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Old 04-08-2017, 09:24 PM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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Kentucky Derby.... winner?

Man, I always like to remain positive, but after the big preps of the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, and Santa Anita Derby you really have wonder if a single horse can go 10 furlongs, much less even 9.

This was a tough weekend to watch for Kentucky Derby hopefuls in which nobody showed a single ounce of anything when the real racing began. The winners simply didn't get passed in long and tiring stretch runs.

I thought this was a pretty good crop. And still could be, but at this point in time, it will be anybody's game come May 6th.

But looking on the positive side, it should be a live and lovely board for the Derby. Favorite should be 10/1. And an underlay.
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Old 04-08-2017, 10:40 PM   #2
Andrick
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I have a feeling I'm going to start to look at the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, as being quite playable at long odds come Derby time, which I never would have thought the weekend that race was won.
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Old 04-08-2017, 11:10 PM   #3
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I have a feeling I'm going to start to look at the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, as being quite playable at long odds come Derby time, which I never would have thought the weekend that race was won.
While I believe Always Dreaming has had the best 9F prep by far, I also have positive thoughts on Hence. I made good use of the All Others button in the final Future exacta wager to account for him and any afterthoughts that sometimes hit the board. The Always Dreaming over All Others (Hence, etc) offered 95-1. It feels like a favorite over something goofy kind of year.
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Old 04-08-2017, 11:36 PM   #4
Andrick
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While I believe Always Dreaming has had the best 9F prep by far, I also have positive thoughts on Hence. I made good use of the All Others button in the final Future exacta wager to account for him and any afterthoughts that sometimes hit the board. The Always Dreaming over All Others (Hence, etc) offered 95-1. It feels like a favorite over something goofy kind of year.
Yeah, I see a few things to like about Hence as well. Showed plenty of finish in his 9F prep and was able to carry that finishing move of his a long way as he started it pretty early in the far turn. He still had a whole lot of length to his stride at the wire too, so I feel pretty good about him getting 10F. He'll be going into the Derby on a positive form pattern as well, whether it be on thorograph or otherwise. Improving from race to race is always nice to see this time of year especially when his best race was his last race. His BSF of 93 was a little weak, but playable in this year's crop when he's at long odds. May just be getting good at the right time. Or maybe not. But his odds say he may be worth including on Derby day.

Last edited by Andrick; 04-08-2017 at 11:38 PM.
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Old 04-09-2017, 11:38 AM   #5
PowerUpPaynter
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I have a feeling I'm going to start to look at the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, as being quite playable at long odds come Derby time, which I never would have thought the weekend that race was won.
+1
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Old 04-09-2017, 03:54 PM   #6
yankeelpn
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Agreed!

1. Gunnevera "Ill take at >10/1"
2. McCraken "Prob 2-3 choice?"
3. Hence "Forgotten horse at nice odds"
4. Girvin "Always wins and another forgotten horse at >10/1, dont leave out of the Super!" 5.Classic Empire "Depends on Ark Derby"

Last edited by yankeelpn; 04-09-2017 at 04:05 PM.
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Old 04-09-2017, 06:29 PM   #7
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Rough thoughts as of now( which will change next week )

Trifecta
Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical Joke, and an Arkansas Derby horse
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical joke, an Arkansas Derby horse and maybe another ark derby horse.
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Old 04-09-2017, 06:44 PM   #8
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but lets not kid ourselves after the way the prep season went do you really think there is going to be any type of formful outcome in the derby?
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Old 04-09-2017, 08:05 PM   #9
arw629
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
Rough thoughts as of now( which will change next week )

Trifecta
Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical Joke, and an Arkansas Derby horse
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical joke, an Arkansas Derby horse and maybe another ark derby horse.
No love for One Liner? He has the most impressive 3 yo win this yr to this point IMO
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Old 04-09-2017, 08:29 PM   #10
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No love for One Liner? He has the most impressive 3 yo win this yr to this point IMO
everything will change for me next week. im just starting to make some type of a rough idea in my head. If one line wins next week yes ill include him same with classic empire
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Old 04-09-2017, 11:16 PM   #11
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McCraken
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Old 04-10-2017, 05:46 AM   #12
yankeelpn
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Ill probably box Gunnevera and McCraken

Last edited by yankeelpn; 04-10-2017 at 05:47 AM.
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Old 04-10-2017, 09:29 AM   #13
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but lets not kid ourselves after the way the prep season went do you really think there is going to be any type of formful outcome in the derby?
No.
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Old 04-10-2017, 10:55 AM   #14
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I only like Hence underneath. He probably can't win the Derby, but he's going to be ignored and could blow up the trifecta.
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Old 04-10-2017, 11:05 AM   #15
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I only like Hence underneath. He probably can't win the Derby, but he's going to be ignored and could blow up the trifecta.
i know a little bit about HENCE. he certainly doesn't have the numbers than other's do. however the race that he comes out of wasn't any worse than the other ones and the horse is starting to put things together on a day to day basis. i will know more about him after he works again next week to figure out if he has a good chance or not.

we still have the Arkansas and Illinois Derby's to get further clues.
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