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05-01-2017, 07:28 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Rain Forecasted For Saturday
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05-01-2017, 08:12 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22
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Per the Digest sire stats by win percentage for mud progeny:
Irish War Cry 19%
McCraken 19%
Practical Joke 19%
Battle Of Midway 18%
Tapwrit 18%
Royal Mo 18%
Irap 17%
Lookin At Lee 17%
Classic Empire 16%
Gormley 16%
Hence 15%
J Boys Echo 15%
Sonneteer 15%
Girvin 13%
Always Dreaming 12%
Untrapped 11%
Fast And Accurate 9%
State of Honor 8%
Patch 7%
*Gunnevera and Thunder Snow had no sire mud record
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05-01-2017, 08:21 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Once upon a time I was paid to forecast the weather for Lexington, KY among other places. A quick glace at the model forecast guidance suggests Friday could be a crappy but improving day followed by decent conditions Saturday. It could be pretty wet Wed/Thurs. I will cap for a Good to Fast main track Friday and Fast track Saturday. Turf probably listed Good Friday and Firm Saturday.
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05-01-2017, 10:54 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Yet another reason to like IWC.
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05-02-2017, 12:12 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Once upon a time I was paid to forecast the weather for Lexington, KY among other places. A quick glace at the model forecast guidance suggests Friday could be a crappy but improving day followed by decent conditions Saturday. It could be pretty wet Wed/Thurs. I will cap for a Good to Fast main track Friday and Fast track Saturday. Turf probably listed Good Friday and Firm Saturday.
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I'm going with this guy.
Great forecast!
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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05-02-2017, 05:48 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,458
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From.what I saw it didn't look that ominous
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05-02-2017, 06:14 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tanner12oz
From.what I saw it didn't look that ominous
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According to my weather channel app, 90% chance of rain Friday and 70% Sat
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05-02-2017, 01:35 PM
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#8
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Educated Speculation
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Where Palm Trees Sway
Posts: 914
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
I'm going with this guy.
Great forecast!
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Me too. Can't argue with that prediction. Although.... it is weather. The only thing certain is uncertainty.
__________________
"Horse Sense" is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
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05-02-2017, 01:41 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Once upon a time I was paid to forecast the weather for Lexington, KY among other places. A quick glace at the model forecast guidance suggests Friday could be a crappy but improving day followed by decent conditions Saturday. It could be pretty wet Wed/Thurs. I will cap for a Good to Fast main track Friday and Fast track Saturday. Turf probably listed Good Friday and Firm Saturday.
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Weather Underground forecasts almost an inch of rain on Thur and 0.3" rain on Fri. In my opinion that would make the TURF yielding for Friday and good to yielding on Sat?
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05-02-2017, 02:16 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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The system looks a little slower so conditions may not improve until late Friday afternoon. Rain on Friday will be light so the track might not be too bad but probably running slow. There looks to be a break between Thursday rain and Friday showers so the turf might still dry out enough to be Good. Saturday still looks decent overall. Can't rule out a later day shower but certainly no washout. The track should be fast for the Derby.
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05-02-2017, 04:00 PM
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#11
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
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Weather may not affect the race, but it looks to be a cool and raw day for the on-track patrons. There will have been nicer-weather Derbies, for sure.
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