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Old 01-10-2017, 06:46 PM   #31
sjk
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As the years go by I have found more value in the higher odds range. I take it as a sign the pools have become more efficient in the low and medium odds ranges.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:55 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
If I do some "comprehensive work" on my own play this past year, and I fully determine my "edge" in the given pools...can I expect that this "edge" will materialize THIS year as well?


How well do your picks distribute? There should be a similarity between 100 picks, 500 picks, and 1000 picks. I also believe your 1st pick should outperform your 2nd. Your 2nd pick should outperform you 3rd. And down the table. If not-- chuck it, and start over.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:15 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by sjk
This made me curious to look at my record at it seems I lost 103 races in a row last Feb-Mar. Yikes.


I mean this as a criticism of myself - not your handicapping or style of wagering.

If I lost 103 bets in a row I'd find a new sport to bet on. I couldn't handle that long a drought unless God Himself assured me my edge was still there.

I had a period where I was booking action on an exchange (since closed). Some of the terrible longshots were going off way shorter than they deserved even though the odds were a little higher than at the track. So I was booking them. I was actively searching for the worst horses I could possibly find and I didn't win 103 times in a row.
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Old 01-10-2017, 09:17 PM   #34
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Curious, if those were win bets, how many ran 2nd.
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Old 01-10-2017, 09:43 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
Curious, if those were win bets, how many ran 2nd.


I can't tell if you were asking me.

If you were, they were all win bets. I do not recall how many finished second. I still have some records from the period, but they are in +/- for the day on booked bets. I don't have odds, finish position etc...

Generally I would win large numbers of bets in a row with almost all the horses running terribly. Very occasionally a horse would jump up massively despite a long record of being terrible and I would get nailed hard, but my net was very positive.

One time I was angry because I was having a bad day on my regular bets. I booked a horse for the entire remaining value of my account. A massive duel developed, the horse I booked sat on the rail off the pace, the rail opened, he cut the corner, and he opened up 2-3 lengths at the 1/8th pole. I was dying, Out of the corner of the screen another horrible longshot appeared out of nowhere and started rallying. I won the bob. Sickest day of my life gambling. Lesson learned without being expensive.
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Old 01-10-2017, 09:44 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by sjk
I bet mainly exactas and these days I do bet a lot of longshots. Average payoff is running around 14-1


These are one number exactas?
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Old 01-10-2017, 10:12 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by sjk
This made me curious to look at my record at it seems I lost 103 races in a row last Feb-Mar. Yikes.

The last 6 months things have run great. Just goes to show how you have to keep going through the losing streaks.

The next worst streaks I ever had were 62 in 2009 and 59 in 2004.


Better take it easy in 2026; looks like that may be the next year in the cycle.
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Old 01-11-2017, 01:00 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The more often we play this game, the faster we get to really "know ourselves" as players...and the easier it becomes to realize if we are really "made" for this game.

The truth is that, although this game provides thrills and entertainment for many...it can provide consistent profits for only the tiny few who can effectively deal with its many "traps". Play the game infrequently...and you may never really get to know what these "traps" are.


As usual, Thaskalos is on the money.



The Public and the Individual Player, are able to receive 'input(s)' from reality, and interpret it into a 'perception'.
Some of that perception is 'pre-conscious', and some of that interpretation is conscious and calculated.
Once we (the individual) have a perception, we attempt to act in a rational manner by making an optimal decision ('pass' or specific 'wager' strategy).



1 receive inputs
2 interpret pre-consciously
3 interpret consciously or calculate
4 act rationally (perform optimally)


Reciprocity (Loses or Wins), Commitment (we took a stand about a horse or wager type), Social Proof (we like Arrogate in the Travers, but he's 11-1 and all the experts are talking about American Freedom being Baffert's top gun and the biggest threat to Exaggerator. Crowd is safer and probably correct), Authority (although I don't like Silver Ride, The Track Handicapper just eloquently explained why Unbridled Juan is a 'money burner'), Liking (California Chrome is my favorite horse in the world. Lava Man is gonna win one more), Scarcity (There's one more race on the card, or this is the Derby i gotta make a bet, or I'm down to my last $20 in the account...)


just some examples of "traps" that can trigger cognitive bias

Once you start falling into "traps" that pre-conscious interpreting and that post conscious calculation lead to illusion, and that post perception rational behavior goes haywire.
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Old 01-11-2017, 01:21 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
As usual, Thaskalos is on the money.



The Public and the Individual Player, are able to receive 'input(s)' from reality, and interpret it into a 'perception'.
Some of that perception is 'pre-conscious', and some of that interpretation is conscious and calculated.
Once we (the individual) have a perception, we attempt to act in a rational manner by making an optimal decision ('pass' or specific 'wager' strategy).



1 receive inputs
2 interpret pre-consciously
3 interpret consciously or calculate
4 act rationally (perform optimally)


Reciprocity (Loses or Wins), Commitment (we took a stand about a horse or wager type), Social Proof (we like Arrogate in the Travers, but he's 11-1 and all the experts are talking about American Freedom being Baffert's top gun and the biggest threat to Exaggerator. Crowd is safer and probably correct), Authority (although I don't like Silver Ride, The Track Handicapper just eloquently explained why Unbridled Juan is a 'money burner'), Liking (California Chrome is my favorite horse in the world. Lava Man is gonna win one more), Scarcity (There's one more race on the card, or this is the Derby i gotta make a bet, or I'm down to my last $20 in the account...)


just some examples of "traps" that can trigger cognitive bias

Once you start falling into "traps" that pre-conscious interpreting and that post conscious calculation lead to illusion, and that post perception rational behavior goes haywire.


Eloquent post JK, but let's just call it what it is.......a lazy addiction sickness commentary. There are NO traps if you do your OWN work, and for anyone's own sanity, don't listen to any public handicappers and use the mute button non-stop until you need a new remote......How does anyone spend their whole life working in whatever profession, to earn money, then just throw that hard earned money up in the wind of fate/luck/touts when betting the races?........Boggles the mind, doesn't it? Just go play the lotto if you can't do the work, you don't deserve to win.
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Old 01-11-2017, 03:08 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exotic1
Better take it easy in 2026; looks like that may be the next year in the cycle.


As it turns out for the full year 2004 was the best year I ever had and last years results were better than average.

During the losing streak I averaged 3.7 combinations per race for what its worth.
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Old 01-11-2017, 07:58 AM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Eloquent post JK, but let's just call it what it is.......a lazy addiction sickness commentary. There are NO traps if you do your OWN work, and for anyone's own sanity, don't listen to any public handicappers and use the mute button non-stop until you need a new remote......How does anyone spend their whole life working in whatever profession, to earn money, then just throw that hard earned money up in the wind of fate/luck/touts when betting the races?........Boggles the mind, doesn't it? Just go play the lotto if you can't do the work, you don't deserve to win.


On track, you see it quite often. I LOVE it

Fill up those pools everybody! We need the liquidity

My favorite is when someone complains after the race, after losing and doing literally no work. How can you complain when you have zero understanding of what should've happened in the race?

Sharp post.
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Old 01-11-2017, 12:13 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Eloquent post JK, but let's just call it what it is.......a lazy addiction sickness commentary. There are NO traps if you do your OWN work, and for anyone's own sanity, don't listen to any public handicappers and use the mute button non-stop until you need a new remote......How does anyone spend their whole life working in whatever profession, to earn money, then just throw that hard earned money up in the wind of fate/luck/touts when betting the races?........Boggles the mind, doesn't it? Just go play the lotto if you can't do the work, you don't deserve to win.


Make no mistake...almost all of those horseplayers who "do their own work" end up on the losing side too. Appearances are deceiving in this game...and this goes TRIPLE for the internet.

If a year-long handicapping contest were to take place on this board, where each entrant was asked to make, say, a thousand wagers...the results would be truly enlightening. But, as it stands right now...there is nothing to stop anyone here from declaring that "he is a winner", because he "does his own work".

We all know that the long-term winners in this game are rare...but I think it would SHOCK us to find out just how "rare" they really are.
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Old 01-11-2017, 12:47 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Make no mistake...almost all of those horseplayers who "do their own work" end up on the losing side too. Appearances are deceiving in this game...and this goes TRIPLE for the internet.

If a year-long handicapping contest were to take place on this board, where each entrant was asked to make, say, a thousand wagers...the results would be truly enlightening. But, as it stands right now...there is nothing to stop anyone here from declaring that "he is a winner", because he "does his own work".

We all know that the long-term winners in this game are rare...but I think it would SHOCK us to find out just how "rare" they really are.


Yeah, you might be right when you say "almost all", but at least the player can look for ways to improve their games, while the rest are at the mercy of "others" opinions. BTW, you think you got it in you to go 1,000 wagers on this board, for the rest of the year?......Don't bother asking me, I can do it in my sleep......but only if we BOTH commit to a contest...
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Old 01-11-2017, 12:53 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Yeah, you might be right when you say "almost all", but at least the player can look for ways to improve their games, while the rest are at the mercy of "others" opinions. BTW, you think you got it in you to go 1,000 wagers on this board, for the rest of the year?......Don't bother asking me, I can do it in my sleep......but only if we BOTH commit to a contest...


Where is the challenge in beating YOU?
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Old 01-11-2017, 12:56 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Where is the challenge in beating YOU?


I'll put my "B" plays only, that way you'll have a chance..
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