Wagering at Beginning of a Meet: Attack or Watch?

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by green80

Oaklawn is a tough track to play, I don't think it makes any difference if it is early or late in the season. There are a lot of horses coming in from the local farms in addition to the big stables coming in. In my opinion, Oaklawn gets the best group of horses for a meet in all the south so it's hard to single out that winner a lot of times.

YOU GOT THAT RIGHT!!!!

[CincyHorseplayer]

First few weeks of meets are great barring it is one that is plagued with layoff horses. Instead of players betting horse abilities they are confused and follow trainers, jockeys, and shippers from higher level tracks. Opportunities are bigtime early. When everybody else is ready to sink their teeth in prices plummet. See it all the time. I would argue the beginning of the meet is the most important time of the whole meet itself.

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

First few weeks of meets are great barring it is one that is plagued with layoff horses. Instead of players betting horse abilities they are confused and follow trainers, jockeys, and shippers from higher level tracks. Opportunities are bigtime early. When everybody else is ready to sink their teeth in prices plummet. See it all the time. I would argue the beginning of the meet is the most important time of the whole meet itself.

that next few weeks can also be lucrative - the trainer that starts out 4/10 gets bet more...and then regresses to the norm

[arw629]

It's supposed to rain in Hot Springs from now through Tuesday so tread lightly? No pun intended ...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail

that next few weeks can also be lucrative - the trainer that starts out 4/10 gets bet more...and then regresses to the norm

Totally true. I use trainer stats a lot but never understood this phenomenon. Show me a red hot trainer and I'll show you one to bet against for the next few weeks because most of his charges have won. Another guy who just got there and his next 10 starters are all 2-3rd start off layoff and/or dropping in class and he is ready to get scalding hot. It's pretty basic isn't it? Good point.

For me I just think most of the mismatches occur at the beginning of meets.

[arw629]

The burning question in everyone's mind is whether or not the Coach will have Mr. Z ready to roll Friday...

[mikekk]

Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail

Early!!

For me, most of my wagering is on my home track (Hastings). They race from Apr - Oct each year. A few horses go to Turf Paradise, Golden Gate, or Portland for the winter, but most of the starters in April have not raced over the winter.

While the horses coming in with recent races are race fit, they are often over bet. Local horses who have been farmed trained, or trained in the Interior of the province (at Desert Park racetrack in Osoyoos) will sometimes win with nice prices....

This can work particularly well if you can find a trainer who consistently strikes early.

I remember a trainer at Hastings named Tony Tomljenovich (rip I'm afraid) who very seldom won more than 10 races per year...but consistently won 3 or 4 races in the first 6 weeks of the season. Not at bad percentage, as he usually had a very small stable. Found out he had a training track out on his farm; his horses always showed one (and only one) work on track...4f in 54.2, or 5f in 107.4. Perfect deception, once you realized his horses were dead fit! Used to spend the first 2 months waiting for him to show up...was usually amply rewarded!

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

8-10 years ago I used to play this meet early for one reason. Identifying short horses at short prices. Lots of horses fade in the stretch at low odds. That stretch used to seem so long.........until they get a few starts......many would fade.

Haven't played it in years though........

Watching TVG on split screen today. Oak lawn: Watching horses fade in the last 1/16th all day. Some things never change

[EMD4ME]

Sam Houston starts tonight, BET with 2 fists early as once they run back and back and back, much more chalk .....