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Old 01-10-2017, 04:51 PM   #16
classhandicapper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
IMO, it takes 1500 plays for a sample size, over the course of 3 years per circuit/track....


It also depends on the type of bets you are making. If you are a pick 6 player, it may take a lifetime. If you are playing mostly 2-1 through 5-1 shots you'll know quicker.

To me, the hardest part of the becoming a pro is not finding a legitimate edge in some situations. It's finding a legitimate edge often enough to get enough money through the windows. That's the main reason I never went past serious part time player. I don't have enough legitimate insights to play a lot more races and I don't pretend I do just to have more action. I'd have to bet a lot of money per race to get enough money through the windows. Given that I also know that the game changes over time and edges can disappear, it's hard to get to the point where you are comfortable betting a ton of money per race even if you have the bankroll and results to theoretically support it. I think going pro probably requires some higher than average degree of recklessness and testosterone. That's goes quadruple if you want to lead a somewhat normal life with a girlfriend, wife, children, mortgage, etc...
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:05 PM   #17
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I wonder how many so called pro's actually have access to inside information, but don't talk about it for obvious reasons.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:22 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
How many player have actually done any comprehensive work on their own play? And know whether they have an edge in a pool? Or know they should take up another hobby? Most play as they are told to play.The question should be: how long does it take to discover if your way is profitable? And what is it going to cost you in time and money to make that conclusion?


If I do some "comprehensive work" on my own play this past year, and I fully determine my "edge" in the given pools...can I expect that this "edge" will materialize THIS year as well?
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:32 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
Figured out the losing streak thing long ago.

Also figured out that a lower roi but better churn rate (higher win %) will probable make you more money with less angst in the long run.

This is part of what the computer boys do. Make a tiny amount regularly, and not worry about making scores.


I don't know about less angst, or huge investments for modest profits. If one continues looking, it is fairly easy to find profitable strategies. Not much on the excitement scale for those who crave such (for whatever odd reason), but way more profitable than most other ways of making money that do not involve something illegal, or require immense amounts of one's life spent doing nonsensical things just because someone else is willing to pay one for so doing.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:35 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I deal with losing streaks by also betting to place when there is value in that pool and by betting two horses to win when there is value on more than one horse. IMO, greater mental stability is worth the cost of feeling like a hero a little more often.


I'll bet place too, as long as the odds are 6-1 or more. I'll even bet show if the odds are high enough. But it all depends on the odds.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:38 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I wonder how many so called pro's actually have access to inside information, but don't talk about it for obvious reasons.


I would agree. I would add...


I'm sure there are pros out there that have solid strategies that they don't speak of, so that other's don't also capitalize on them.

Finally, as things always change in this game, I am sure there are pros who always look to stay ahead of the next change in the game.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:56 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
I don't know about less angst, or huge investments for modest profits. .


I also don't like that strategy. With every super I play, there is always going to be 2 different 3% lines that will pay off at +5000-1, when 1 of them hits. It cost as a $2 unit in the short run. I'm already playing 4- 6 lines, it's very inexpensive to add the extra line.

I'm speaking as someone who has run the screen, I know how it performs-- the precise pattern that it throws. What is common. What is not. How often.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:56 PM   #23
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To play as a 'pro' you need a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses (and you better fix those weaknesses fast), and a ton of confidence in your ability to work very hard and see things that the masses don't for the most part.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:02 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09
To play as a 'pro' you need a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses (and you better fix those weaknesses fast), and a ton of confidence in your ability to work very hard and see things that the masses don't for the most part.


To add: Do you got it in you to bang it out EVERYDAY? If you don't, you'll find yourself missing opportunities that may not come around for a while. Bottom-line, you have to dig it out on a daily basis, with lots of passing involved...
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:13 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09
To play as a 'pro' you need a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses (and you better fix those weaknesses fast), and a ton of confidence in your ability to work very hard and see things that the masses don't for the most part.


1) Yes-I used to detest turf sprints. Now, I love them.

2) Or you could learn to avoid them completely or as much as you can (open claimers at NYRA for me).
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:22 PM   #26
BELMONT 6-6-09
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ABSOLUTE LOSS ACCEPTANCE is essential. Sounds simplistic, but this is crucial as any individual losing wager is virtually meaningless. I observed two legitimate 'pros' operate in the 80's and you would never know if they won or lost by their expressions on their faces after a race. I learned a lesson in loss acceptance.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:32 PM   #27
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This made me curious to look at my record at it seems I lost 103 races in a row last Feb-Mar. Yikes.

The last 6 months things have run great. Just goes to show how you have to keep going through the losing streaks.

The next worst streaks I ever had were 62 in 2009 and 59 in 2004.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:38 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
This made me curious to look at my record at it seems I lost 103 races in a row last Feb-Mar. Yikes.

The last 6 months things have run great. Just goes to show how you have to keep going through the losing streaks.

The next worst streaks I ever had were 62 in 2009 and 59 in 2004.


Just curious, ask this sincerely, is this win betting on longshots?
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:40 PM   #29
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I bet mainly exactas and these days I do bet a lot of longshots. Average payoff is running around 14-1
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:43 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
I bet mainly exactas and these days I do bet a lot of longshots. Average payoff is running around 14-1


Thank you. I assumed it was some sort of high paying method. Just curious as to what type of play it was.
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