions and an additional 7 positions on bottom of super. Nutshell: Horses on the inside have been more likely to hit the board than horses on the outside and have a higher superfecta impact value than horses on the outside. Certainly a good horse can win from outside and if you're high on one then I wouldn't let the PP dissuade you much. If you're on the fence on one then consider auxiliary gate starters do have a tougher time hitting the board overall.

I'm glad to see Classic Empire near the top. He's one I will be using considerably.

[JustRalph]

" As recently as 1976"



As if that was a few years back.

[storyline]

Hey boss, how about a line for a "wet track" with a "fast pace"

[keithw84]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

From a post I made in a different thread... I did a quick look since 2000. It was quick so I could be off slightly. Posts 15-20 have made up 13 trifecta positions and 3 additional spots on bottom of supers. Posts 1-6 have been in 19 trifecta positions and an additional 7 positions on bottom of super. Nutshell: Horses on the inside have been more likely to hit the board than horses on the outside and have a higher superfecta impact value than horses on the outside. Certainly a good horse can win from outside and if you're high on one then I wouldn't let the PP dissuade you much. If you're on the fence on one then consider auxiliary gate starters do have a tougher time hitting the board overall.

I'm glad to see Classic Empire near the top. He's one I will be using considerably.

So doing some quick math, the inside 6 accounted for 19 trifecta positions, the middle 8 accounted for 17 (assuming you included 2000 and there are 51 tri positions), and outside 6 accounted for 17. So coming out of gates 15-20 is as good as coming out of gates 7-14(!)

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by keithw84

So doing some quick math, the inside 6 accounted for 19 trifecta positions, the middle 8 accounted for 17 (assuming you included 2000 and there are 51 tri positions), and outside 6 accounted for 17. So coming out of gates 15-20 is as good as coming out of gates 7-14(!)

The auxiliary gate accounted for 13 trifecta positions and an additional 3 super positions. The inside 6 posts accounted for 19 and 7. That leaves 19 tri spots for the middle 8 posts and another 7 spots for bottom of super. The outside is simply not as effective hitting the board or super but certainly not a death knell as we have seen a number of winners from there. There were a few races with less than 20 starters but the average over the period is 19+.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not great with statistics involving small sample sizes, nor do I pretend to be.

However, I find that having a thorough understanding of any special adversity that may occur from having post 1,2,3 or 18,19,20 is useful.
Now I can apply that insight to specific horses, and projected pace environments.

In addition, if I can't explain the reason for a specific statistic, in simple terms, I don't like to bet on or against that factor.

[Bennie]

Can I get a piece of mcCraken at 52-1?

[big frank]

i'll take a piece of McCraken also--------------50-1 !!!!!!!!!!!!! Come on ,, you are saying he less than a 2 percent chance of winning ??????? I would take 10-1 or higher all day and night long.......hoping for 8-1 sat