data for closers,race position & hitting the board

[boys at tosconova]

does anybody have any data going back at least 10 years as to closers/position on the track in relation to hitting the board?

i guess it's pretty hard defining this in order to tabulate it. but let's say horses 15-20th position at the first and even 2nd call.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

does anybody have any data going back at least 10 years as to closers/position on the track in relation to hitting the board?

i guess it's pretty hard defining this in order to tabulate it. but let's say horses 15-20th position at the first call.

Not 10 years, but in 2013, the top 5 finishers at 1st call were 16th, 15th, 17th, 12th, and 18th. Mud track in which Orb won as favorite.

Oxbow ran 6th, and was as close to the lead as any finisher (Palace Malice meltdown race). Oxbow then went on to wire the Preakness at ridiculous odds. Palace obviously won the Belmont.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

10 years also includes dead ass last wins from Street Sense '07 and Mine That Bird '08.

[PhantomOnTour]

The rules of qualification are different now with the changes to the point system. No shot speedballs who won big races as juveniles aren't getting in anymore so the chances of a meltdown have been diminished.

I wouldn't look too far back for this study, maybe 4-5yrs...they're running a different race these days

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The rules of qualification are different now with the changes to the point system. No shot speedballs who won big races as juveniles aren't getting in anymore so the chances of a meltdown have been diminished.

I wouldn't look too far back for this study, maybe 4-5yrs...they're running a different race these days

100% agree with POT. Extremely different era of KD racing.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The rules of qualification are different now with the changes to the point system. No shot speedballs who won big races as juveniles aren't getting in anymore so the chances of a meltdown have been diminished.

I wouldn't look too far back for this study, maybe 4-5yrs...they're running a different race these days

that is a good point. i forgot about that. this tainted data is useless.

okay..4/5 years works, but it is such a small sample size....whatta ya got?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

that is a good point. i forgot about that. this tainted data is useless.

okay..4/5 years works, but it is such a small sample size....whatta ya got?

Even 4 years is bad because it includes the Orb Derby.

And that race was trash.

So, you have 2014, 2015, and 2016. If you want to look at those numbers.... 2015 was a 1,2,3 merry-go-round with Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund. Last year was a perfect set up for Nyquist, who later got exposed.

2014? I'm sure all the Chromies can tell you all about that one.

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby14-results.htm
http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby15-results.htm
http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby16-results.htm

2012 Derby with I'll Have Another is worth a 2nd look though. Bodemeister nearly wired the field in a monster effort to only get beat by a better.

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby12-results.htm

[boys at tosconova]

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Man, Shackleford and Bodemeister ran monster's didn't they?

[boys at tosconova]

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Wow. Forgot how horrid that field was that California Chrome beat.

Did ANYBODY in that field win another race? I'm not even talking about a Graded Stakes race, I'm talking about ANY race.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Wow. Forgot how horrid that field was that California Chrome beat.

Did ANYBODY in that field win another race? I'm not even talking about a Graded Stakes race, I'm talking about ANY race.

i dunno, but AP's field looks pretty weak as well

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i dunno, but AP's field looks pretty weak as well

Dortmund was the favorite in last year's BC Dirt Mile.

Frosted is a multi-graded stakes winner and placer since the Derby and a serious challenger in the UAE Derby.

Keen Ice won the Travers.

Bolo is a Graded Stakes winner on grass.

What did anybody in the CC class do?

[boys at tosconova]

[boys at tosconova]

outside of the orb race commanding curve and exxagerator were the only 2 horses to hit the board.

commanding curve was lol hard to play as well. no horse came from 18 out and it's looking like you have to be better than 15th