Andy Serling Win ROI-AQU Inner Track Meet

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's basically mental masturbation for those with an ax to grind.

I think it's been pretty clearly established through the many years Andy has been around the game, that he is in a class by himself when it comes to on-air horse racing personalities/analysts. Even his many detractors would readily acknowledge this fact.

Very true, at least for me - he is one of only a handful of commentators I listen to. His on air analysis is "must listen to" commentary. His (at times) pompous and pious attitude on this forum has me alternating between having him blocked/unblokced a few times per year.

[Light]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Andy Serling 2016, AQU inner track meet, ROI based on TOP selection only.

Picks today:

Race 1 6
Race 2 1
Race 3 6
Race 4 4
Race 5 3
Race 6 2
Race 7 2
Race 8 2

Today 0/8. Minus $16

If anyone has his picks for Wed-Sat, please post the page/link.

If anyone can help track his winners throughout the meet, please do so. I'd appreciate the help!

I went through this with this whole board in 2009. All I got was hate. So I do not give my opinions now regarding TLG and many other things.

I am the only person I know that ever tracked TLG's picks in details AFTER scratches. Here was his results from the Saratoga 2009 meet:

Originally Posted by Light

Betting top pick to win

364 races

-7.4% ROI

Invest $728 Return $674

Betting top 2 picks to win

354 Races (I missed 1 day)

-16% ROI

Invest $1409 return $1190

Betting top 3 picks in a $1 exacta box

354 Races (I missed 1 day)

-12% ROI

Invest $2036 Return $1786

Data is after scratches. If one of his 4 picks was scratched the others moved up. It worked as much to his advantage as to his disadvantage. I would say scratches helped more than hurt his ROI in all 3 categories.Additionaly,if only 2 of his picks were left after scratches,I only charged him $2 for the exacta box. If only 1 pick was left after scratches,he didn't get charged for an exacta nor for having a 2nd pick.

Go to my post #48 (in the link below) if you want to see the actual Excel sheet with the data. I actually made other studies of him back around that time and they were about the same.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...9&page=4&pp=15

Disclaimer Please do not tell me how I hate TLG. I do not. I could kiss him (No I'm not gay). I'm an open person. My original intention was to see if he actually was a golden goose. He's not. At this point I have made up my mind on his abilities and that's all that matters to me. I am not interested in convincing anyone either way of his abilities or lack of them.I am just trying to save the OP a headache and answer his desire for data on the subject.

[riskman]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If the point of this thread was to help people, you wouldn't be wasting your time with the above...however...

Thaskalos defined in his post#53 what is going on here. You know that.
EMD,Thaskalos and Andy S are all good capapers in their unique approach to the game.
Ego is a big part of this game.It is.sometimes fragile as is demonstrated here on many occasions.
In the interim, this too will pass, if only for a few hours.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Light

I went through this with this whole board in 2009. All I got was hate. So I do not give my opinions now regarding TLG and many other things.

I am the only person I know that ever tracked TLG's picks in details AFTER scratches. Here was his results from the Saratoga 2009 meet:



Go to my post #48 (in the link below) if you want to see the actual Excel sheet with the data. I actually made other studies of him back around that time and they were about the same.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...9&page=4&pp=15

Disclaimer Please do not tell me how I hate TLG. I do not. I could kiss him (No I'm not gay). I'm an open person. My original intention was to see if he actually was a golden goose. He's not. At this point I have made up my mind on his abilities and that's all that matters to me. I am not interested in convincing anyone either way of his abilities or lack of them.I am just trying to save the OP a headache and answer his desire for data on the subject.

Losing 7% for an entire meet betting every race is actually a great performance.

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by SandyW

If you can name a public handicapper that is 50% as good as Andy Serling, please inform me who that person is.
It is the over all info that he give out that matters not what is the top horse in each race.
Nobody better then TLG for over all analyst of a race.

Brooklyn Cowboy, Kevin Cox
David Aragona

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Nick Tammaro had a number of +ROI meets at the NYRA tracks when he was the public handicapper for the ADW platforms. As I recall, he also finished 4th in the 2014 BC Betting Challenge.

Jerry Bossert had a lot of respect before the Daily News fired him. I think you could come up with a number of good handicappers offering public selections on the NYRA circuit.

Andy has a lot of things going for him, not the least of which is that he is really good on camera, especially given the relatively short amount of time he has to get his points across. He packs a lot into five minutes. I would also say he does the most important thing a public handicapper can do - his homework. His information has depth and is reliable.

I tracked daily selections off my blog for Saratoga in 2015. http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=2243

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Light

I went through this with this whole board in 2009. All I got was hate. So I do not give my opinions now regarding TLG and many other things.

I am the only person I know that ever tracked TLG's picks in details AFTER scratches. Here was his results from the Saratoga 2009 meet:



Go to my post #48 (in the link below) if you want to see the actual Excel sheet with the data. I actually made other studies of him back around that time and they were about the same.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...9&page=4&pp=15

Disclaimer Please do not tell me how I hate TLG. I do not. I could kiss him (No I'm not gay). I'm an open person. My original intention was to see if he actually was a golden goose. He's not. At this point I have made up my mind on his abilities and that's all that matters to me. I am not interested in convincing anyone either way of his abilities or lack of them.I am just trying to save the OP a headache and answer his desire for data on the subject.

Thank you for posting but this is exactly what I don't want in this thread. I saw zero discussions of benefit from TLG's picks. I saw zero discussion of races. Zero but hatred.

Yes, TLG has left my mouth sour lately as I don't approve of his behavior but I am not here, creating this thread to destroy him/fight with this crowd etc.

I lost a ton on the AQU inner track meet last year, that's one reason I want to keep myself sharp for this year.

I already reduced my handle on the inner track for various reasons (1 of which was last year's riding styles).

I want and yearn to push myself to discuss races that are upcoming before the race (and sometimes after the race, to review what we/I may have misjudged).

I heard about TLG's positive ROI for the SPA meet and wanted to create a TLG ROI thread since then. I missed the opportunity at Belmont. I missed the opportunity at the recent AQU main track meet. I didn't want to wait another 3 1/2 months.

Yeah, my timing absolutely sucks. It does. I fully admit that. However, I am an adult and keep things in perspective.

TLG has chosen to be a public handicapper. He has chosen to come on here and go back and forth with a solid and loyal client of NYRA.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with me tracking his picks.

If you guys don't like it, too bad. I see nothing wrong with someone tracking a public figure's picks.

I'd appreciate it if the ones who came on here to provide some heat towards me, took that elsewhere. If you don't, I still won't care but I would appreciate it.

After all, many have come on here and screamed TLG has a positive ROI. No one complained about that. So, what's wrong with someone tracking his top selection picks?

With that said: Wednesday has an 8 race card on tap. If old man winter allows....

Who would like to pick a race and discuss it?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

OK...I'll do my best. And, since I consider you a friend of mine...I hope you won't take my remarks too personally.

Your timing with this thread is all wrong...because it comes on the heels of a recent rift between you and TLG on this board. You are trying to present this as a serious and unbiased inquiry into TLG's Aqueduct performance...but anyone who has been reading this board over the last several days is bound to question your motives here.

Now...I get paid to be observant, just as you are...and I'd like you to have the benefit of some of my observations here:

While TLG likes to adopt a confrontational posting style with some of us here...you are not one of the posters that he likes to target. In fact...he has repeatedly told us here what a "great guy" you are...and you yourself have acknowledged this in the past. The current argument between the two of you, which you have referred to as a "TLG attack", is, IMO, mainly driven NOT by TLG's comments towards you...but by YOUR comments toward him -- which have been of a much more "personal" nature. You have even gone as far as to blame TLG's "treatment" of you here as the main reason why you have drastically reduced your NYRA betting handle...which is an obvious exaggeration on your part. While your replies to him have been of a vitriolic nature...TLG has retained his composure when answering you...which proves that he has more respect for you than you give him credit for. Take my word for it...TLG can get a lot more "vitriolic" than he has shown in his interactions with you here.

Before you accuse me of being one of the many TLG "fans" here...please note that I have gotten into more than my share of arguments with TLG here...and I don't particularly care if he considers me a "great guy" or not. I try to call things just as I see them.

I am in complete aggreement with TLG when it comes to you being a "great guy"...but you seem to be after "widespread approval" here...and that isn't likely to happen. The more opinionated you get here, the more people will argue with your opinions...and you will have to get USED to that. That's what makes for interesting online discussions. And, when you start off by telling people here that you are the "purest soul that they are ever likely to meet"...and then you follow this up with wild emotional outbursts where you tell people that "you have nothing to learn from anyone here", while you yourself are "wasting your time on this board"...people are bound to become confused by your behavior -- because it looks too contradictory. The "purest souls" don't usually get bothered by trivial online arguments.

We are just gathering here to amuse ourselves, EMD...and we know that nothing major can result from our conversations here. The give-and-take that sometimes arises between us adds to the fun...and it should be taken in stride. You are taking our interactions here a bit too seriously, IMO...and you are allowing the occasional disagreements between us to dampen your mood. RELAX...and stop taking yourself so seriously.

Thus endeth the lesson.

I consider you a friend as well Thaskalos. Good post

I know what's important in life and always keep that in mind.

As I've said since I got here, I love to shoot the horse manure with people. I also put a disclaimer in 1 of my recent posts ('Gain nothing from them' .This is not meant to those I love), I think you forgot that you're 1 of the ones I respect. I was referring to the illogical haters.

Anyways, it's all good.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

You made me spit out my coffee this morning.....Thanks for the laugh...

You're welcome but I was dead serious.....

When I lose, I will sometimes cap all replays again and again (of the next card I will play) from 7 pm till 6 am, nap for 2 hours, shower get ready and cap again till 11 am and then attack.

I always shoot to have every nugget uncovered. (sire stats, dam stats, dam's kid's stats, all replays, check all timings of races, restudy pace figs, final time figs, bias notes, recent stable placings, workouts, strength of fields, double check run ups etc. etc. etc.).

My gravely ill, only (inadvertent) mentor always told all that would listen, if you want to survive, work harder than anyone. When you do that, find a way to work harder.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I consider you a friend as well Thaskalos. Good post

I know what's important in life and always keep that in mind.

As I've said since I got here, I love to shoot the horse manure with people. I also put a disclaimer in 1 of my recent posts ('Gain nothing from them' .This is not meant to those I love), I think you forgot that you're 1 of the ones I respect. I was referring to the illogical haters.

Anyways, it's all good.

You have no more "haters" here than I have...and I have NONE! No one here "hates" us...it's just that we won't be able to get everybody here to embrace everything that we say...nor should we try to.

Do you remember the movies "The Godfather", and "Shawshank Redemption"? Well...as great as those two movies were...about 5% percent of the people surveyed gave those movies ONE STAR...for a variety of reasons. If greatness such as that could find denigrating critics...then...what chance do you and I have of being accepted by EVERYONE in a forum such as this?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Do you remember the movies "The Godfather", and "Shawshank Redemption"? Well...as great as those two movies were...about 5% percent of the people surveyed gave those movies ONE STAR...for a variety of reasons. If greatness such as that could find denigrating critics...then...what chance do you and I have of being accepted by EVERYONE in a forum such as this?

That is definitive proof that at least 5% of the population,
which is being very diplomatic, have little between their ears.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

That is definitive proof that at least 5% of the population,
which is being very diplomatic, have little between their ears.

I wish we could bring that 5% to the track and hook them onto horseracing !

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You have no more "haters" here than I have...and I have NONE! No one here "hates" us...it's just that we won't be able to get everybody here to embrace everything that we say...nor should we try to.

Do you remember the movies "The Godfather", and "Shawshank Redemption"? Well...as great as those two movies were...about 5% percent of the people surveyed gave those movies ONE STAR...for a variety of reasons. If greatness such as that could find denigrating critics...then...what chance do you and I have of being accepted by EVERYONE in a forum such as this?

Good analogy.

[horses4courses]

There is more than ample evidence that TLG
is very good at his job. No question.

What is most newsworthy to me in this thread
is just how many horse players pay close attention
to the work of public handicappers.

One would think that 90% plus of posters on this site
have their own tried and trusted, kick ass, variety of
home grown speed figures that siphon pari-mutuel pools
with regularity. Computers crunching numbers, plus the
ever popular pencil and racing form methods that are legendary.

You mean to tell me that more people seek the opinions
of paid professionals than they are prone to admit?
Say it ain't so.................

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I wish we could bring that 5% to the track and hook them onto horseracing !

Very true.
They have an open invitation.