My Current Derby Top 5

[letswastemoney]

Of course, it's too early to make any definite decisions, but these are the five I like.

1) American Anthem - Lots of talent and speed here. Bred to route on both top and bottom. He does face a difficult pace test in the Rebel if Malagacy goes too.

2) Gunnevera - He sure has raced a lot, which makes the prospect of moving forward less likely. It is hard to knock the Fountain of Youth victory though. He did take advantage of a rapid pace, but drew clear with authority like a good closer should after the fast opening.

3) One Liner - On TimeformUS, this one is fast. It is a concern Todd Pletcher tends to fail in the Kentucky Derby. Some pedigree nerds might argue Into Mischief isn't a good longer distance sire.

4) Gormley - His San Felipe effort will cause the future book odds to go up in value. It looked bad at first glance. Yet, the pace was decent and he sparred with a talented frontrunner in Mastery. Expect a rebound in the Santa Anita Derby.

5) McCraken - Well, he had a setback. The news reports are trending in his favor, as it appears he has not lost too much time. Tapwrit flattered him in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Special Mention

Iliad - The son of Ghostzapper deserves some credit for pressing the San Felipe pace while wide. He hung around longer than Gormley did.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

2) Gunnevera - He sure has raced a lot, which makes the prospect of moving forward less likely.

Wow, how did all those experienced colts who used to win the Derby up until 20 years ago manage to do it when it was impossible for them to move forward?

The reason 3 year olds move forward is because they are young and are maturing. It has absolutely zero to do with the number of starts they have. There's no principle of maturation that says that a horse can move forward if he's working out but not if he's racing.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I always wonder if a horse born late April is more likely to make a big jump derby day compared to a horse born early february

[Robert Fischer]

One Liner was very impressive.
Hope to see another big prep performance (Wood?).

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here's my top 5;


1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

No hierarchy needed just yet. Quite a mess anyway. Thank god! Seriously.

[f2tornado]

As above. The last two weeks killed what I won the previous four. I will probably sit out most of remaining preps then go back to my old standby capping factors; rider, sire line, and fractions. I'm beginning to believe Derby exotics will pay very well this year.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by CIts incyHorseplayer

Here's my top 5;


1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

No hierarchy needed just yet. Quite a mess anyway. Thank god! Seriously.

It's not needed, but it helps me organize even if it changes every week.

I don't understand why some people don't like these posts. They're just discussion points if people want to join in.

[letswastemoney]

Obviously American Anthem ran a clunker, and Gormley's effort last weekend didn't help either. I don't expect much from American Anthem going forward.

It's possible he simply runs better sparring on the lead, but even so, today showed he isn't versatile.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

It's not needed, but it helps me organize even if it changes every week.

I don't understand why some people don't like these posts. They're just discussion points if people want to join in.

I didn't say I didn't like them. First thing I do every time I am on here this time of year is check the TC Trail section. And while I have charts of the best races at the top of the pile I am more interested in how the race is shaping up. Last few years we were staring at mediocre paces and standouts destined to be chalk. This year I think we could have a decent pace and a wide open betting race.