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Old 02-13-2017, 11:13 AM   #1
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2017 MLB win totals.

Atlantis Sports Book in Reno, Nevada has released its 2017 predictions for win totals by all the Major League teams.

AL EAST
Red Sox 90.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Orioles 84.5
Yankees 83.5
Rays 75.5

AL CENTRAL
Indians 92.5
Tigers 85.5
Royals 80.5
White Sox 73.5
Twins 70.5

AL WEST
Astros 87.5
Rangers 86.5
Mariners 85.5
Angels 76.5
Athletics 66.5

NL EAST
Nationals 90.5
Mets 89.5
Marlins 77.5
Phillies 72.5
Braves 71.5

NL CENTRAL
Cubs 95.5
Cardinals 87.5
Pirates 85.5
Reds 73.5
Brewers 72.5

NL WEST
Dodgers 91.5
Giants 87.5
Rockies 79.5
Diamondbacks 78.5
Padres 64.5


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Old 02-13-2017, 02:15 PM   #2
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I will be in Reno in mid March. Teams I'm targeting:

Tigers Under 85.5. This is a team of aging stars kept together to give Mike Ilitsch one last shot at a World Series. Ilitch died the other day, so look for many of the key pieces to get sold off & a rebuilding job.

Texas Under 86.5. This team had great chemistry and an insane record in one run games last year. I've found that teams with one run records outside the norm don't regress/progress to the mean that year. Usually its the next year. I'm also more bullish on Houston, Seattle and I think the LAA can improve off last year's massive injury riddled season.

Marlins Under 77.5. Reportedly a sale in the works. That could mean a selloff. Their #1 starter the past few years, Jose Fernandez, died last September. They are considerably behind the top 2 teams in the division, and we could see a rebound from Harper, and less injuries to Mets staff.

I know you (like myself) are Cubs fans. I pegged their number right at 95 1/2. The team has been very fortunate with lack of missed starts/injuries to starting pitchers the past 2 years. Dexter Fowler going to StL hurts. Yes, Schwarber is back, but his best value is in the games vs AL teams, when he can't hurt you defensively. Wade Davis could be great, but there are questions on the soundness of his arm. The Cubs also draw the AL East as an interleague play partners, and that won't help. They still win the NL Central in ridden out fashion and are a solid threat to repeat, albeit with less regular season wins.
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Old 02-13-2017, 02:24 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
I will be in Reno in mid March. Teams I'm targeting:

Tigers Under 85.5. This is a team of aging stars kept together to give Mike Ilitsch one last shot at a World Series. Ilitch died the other day, so look for many of the key pieces to get sold off & a rebuilding job.

Texas Under 86.5. This team had great chemistry and an insane record in one run games last year. I've found that teams with one run records outside the norm don't regress/progress to the mean that year. Usually its the next year. I'm also more bullish on Houston, Seattle and I think the LAA can improve off last year's massive injury riddled season.

Marlins Under 77.5. Reportedly a sale in the works. That could mean a selloff. Their #1 starter the past few years, Jose Fernandez, died last September. They are considerably behind the top 2 teams in the division, and we could see a rebound from Harper, and less injuries to Mets staff.

I know you (like myself) are Cubs fans. I pegged their number right at 95 1/2. The team has been very fortunate with lack of missed starts/injuries to starting pitchers the past 2 years. Dexter Fowler going to StL hurts. Yes, Schwarber is back, but his best value is in the games vs AL teams, when he can't hurt you defensively. Wade Davis could be great, but there are questions on the soundness of his arm. The Cubs also draw the AL East as an interleague play partners, and that won't help. They still win the NL Central in ridden out fashion and are a solid threat to repeat, albeit with less regular season wins.
I hope I don't "mush" us, but I've got the same exact picks..
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Old 02-13-2017, 02:33 PM   #4
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I hope I don't "mush" us, but I've got the same exact picks..
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Old 02-13-2017, 03:25 PM   #5
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Agree with Valuist on his selections. I might also consider Houston over and the White Sox under, got to think Frazier, Quintana, and Robertson will be gone by the deadline and there will be zero pressure to win now.
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Old 02-13-2017, 05:58 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
I know you (like myself) are Cubs fans. I pegged their number right at 95 1/2. The team has been very fortunate with lack of missed starts/injuries to starting pitchers the past 2 years. Dexter Fowler going to StL hurts. Yes, Schwarber is back, but his best value is in the games vs AL teams, when he can't hurt you defensively. Wade Davis could be great, but there are questions on the soundness of his arm. The Cubs also draw the AL East as an interleague play partners, and that won't help. They still win the NL Central in ridden out fashion and are a solid threat to repeat, albeit with less regular season wins.
1. Injuries to starting pitching. That is always a possibility, but let me ask you this. If you are handicapping a horse race, do you change your pick because you fear your horse MAY get injured? No, you stay with the horse you chose and hope for the best. Many pitchers go for years without injury. And many teams have a disastrous season injurywise; last year's Mets and the '85 Cubs come immediately to mind. I just do not believe that possible injuries are something that should be taken into account. More accurately, I don't think anyone should take the under on the Cubs based on possible injuries.

2. Dexter Fowler. Yes, that will be a loss. We really won't know how big of a loss until we see how Albert Almora develops. We do know that, although Fowler was a good fielder, Almora is considerably better.

3. Kyle Schwarber. Here is what the Cubs had in left field last year.
Ben Zobrist for 19 games.
Jorge Soler for 57 games.
Matt Szczur for 48 games.
Chris Coghlan for 24 games.

That is a total of 148 games. (Some of those were late inning defensive replacements, so let's stipulate that the above four played the majority of the game in left field 140 times.

I compared the stats of the 2016 Cubs left field by committee with the total 2015 stats of Kyle Schwarber. It is by no means a perfect comparison, but it gives us an idea.

In 140 games in 2016 the left field by committee scored 44 Runs.
In 69 games in 2016 KS scored 52 Runs

In 140 games in 2016 the LFC had 90 hits
in 69 games in 2015 KS had 57 hits.

2016 LFC had 60 RBI
2015 KS had 43 RBI.

KS had 16 Home Runs, 3 more than the LFC (in half as many games.

Comparative slash lines in the respective years.
Zobrist 272/386/446/831.
Soler 238/333/436/769
Szczur 258/312/400/712
Coghlan 252/391/388/779
Schwarber 246/355/487/842

Clearly Schwarber is a huge upgrade offensively over those four.

Defensively? Up to the time he was injured, KS had played in 47 Major League games in left field. He will improve and it's not like those guys are world beaters defensively.

So, if I were one who played those over/unders, I would definitely play the over. And if the number were ten wins higher, I would still play the over for the Cubs. That is how good I think this team will be.
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Old 02-13-2017, 06:18 PM   #7
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If someone forced me to make a bet, I'd go under on the Indians.Great for baseball last year and they should win the division but methinks they'll fall just short of the win total
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Old 02-13-2017, 07:05 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
Atlantis Sports Book in Reno, Nevada has released its 2017 predictions for win totals by all the Major League teams.

AL EAST
Red Sox 90.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Orioles 84.5
Yankees 83.5
Rays 75.5

AL CENTRAL
Indians 92.5
Tigers 85.5
Royals 80.5
White Sox 73.5
Twins 70.5

AL WEST
Astros 87.5
Rangers 86.5
Mariners 85.5
Angels 76.5
Athletics 66.5

NL EAST
Nationals 90.5
Mets 89.5
Marlins 77.5
Phillies 72.5
Braves 71.5

NL CENTRAL
Cubs 95.5
Cardinals 87.5
Pirates 85.5
Reds 73.5
Brewers 72.5

NL WEST
Dodgers 91.5
Giants 87.5
Rockies 79.5
Diamondbacks 78.5
Padres 64.5


Comments? Opinions? Great Thoughts? A chance to make a killing? etc,
Early picks -- subject to injuries in the WBC


Diamondbacks OVER
Indians OVER
Yankees UNDER
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Old 02-13-2017, 08:21 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
1. Injuries to starting pitching. That is always a possibility, but let me ask you this. If you are handicapping a horse race, do you change your pick because you fear your horse MAY get injured? No, you stay with the horse you chose and hope for the best. Many pitchers go for years without injury. And many teams have a disastrous season injurywise; last year's Mets and the '85 Cubs come immediately to mind. I just do not believe that possible injuries are something that should be taken into account. More accurately, I don't think anyone should take the under on the Cubs based on possible injuries.

2. Dexter Fowler. Yes, that will be a loss. We really won't know how big of a loss until we see how Albert Almora develops. We do know that, although Fowler was a good fielder, Almora is considerably better.

3. Kyle Schwarber. Here is what the Cubs had in left field last year.
Ben Zobrist for 19 games.
Jorge Soler for 57 games.
Matt Szczur for 48 games.
Chris Coghlan for 24 games.

That is a total of 148 games. (Some of those were late inning defensive replacements, so let's stipulate that the above four played the majority of the game in left field 140 times.

I compared the stats of the 2016 Cubs left field by committee with the total 2015 stats of Kyle Schwarber. It is by no means a perfect comparison, but it gives us an idea.

In 140 games in 2016 the left field by committee scored 44 Runs.
In 69 games in 2016 KS scored 52 Runs

In 140 games in 2016 the LFC had 90 hits
in 69 games in 2015 KS had 57 hits.

2016 LFC had 60 RBI
2015 KS had 43 RBI.

KS had 16 Home Runs, 3 more than the LFC (in half as many games.

Comparative slash lines in the respective years.
Zobrist 272/386/446/831.
Soler 238/333/436/769
Szczur 258/312/400/712
Coghlan 252/391/388/779
Schwarber 246/355/487/842

Clearly Schwarber is a huge upgrade offensively over those four.

Defensively? Up to the time he was injured, KS had played in 47 Major League games in left field. He will improve and it's not like those guys are world beaters defensively.

So, if I were one who played those over/unders, I would definitely play the over. And if the number were ten wins higher, I would still play the over for the Cubs. That is how good I think this team will be.
Your analogy of race handicapping and baseball is off. These are not individual game predictions. These are big picture, what is going to happen to a team during a season, predictions. Injuries are pretty random. They tend to even out over time. If a starting staff is basically injury free for two years, expecting that to even out should not be a surprise.

Let me turn the tables on your analogy; if you were to look at the racing world at the start of the year, would you expect all the top horses to make at least 10 starts? Of course not, because some will get hurt.

I don't question the fact Schwarber is a much better bat than Coglan, Sczcur (sp?) or Soler. He has more overall power than Zobrist, although how much overall better player than BZ is debateable.

But let's look around the division: Fowler goes from the Cubs to the Cardinals. Lance Lynn, a capable 15 game winner, is back after missing all last year. I don't think they overtake the Cubs, but I expect them to win more games than 2016.

The Pirates: Cole was pitching with arm problems last year before they shut him down. When healthy, he's ace quality. But what will be interesting is having the 2 big prospects: Glaznow and Taillon; both are big upgrades over the likes of Liriano and Niese. And McCutcheon is coming off his worst year and the team should benefit moving him away from CF. Brewers and Reds? They are rebuilding but I can see both winning a few more games than 2016.

Cubs still win division but it won't be the geared down 15 length win we saw last year.
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Old 02-14-2017, 03:13 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by valuist
Your analogy of race handicapping and baseball is off. These are not individual game predictions. These are big picture, what is going to happen to a team during a season, predictions. Injuries are pretty random. They tend to even out over time. If a starting staff is basically injury free for two years, expecting that to even out should not be a surprise.
13% of Major League players went on the disabled list in 2015. As you say, when and where those injuries happen is pretty random. There is no such thing as "Due." Because you have not been injured for two or three or ten years does not mean you are "Due" for and injury. Using that 13% figure, a player has one chance in 8 of going on the disabled list. That means he has seven chances in eight of not going on the disabled list. Personally, I will go with the seven in eight.

You also have to look at the individual. Combined, Jon Lester and John Lackey have pitched over 160 innings in 23 straight years-90% of those over 190.
And, no, they are not "Due."

Jake Arrietta has pitched over 150 innings every year he has been with the Cubs and his workout routine makes him a poor candidate for being injured.

By virtue of the way he pitches, Kyle Hendricks is unlikely to sustain any injuries connected to arm strain or overuse.

In any case, you are confusing what my analogy is about. It isn't about whether a player of a horse will be injured. It is about how we regard that possibility.

Because seven of eight players never go on the disabled list during a season, I choose to pretty much ignore the possibility.
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Old 02-14-2017, 03:30 PM   #11
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Since a possible average of 13% of Major League players go on the disabled list, it would appear that one everyday positional player would, at sometime, be on the disabled list. Two things come to mind when handicapping any team's long-term chances of overcoming key injuries:

1. How strong are the bench players compared to other teams in their (A) Division and (B) League

2. How strong are their farm clubs, especially when it comes to pitching staffs, for possible late season bolstering.....In the postseason, it always comes down to the strongest pitching staffs for ultimate chances of success.
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Old 02-14-2017, 03:51 PM   #12
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13% of Major League players went on the disabled list in 2015. As you say, when and where those injuries happen is pretty random. There is no such thing as "Due." Because you have not been injured for two or three or ten years does not mean you are "Due" for and injury. Using that 13% figure, a player has one chance in 8 of going on the disabled list. That means he has seven chances in eight of not going on the disabled list. Personally, I will go with the seven in eight.

You also have to look at the individual. Combined, Jon Lester and John Lackey have pitched over 160 innings in 23 straight years-90% of those over 190.
And, no, they are not "Due."

Jake Arrietta has pitched over 150 innings every year he has been with the Cubs and his workout routine makes him a poor candidate for being injured.

By virtue of the way he pitches, Kyle Hendricks is unlikely to sustain any injuries connected to arm strain or overuse.

In any case, you are confusing what my analogy is about. It isn't about whether a player of a horse will be injured. It is about how we regard that possibility.

Because seven of eight players never go on the disabled list during a season, I choose to pretty much ignore the possibility.
Of the Cub starters, I would say Lackey and Arrieta are at highest risk. Arrieta may be in great shape. But the crossfire delivery he uses is great for creating deception, but it also places more torque on the shoulder and arm. No, I'm not "rooting" for him to get hurt. But I try to be objective.

As for Lackey, he's 38 so its more than a concern about an injury. How much longer can he be effective?

Lester and Hendricks both lower risk. I like the fact Hendricks can win without having to hit 98 on the radar gun and Lester is durable.

Montgomery has no track record pitching high innings. They may have an innings limit for him.

As I write this, I see the kid Reyes of the Cardinals blew out his elbow. He had a great arm, and I wasn't sure if they were going to use him as a 5th starter, closer, or setup man.

Mostie, I know you are old enough to remember the 1984 and 1985 Cub teams. The 1984 edition was the Sutcliffe/Trout/Rutheven/Sandberg/Matthews/Durham team. They weren't going to beat the Tigers that year but should've gotten past San Diego. So it would happen in 1985, right? Then most of the starting staff come up with arm injuries.

And tell the Angels about the 13% DL stat. Last year, they lost all five starters and their closer to injuries last year.

Last edited by Valuist; 02-14-2017 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 02-14-2017, 04:28 PM   #13
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Of the Cub starters, I would say Lackey and Arrieta are at highest risk. Arrieta may be in great shape. But the crossfire delivery he uses is great for creating deception, but it also places more torque on the shoulder and arm. No, I'm not "rooting" for him to get hurt. But I try to be objective.

As for Lackey, he's 38 so its more than a concern about an injury. How much longer can he be effective?

Lester and Hendricks both lower risk. I like the fact Hendricks can win without having to hit 98 on the radar gun and Lester is durable.

Montgomery has no track record pitching high innings. They may have an innings limit for him.

As I write this, I see the kid Reyes of the Cardinals blew out his elbow. He had a great arm, and I wasn't sure if they were going to use him as a 5th starter, closer, or setup man.

Mostie, I know you are old enough to remember the 1984 and 1985 Cub teams. The 1984 edition was the Sutcliffe/Trout/Rutheven/Sandberg/Matthews/Durham team. They weren't going to beat the Tigers that year but should've gotten past San Diego. So it would happen in 1985, right? Then most of the starting staff come up with arm injuries.

And tell the Angels about the 13% DL stat. Last year, they lost all five starters and their closer to injuries last year.
Clearly I am going to have to delete my birthday from my profile. Otherwise I can't do my Jack Benny homage.

I know about the 1985 Cubs. I mentioned them in another post. Did not know about the Angels last year. But how often does that happen? Twice in 30 years?

A few reasons why I think the Cubs will be better this year than last. Yes, I do realize these all lie in the realm of potential.

Wilson Contreras will be the full time catcher. He is a huge upgrade over Montero and Ross offensively. He is a huge upgrade over Montero defensively and about on a par with Ross. He has quite a bit to learn about handling pitchers and framing pitches, but so did every young catcher coming into the league. Also, when he needs a little rest, he has played first base and left field.
Before he was a catcher he played third base in the minors.

Kris Bryant spent the off season learning to hit the ball to right field more. Did he succeed? Well, last off season (before the 2016 season) his goal was to lift the ball more and increase his home run totals. He increased them by 50%.

The most interesting off season endeavor by a Chicago Cub was Jason Heyward's attempt to breakdown and rebuild his swing. He actually bought a house in Arizona to be near the Cubs' training facility and work with the coaches on this endeavor. Recently, there have been several reports in Chicago media about how well that process has gone and how much of an improvement there has been.

We have already talked about Kyle Schwarber.

Then there is the overall youth of the team. These guys were very good last year, yet there is much room for improvement.

So, let's "Root, root, root for the Cubbies, if they don't win it's a shame," especially if they get beat by those stinkin' Mets.
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Old 02-14-2017, 04:51 PM   #14
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Quote:
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13% of Major League players went on the disabled list in 2015. As you say, when and where those injuries happen is pretty random. There is no such thing as "Due." Because you have not been injured for two or three or ten years does not mean you are "Due" for and injury. Using that 13% figure, a player has one chance in 8 of going on the disabled list. That means he has seven chances in eight of not going on the disabled list. Personally, I will go with the seven in eight.

You also have to look at the individual. Combined, Jon Lester and John Lackey have pitched over 160 innings in 23 straight years-90% of those over 190.
And, no, they are not "Due."

Jake Arrietta has pitched over 150 innings every year he has been with the Cubs and his workout routine makes him a poor candidate for being injured.

By virtue of the way he pitches, Kyle Hendricks is unlikely to sustain any injuries connected to arm strain or overuse.

In any case, you are confusing what my analogy is about. It isn't about whether a player of a horse will be injured. It is about how we regard that possibility.

Because seven of eight players never go on the disabled list during a season, I choose to pretty much ignore the possibility.
How many of those 13% were pitchers?
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Old 02-14-2017, 05:07 PM   #15
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How many of those 13% were pitchers?
A lot. One source I saw said more than half.
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