Has anyone ever... - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2017, 06:33 PM

Posted as many as 243 picks on here and shown a profit? How about elsewhere? Twitter? Another forum?

I am currently doing just that...albeit it's a very meager 1.01 ROI...

And no, this ROI doesn't include Green Gratto...

Not saying it's going to last, but just saying...of all the people who have ever posted picks on here, hardly anyone keeps track long term.

I remember one guy who posted 100 picks and showed a positive ROI but then stopped.

It's all in the SELECTIONS forum under the "Value Races and Horses" threads.

I know, not much value...but I'm going to keep it going. Sooner or later I'm going to hit a few bombs and watch that ROI balloon...it's bound to happen.

KidCapper · 05-02-2017, 07:55 PM

Heck of a run boss. And kudos for keeping track that long.

Jeff P · 05-02-2017, 08:03 PM

Not trying to take anything away from what you've done Mike.

In my opinion you should be damn proud of what you've accomplished because most of us know how hard it is to do in the first place.

That said, it's been several years since I've seen anyone post several hundred selections at positive roi - but it has been done before:

I think Steve Wolson did it (500 selections if I recall correctly) using his Powerline V5 program.

Then there were those yearly PAIHL contests where 3 players made selections as a team for 15 weeks per season times 8 races per week times 3 selections per race.

If I recall correctly the selections were weighted... the top selection was where you were scored as having bet the most, the middle selection next, and the third selection had you betting the least.

But still... 8 races by 3 horses by 15 weeks works out to 360 selections per season.

I know there were multiple years when the JCapper team I was on showed a positive roi over the course of a season. There was also a second JCapper team that was plus roi over the course of a season.

And we weren't the only team to do that.

There were years when teams from RDSS were plus roi over the course of the season. And if I recall correctly they always managed to get hot in "the playoffs."

Also, what about all those AQU Inner P4 contests?

I never participated in one of those - but wouldn't players at the top of the leaderboard for each of those have made several hundred selections at plus roi over the course of a season?

-jp

.

Fred Mertz · 05-02-2017, 08:36 PM

I went to Churchill Downs today.

Bet $81 and won $70. I'm a loser, but it was lots of fun.

They had about 4 horses schooling per race and I don't know if I saw the future Oaks or Derby winner. That brass bridle nameplate is difficult to read when they're 6 feet away.

Beautiful day and a good time was had by all.

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2017, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

I went to Churchill Downs today.

Bet $81 and won $70. I'm a loser, but it was lots of fun.

They had about 4 horses schooling per race and I don't know if I saw the future Oaks or Derby winner. That brass bridle nameplate is difficult to read when they're 6 feet away.

Beautiful day and a good time was had by all.

Thanks for that. It really helped.

menifee · 05-02-2017, 08:38 PM

Nice job- are you factoring in rebates with ROI. If not, that is even more impressive. Love to know ROI with rebates.

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2017, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Not trying to take anything away from what you've done Mike.

In my opinion you should be damn proud of what you've accomplished because most of us know how hard it is to do in the first place.

That said, it's been several years since I've seen anyone post several hundred selections at positive roi - but it has been done before:

I think Steve Wolson did it (500 selections if I recall correctly) using his Powerline V5 program.

Then there were those yearly PAIHL contests where 3 players made selections as a team for 15 weeks per season times 8 races per week times 3 selections per race.

If I recall correctly the selections were weighted... the top selection was where you were scored as having bet the most, the middle selection next, and the third selection had you betting the least.

But still... 8 races by 3 horses by 15 weeks works out to 360 selections per season.

I know there were multiple years when the JCapper team I was on showed a positive roi over the course of a season. There was also a second JCapper team that was plus roi over the course of a season.

And we weren't the only team to do that.

There were years when teams from RDSS were plus roi over the course of the season. And if I recall correctly they always managed to get hot in "the playoffs."

Also, what about all those AQU Inner P4 contests?

I never participated in one of those - but wouldn't players at the top of the leaderboard for each of those have made several hundred selections at plus roi over the course of a season?

-jp

.

I hear ya Jeff. I was thinking more along the lines of individuals. I think I remember Wolson. Was that on here? It was a long time ago...can't remember. I can go for 500...should only take another month or so at this pace.

AQU P4 contest is only 8 races a weekend (1 pick 4 each day) for a little under 5 months. That's only about 150 or so races by my crazy gorilla math. And that's if you play ever contest day, which isn't required. Plus it's Pick 4s and not win bets like I'm doing.

In any event, it's quite rare. Very rare in fact. On this I think we can agree.

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2017, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by menifee

Nice job- are you factoring in rebates with ROI. If not, that is even more impressive. Love to know ROI with rebates.

No, no rebates in the ROI number. Just factoring in exactly the picks I've posted before the race in those threads.

Vinnie · 05-02-2017, 09:01 PM

Mike:

That is some downright outstanding handicapping. Most sincerely, BIG TIME KUDOS to you!!

Stick · 05-02-2017, 09:03 PM

I thought Ray posted positive for a year of harness picks a few years back. Way more than 200 picks if I am remembering right.

KyRacer · 05-03-2017, 12:58 AM

Nice job PA. You make 3 players that I remember posting over 200 selections with a positive roi.

Back in 2012 atlasaxis beat Saratoga using Ray Taulbot's Pace Computer program. He had 208 selections posted on here. From his post:

Final stats for Saratoga 2012

Total: 208 selections, $416 wagered, $456.70 returned, 28 winners

win % = 13%
ave win mutuel = $16.31
roi = + 9.78

In 2004 Steve Wolsons posted his 500 picks with these results:

500 plays - 158 win ( 32% winners)
$1000 bet - $1107.40, profit +$107.40, ROI +11%

A couple of different styles with win percentages of 13 and 32 and both returning around a 10% roi.

ultracapper · 05-03-2017, 03:10 PM

I posted all my plays for the first quarter of 2016 in the selections forum and finished with a ROI just under $2.00 if I recall correctly. I think it was about 40 total races, so hardly the sample you have, but I tracked it for 3 months for all to see. It's deep in the selection forum history now.

PaceAdvantage · 05-03-2017, 10:09 PM

Had a nice day today (4 for 12 $47.90 returned)...updated totals on the top pick overlay:

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (30 Days):

51 for 255 | $510 Wagered | $538.20 Returned | $1.06 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

AltonKelsey · 05-04-2017, 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by menifee

Nice job- are you factoring in rebates with ROI. If not, that is even more impressive. Love to know ROI with rebates.

One would assume with a break even roi, your profit would be whatever the rebate % is.

PaceAdvantage · 05-05-2017, 02:36 AM

Thursday, top pick went 3 for 9 and returned $27.40

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (31 Days):

54 for 264 | $528 Wagered | $565.60 Returned | $1.07 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)