How do "key" races affect your handicapping?

[Todaysracingdigest]

A key race = two or more horses from a race that came back to win their next start.

I like to look for key races when handicapping Maidens, but also with Stakes races. They seem to show how much more class that particular race had. I'll give those that are out of a key race a longer look when handicapping.

I think there was a Maiden race at Del Mar a few years ago that had six or seven next-out winners which was quite impressive.

[Dave Schwartz]

Our DOS software used to track key races in several ways but at the end of the day we just could not find any way to find an edge from it.

Not saying that it can't work. Just that I couldn't find any.

[VigorsTheGrey]

How is a Class Rating figured...? I know one Class Ranking that shows Arrogate at 129.62 and Shaman Ghost at 121.42. They ( the various ratings and rankings ) each probably have their own distinct criteria, but what, generally goes into a class rating...? I've heard before that speed equals class but are there other factors...?

[thaskalos]

IMO...the most intriguing thing about this game is that, no matter how ill-conceived a handicapping theory may be...it will still pick enough winners to get players excited -- at least for a while.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Todaysracingdigest

A key race = two or more horses from a race that came back to win their next start.

I like to look for key races when handicapping Maidens, but also with Stakes races. They seem to show how much more class that particular race had. I'll give those that are out of a key race a longer look when handicapping.

I think there was a Maiden race at Del Mar a few years ago that had six or seven next-out winners which was quite impressive.

imo...

In some instances it's difficult to determine the quality of the field by looking at the official class designation. Watching how horses come out of races will sometimes give you a clue as to a race's true strength.

The major drawback is that horses change distances, surfaces, move up or down in class, get varying trips from race to race, their form changes etc... So any arbitrary rule like "2 horses came back to win" will produce a lot of random key races that are not actually strong and may miss some that are.

My own approach is look at the makeup of a field and compare it to the typical field for that class. Then I analyze the result via the chart and replay to figure out what happened in the race given the trips, race flow, bias etc.. Sometimes it's very obvious what happened. Sometimes it's not totally clear. So following how the horses run in subsequent races will help clarify the original conclusion.

The key point is that without taking trips, distance, surface etc.. into account there will be too much noise. Also, it's not just Wins that count. For example, sometimes a few horses that were all buried in a race will come back to run massively better at the same class. That's as much an indication the field was strong as if the winner repeated at a higher class.

I agree 100% that maidens and stakes are best races.

1. The quality of maiden races is often hard to gauge because so many of the horses are first time starters or lightly raced. There are also WAY more figure errors in maiden races for that very reason also. So getting the quality right can lead to value.

2. Stakes horses are highly consistent. So there is much less noise. That makes class comparisons a lot easier.

[Todaysracingdigest]

Not sure how a class rating is computed. That's something we don't have. It would be interesting to know how they are made though.

[Todaysracingdigest]

To Dave Schwartz and thaskalos: yeah it could be just one of those things to take into account while handicapping, but not one to use all by itself.

To classhandicapper: solid points and I agree you see some major upward figures in Maiden races.

[jay68802]

I like horses coming out of Maiden races with a high pace figures, was within 4 lengths of the lead and lost ground in the stretch. Since the horse lost ground in the stretch, you tend to get better odds.

[EasyGoer89]

To me and what I do, key races are overrated simply because of this reason. I can properly rate each horse as an individual, and if I do that correctly, I don't need to rate that same horse by rating other horses and comparing them.

If I don't know how good horse A is, why would I know how good horse B is in order to properly gauge horse A by comparison. I think it's easier to cut out the middle man and just rate horses as individuals on their own merit.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Todaysracingdigest

Not sure how a class rating is computed. That's something we don't have. It would be interesting to know how they are made though.

I remember a section in Today's Racing Digest that showed ML odds of the winner side by side with final odds of the winner...Do you have the ability to run a query to show percent of winners that won with HIGHER odds versus being bet down or staying at ML....?

[Todaysracingdigest]

Yes we include the M/L and final odds for all the races listed in the Data Lines. I'm not sure about running a query, but if we can it might have to be one circuit or one track.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by EasyGoer89

...
If I don't know how good horse A is, why would I know how good horse B is in order to properly gauge horse A by comparison. ...

You never have a stronger feeling about one horse's abilities and tendencies than you do another?

There are a million cases a day if you spent all day doing nothing but comparisons where you could feel better about 'rating' one horse over another and it wouldn't be crazy to turn around and then make an evaluation on the latter after a matchup based on the outcome.

I mean, if you don't trust ANY of your opinions on any horses, then I agree completely. Using other horses as a point of reference will be of no help to you. But if you have a solid opinion on horse A, then I have no idea why someone that wants to have a full accounting of then number of nails used in each shoe as part of the past performances would willfully dismiss his own opinion of a horse as a standard.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by Todaysracingdigest

A key race = two or more horses from a race that came back to win their next start.

I like to look for key races when handicapping Maidens, but also with Stakes races. They seem to show how much more class that particular race had. I'll give those that are out of a key race a longer look when handicapping.

I think there was a Maiden race at Del Mar a few years ago that had six or seven next-out winners which was quite impressive.

The problem with using your definition of key race as a handicapping principle is you are two or more horses too late. The money is in finding the key races before any of the horses make their next start.

[AndyC]

To me a key race will validate a fig or make you go back see if your fig was calculated correctly.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Todaysracingdigest

Not sure how a class rating is computed. That's something we don't have. It would be interesting to know how they are made though.

The "RCL" rating on your reports are defined as "Recent Competitive Level". Doesn't that imply that a class rating (or class level) is associated to each race so that it can then be determined at what level (class) a runner was most recently competitive in?