fun derby stats

[sam i am]

Last race Bris speed figure 95 or less:
Mine that Bird last 20 years 1/130
eliminates from win: Gunnevera/Looking at lucky/Sonneteer/J Boy echo


Last race Bris Speed figure plus 11+ from previous race: 0-52
eliminates from win: Irish War Cry/Always Dreaming/Hence


Quirin Speed Points of 0 or 1 (0-77) or speed points of 8 (1-55) last 20 years
eliminates from the win: Girvin (1) Irish War Cry (8) Gunnevera (1) Hence (1)
Looking at Lee (0)

you can thank Derek Simon for these....



David

[PowerUpPaynter]

so your saying RELEASE THE MCCRAKEN!!!!

YouTube

[Julz]

I don't think you can eliminate Gunnevera. He has a powerful turn of foot, a projected fast pace according to timeform and he already made the derby before the Florida derby. In addition I believe he was in the 11 or 12 hole, and as of the date of the Florida derby posts 9 through 12 had only 3 wins in 122 starts. He was in a meaningless race in an impossible position. Also, Javier pulled him hard left and directly hit the rail, based off an article from Steve Haskin at bloodhorse. Despite all of this he still came home the fastest 3/8ths of all derby contenders at 36 1/5. His final 1/8 was 12 /15 and he ran the last 5 furlongs in 58 seconds. Very very impressive. He very well may not win. He could finish last. My only point is he cannot be completely tossed because of his last race. Best of luck.

[Bennie]

One must remember that many of these "knocks" that handicappers use are basically for horses not "winning" the Derby. Never toss any horse completely out of the race if you believe it has a chance to hit the board.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Horses who have never ran in May of their 3YO season have never won the Kentucky Derby dating back to 1901.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Horses who have never ran in May of their 3YO season have never won the Kentucky Derby dating back to 1901.

Post 23 is winless, while posts 1-20 have won 100% of the races.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by Julz

I don't think you can eliminate Gunnevera. He has a powerful turn of foot, a projected fast pace according to timeform and he already made the derby before the Florida derby. In addition I believe he was in the 11 or 12 hole, and as of the date of the Florida derby posts 9 through 12 had only 3 wins in 122 starts. He was in a meaningless race in an impossible position. Also, Javier pulled him hard left and directly hit the rail, based off an article from Steve Haskin at bloodhorse. Despite all of this he still came home the fastest 3/8ths of all derby contenders at 36 1/5. His final 1/8 was 12 /15 and he ran the last 5 furlongs in 58 seconds. Very very impressive. He very well may not win. He could finish last. My only point is he cannot be completely tossed because of his last race. Best of luck.

Gunnevera only ran 9 ft farther than AD, about one length. I like both of them in the Derby.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Post 23 is winless, while posts 1-20 have won 100% of the races.

No favorite has ever won from the 19 hole.

[Andrick]

If you use enough angles like these ones plus a few others you'll find yourself eliminating the whole field and come to the determination that nobody is going to win the Derby this year.

[Julz]

I like them both as well. I kind of get that it was only 9 feet, but the issue was the way caste llano yanked him left directly to the rail. By the time he got there and started, the field was gone and the race was over. Watched the replay a few times and still have no clue what he was thinking. Possibly short distance from the gate to the first turn and he didn't want to get caught wide.

[Longshot]

(1) 16 of the last 17 Derby winners ran a 93 Beyer or higher in their last race before the Derby.
(2) 15 of 17 winners ran 1st or 2nd in their last race before the Derby
(3) 15 of 17 winners total finish for their last two race was 5 or less.
(4) 15 of 17 winners ran a 38.15 second or faster final 3/8 in their last race
(5) 15 of 17 winners had an average of 94 Beyer or greater for their last two races
(6) 14 of 17 winners had between 5 and 7 lifetime races

[yankeelpn]

Originally Posted by Julz

I don't think you can eliminate Gunnevera. He has a powerful turn of foot, a projected fast pace according to timeform and he already made the derby before the Florida derby. In addition I believe he was in the 11 or 12 hole, and as of the date of the Florida derby posts 9 through 12 had only 3 wins in 122 starts. He was in a meaningless race in an impossible position. Also, Javier pulled him hard left and directly hit the rail, based off an article from Steve Haskin at bloodhorse. Despite all of this he still came home the fastest 3/8ths of all derby contenders at 36 1/5. His final 1/8 was 12 /15 and he ran the last 5 furlongs in 58 seconds. Very very impressive. He very well may not win. He could finish last. My only point is he cannot be completely tossed because of his last race. Best of luck.

I like Gunnervera, but....he still seems lethargic on the track.

[Julz]

I have a sneaking suspicion the trainer knows what he has and is hiding him. His two works before Churchill were 5 furlongs in 1:00 and change and 1:01, which is fine. He was done his major works before church, so it's only maintenance this week. He was soundly beaten in the Florida derby but came home strong. He's had 5 weeks of rest. I'm not worried. Think he will be fine.

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Post 23 is winless, while posts 1-20 have won 100% of the races.

Angle of the century right there.

[yankeelpn]

Originally Posted by Julz

I have a sneaking suspicion the trainer knows what he has and is hiding him. His two works before Churchill were 5 furlongs in 1:00 and change and 1:01, which is fine. He was done his major works before church, so it's only maintenance this week. He was soundly beaten in the Florida derby but came home strong. He's had 5 weeks of rest. I'm not worried. Think he will be fine.

Its not the works Im worried about, its the way he looks appears tired and just has that blah look to him.