Pace Analysis Software

[traynor]

"Pace analysis" assumes a process of comparing entries. That process assumes that another process exists to determine the probable performance in this particular race by this particular horse. Excluding (for the moment) the other horses, what information is used to determine the probable performance in this particular race by this particular horse? (Also excluded is the trim carpenter's favored response of "good enough for the kind of work we do around here.")

That is the best starting point. Any ideas? Suggestions? Certainties? Beliefs? Knowledge? (That you would be willing to share?)

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by traynor

Excluding (for the moment) the other horses, what information is used to determine the probable performance in this particular race by this particular horse? (Also excluded is the trim carpenter's favored response of "good enough for the kind of work we do around here.")

That is the best starting point. Any ideas? Suggestions? Certainties? Beliefs? Knowledge? (That you would be willing to share?)

The horse with the best projected speed figure will do well on average. How it responds in the stretch, whether it is prone to expending too much energy too early or if it is more likely to conserve.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

The horse with the best projected speed figure will do well on average. How it responds in the stretch, whether it is prone to expending too much energy too early or if it is more likely to conserve.

Absolutely. As interesting as the many long, convoluted, and often deceptively misleading meanderings into "conventional pace analysis" may seem on the surface, if a horse is unable to reach the wire before the other horses, winning is difficult. Meyer figured that out with his "0-Fin" rating way back, and not much has changed in that regard in the interim.

Expending or conserving energy may contribute to whether or not a particular horse--in a group of horses with roughly equivalent projected speed figures (or average pace, or projected final time, or whatever metric is used as an equivalent)--is likely to be at or near the wire at the finish. Expending or conserving energy is unlikely to make a horse unable to finish six furlongs in the dirt in less than 1:10 able to defeat other entries able to finish in 1:09.

So the most basic question might be: "Is this particular horse fast enough to win this particular race against this particular group of horses?" All other considerations aside, that seems a good place to start in analyzing a given race. BEFORE considering "probable pace scenarios," find the fastest horses in the race.

[JJMartin]

Determining Form and trainer intent are 2 other elements that will affect performance. Race type plays a big role, IMO. When a horse is entered into an Allowance or higher, they are going for a win and speed figures are more reliable. With Claiming races, you never know when a trainer is trying to dump the horse because it has health issues or otherwise.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

Determining Form and trainer intent are 2 other elements that will affect performance. Race type plays a big role, IMO. When a horse is entered into an Allowance or higher, they are going for a win and speed figures are more reliable. With Claiming races, you never know when a trainer is trying to dump the horse because it has health issues or otherwise.

As a bettor, I mostly agree. Many seem to be agonizing over trivial differences in race times, while (mostly) ignoring the fact that horses have riders, horses have trainers, horses have owners, and the horse rarely (if ever) gets to do what IT wants to do in a given race. Overlooking (or diminishing the significance of) the human attributes in favor of the (much easier to define as some specific numeric value) horse's past performance record can be costly. Doesn't much matter how sophisticated the mathematical or statistical expertise of the programmer--the tendency is still to look at the world as if it can be clearly defined by a static set of numbers. It isn't that simple.

[traynor]

Time for a long winter break. House hunting in Miami first. Happy holidays to all.

[plainolebill]

Nice thread, Happy Holidays to you as well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by traynor

Time for a long winter break. House hunting in Miami first. Happy holidays to all.

You too Traynor!

[Southbaygent]

VB under the MS Visual Studio 2015 (or 2010 or whichever) is actually still pretty attractive...both as legacy for some and easy entry for others.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Southbaygent

VB under the MS Visual Studio 2015 (or 2010 or whichever) is actually still pretty attractive...both as legacy for some and easy entry for others.

VB has served its purpose and today is only a poor relative of other more attractive and flexible languages. If you are a programmer (either a pro or a hobbyist) you better move ahead and start using something more modern..

[traynor]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

VB has served its purpose and today is only a poor relative of other more attractive and flexible languages. If you are a programmer (either a pro or a hobbyist) you better move ahead and start using something more modern..

I agree to an extent. That extent does not consign Visual Basic (or any other Microsoft technology) to the dustbin of irrelevance based on little more than personal opinion and (possible) anti-Microsoft sentiments. The bottom line is that lots of people use VB, lots of people like Microsoft, and lots of people have extensive code that works perfectly well, has been thoroughly tested, and see absolutely zero advantage in translating/migrating that code into what others may view as a "more modern" language.

I have no difficulty using different languages for different circumstances and situations. As a developer, one of my major activities revolved around fixing the broken work of others, in a variety of languages and formats, that most would declare "impossible to use" because it is more lucrative--and much simpler for them--to discard it and "start over". If I saw some real advantage in migrating the existing code to another language, I would do so. As far as I can tell, NO such advantage exists. Especially given that the current code is VB.

I think anyone interested in using a computer to handicap horse races should learn (at least) basic programming skills. I spent a lot of time and effort locating (possible) resources toward that end on another thread. Many (if not most) of those resources were for Python and Java as starter languages. It think that once one learns the basic concepts, their own personal preferences are the primary determining factor in which language/development platform they select for their own use. I use PyCharm and IntelliJ extensively. I also use Visual Studio on a routine basis. One of the most lucrative projects I have worked on in the past few years required that I learn Delphi (fast) to fix (as usual) someone else's mess. I find such projects both challenging and profitable.

[Hypnotist1]

Orman McGill is closer as I am A stage Hypnotist , but I m also a certified hypnotherapist.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by traynor

"Pace analysis" assumes a process of comparing entries. That process assumes that another process exists to determine the probable performance in this particular race by this particular horse. Excluding (for the moment) the other horses, what information is used to determine the probable performance in this particular race by this particular horse? (Also excluded is the trim carpenter's favored response of "good enough for the kind of work we do around here.")

That is the best starting point. Any ideas? Suggestions? Certainties? Beliefs? Knowledge? (That you would be willing to share?)

Hi Traynor,

You have started an excellent thread that can offer some insight into the computation of the race dynamics of the horse in a race.

Pace is a euphemism for the “rate of motion” or race dynamic by the horse during the race and determines how the horse’s motion is distributed over the race distance; a nonlinear downward sloping curve defines the race distance.

In a vacuum a horse in good condition and well-ridden will typically run at a pace equal to its innate ability, but horseraces are not run in a vacuum and there are external environmental factors that affect a horse’s rate of motion during the race that should be considered.

The primary external factors are the resistance of wind, air, and surface plus the geometry of the racetrack turns.

These resistances are nontrivial and complicated to calculate without an understanding of physics, math, and statistics.

However, that level of academic understanding of the fields of study shouldn’t be required because the solutions can be formulated into your product and will be transparent to the end user.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Hi Traynor,

You have started an excellent thread that can offer some insight into the computation of the race dynamics of the horse in a race.

Pace is a euphemism for the “rate of motion” or race dynamic by the horse during the race and determines how the horse’s motion is distributed over the race distance; a nonlinear downward sloping curve defines the race distance.

In a vacuum a horse in good condition and well-ridden will typically run at a pace equal to its innate ability, but horseraces are not run in a vacuum and there are external environmental factors that affect a horse’s rate of motion during the race that should be considered.

The primary external factors are the resistance of wind, air, and surface plus the geometry of the racetrack turns.

These resistances are nontrivial and complicated to calculate without an understanding of physics, math, and statistics.

However, that level of academic understanding of the fields of study shouldn’t be required because the solutions can be formulated into your product and will be transparent to the end user.

The same argument could be advanced for most other things in horse race analysis. There seems to be a prevalent tendency to regard things as "simple" just because they may seem so (to the casual observer--a category into which most bettors, handicappers, and "experts" fit quite nicely).

As you seem to have discovered, it is not so much that the information is "unknowable" as that it takes a bit more effort to discover (and analyze and calculate) than superficial scanning of "past performances" (in whatever format presented). Well worth the effort, though.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by traynor

If a black box software app can do that with sufficient accuracy to generate a decent profit over time, great. Buy/lease/steal/(or develop) that software and get on with your life. Use the additional time you will have available by using the black box app to ponder the various options of how, where, and why you will spend or invest that profit. Until then, I suggest it may be more useful to develop a basic set of pattern recognition skills and depend more on yourself to do a bit of the preliminary work in race analysis. A fringe benefit is that the skills developed are almost guaranteed to improve the performance of any race analysis software app of any flavor or complexity that you are using or considering using.

Not too difficult. Definitely not expensive. Doesn't require much more than a bit of study and a little critical thinking.

Is this really the best way to solve a problem? Just dive right into software development. Wouldn't it be wiser if you tested multiple screens? Until you can reasonably estimate the order of finish for all the horses, it's going to be a waste to start developing. In other words, does your top horse out finish you second, third, fourth, fifth...consistently throughout? Have you been able to tabulate the results and recognize that you have an edge of some kind? An edge in this game may not be that your top horse runs 1st, but how to play this game when your top horse run 4th, and your exotic pays 5,000 -1. If you've accomplished this already then you are ahead of the majority of player, but you don't need software-- other than to record your decision-- and help the system learn.