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Old 04-17-2017, 07:12 AM   #1
PowerUpPaynter
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Always Dreaming

Im not going to sit here and tell you Always Dreaming's performance in the Florida Derby was not good but of all the possible favorites he certainly is the most vulnerable. In the Florida Derby 4 of the top 5 finishers were at the front the whole way around. Both his other two route races, he got to sit on or right off slow paces and run slow beyers and pick up wins against sub par competition.

Bottom line: Always Dreaming has never won a race that did not favor his running style. Water gets much deeper in Kentucky.


Possible fools gold and very vulnerable.

Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 04-17-2017 at 07:18 AM.
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Old 04-17-2017, 12:14 PM   #2
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Catch-22
Never faced adversity in a route race / May get another friendly trip in the Derby.
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Old 04-17-2017, 01:07 PM   #3
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Local Hero probably doesn't get in. Stablemate Malagacy is another important pace factor.

Since the rule change to 'points', the pace has not been unreasonable.

Always Dreaming is also an 'unknown', rather than a horse that we're all certain will wilt with a harsh pace. Seems push-button, and hypothetically capable of sitting a relaxed E/P trip behind a Malagacy.

Still want to see the Pace Projector and the weather
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Old 04-17-2017, 01:26 PM   #4
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I'm not a huge believer in bounce, but with Todd Pletcher, I feel like he specifically points towards the prep races. For example, One Liner was so impressive in his Southwest win, and now he's off the trail for no specific reason other than not training well.

So I just hope the tank isn't emptied on Always Dreaming.
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Old 04-17-2017, 02:05 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Im not going to sit here and tell you Always Dreaming's performance in the Florida Derby was not good but of all the possible favorites he certainly is the most vulnerable. In the Florida Derby 4 of the top 5 finishers were at the front the whole way around. Both his other two route races, he got to sit on or right off slow paces and run slow beyers and pick up wins against sub par competition.

Bottom line: Always Dreaming has never won a race that did not favor his running style. Water gets much deeper in Kentucky.


Possible fools gold and very vulnerable.
I said the same about American Pharoah and it did not matter. His Rebel Stakes was very similar to Dreaming's allowance. Slow then boom. Then both crushed their final 9F prep.

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Originally Posted by letswastemoney View Post
I'm not a huge believer in bounce, but with Todd Pletcher, I feel like he specifically points towards the prep races. For example, One Liner was so impressive in his Southwest win, and now he's off the trail for no specific reason other than not training well.

So I just hope the tank isn't emptied on Always Dreaming.
I think TAP gets a bad rap. He gets a lot of horses in the big race but ask yourself how many truly fit the bill. I only recall betting on one of them and that was Super Saver. Winning sire line, winning pilot, and fast fractions. AD fits the bill this year. If you like him then thank Classic Empire's effort for improved odds.
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Old 04-17-2017, 02:54 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
I said the same about American Pharoah and it did not matter. His Rebel Stakes was very similar to Dreaming's allowance. Slow then boom. Then both crushed their final 9F prep.


Pharoah did go into the derby with 3 grade 1 wins and a grade 2 win under his belt. let alone 4 100 plus beyers
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Old 04-17-2017, 06:37 PM   #7
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Pharoah did go into the derby with 3 grade 1 wins and a grade 2 win under his belt. let alone 4 100 plus beyers
Giacomo was a nw-2.
Charismatic's only stakes win was the Lexington.
Sea Hero never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Mine That Bird never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Super Saver never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Funny Cide never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Real Quiet never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
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Old 04-19-2017, 07:18 PM   #8
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everyone loves this horse. i just dont get it...
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:05 PM   #9
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This looks to be TAP best chance in a while. If this horse was with BB it would be a no doubter.
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Old 04-20-2017, 07:02 AM   #10
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But doesn't the fact that he has 1 quality win in a race that was speed favoring bother anyone? His other 2 route wins were slow races he sat on the lead vs a bunch of nobodies. He went from a 71 beyer to a 97... bounce?

I almost fell like California Chrome was picked apart more before his derby and he had a much better resume and was a clearly the best horse and maybe easiest derby lock of this century.

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Old 04-20-2017, 11:12 AM   #11
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PUP - Agreed, but it is obvious that the talent is there and the TAP camp is very high on him. However, I feel he doesn't have enough bottom in him so I am looking to others for the win end.
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Old 04-26-2017, 02:17 AM   #12
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what i find to be strange is that you could have gotten 40/50-1 on this horse a day before his fla derby win.

it doesn't take much of a brainiac to see that he was going to be low odds in that race. so much so that the 5-2 - 3-1 was criminally low and you wanted nothing of it.

if you had access to make the KD future bet you were just counting on the horse being a monster and getting rewarded in a HUGE way. i'm sure people have HUGE bets on him @ 40-1. i'm not talking 5/10 bucks. that amount could have been played by the 2 dolla betta. I'm talking many 1k >5k bets to people that had pletchers ear.

obv pletch gets bet quite a bit but this this horse had plenty of fanfare in the inner circle. but it was being seeped out before the race. and there were plenty of clues and innuendos that this was a major player.

will these people be rewarded? this is a cue for all degens to come in here and say "no..he won't win because i played him".......lol
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Old 04-26-2017, 07:05 AM   #13
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gotta sack up and take a stand vs one of the top 3. tossing the right one may be pretty profitable.

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Old 04-26-2017, 07:57 AM   #14
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Smile

So tell us how you REALLY feel!?
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Old 04-26-2017, 08:31 AM   #15
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i mean who was the last horse to go from allowance race to win a big 6 prep to win the derby? Big Brown? he aint no Big Brown man...
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