Andy Serling Win ROI-AQU Inner Track Meet

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Your whole premise is flawed. If anyone cared enough to start tracking his plays, it would have been done already...it's not like the board has only been around a year or two...

The only people who have EVER posted about tracking Andy's plays over the 17+ years this website has existed, haven't been people who love Andy. Quite the opposite. And even those people never went through with it...even they didn't hate him/care that much...

Actually I started one for his BC races. I actually watched it and took a lot of notes.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134445

[aaron]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

An even better point! If anyone plays NYRA for real, it is imperative that they listen to talking horses and his per race prattle. His information or how he speaks of a horse is more vital than his pick.

That is the best point about Andy's analysis. He is always trying to give the player an edge. If there were no picks and you just listened to the talk you would learn more. The key is the information. Also,the player knows the odds before they bet. Andy doesn't. He does a lot of work and his subtle information can be worth more than, the actual picks. Tracking his roi is ok, but how many players are betting a horse to win every race on the card.
Handicapper Steve Matthews of Newsday has showed a positive ROI on certain meets at NYRA. I would guess Andy has had meets where he has showed a + roi.
The big question does a Public Handicapper showing a positive ROI actually help you win ?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Actually I started one for his BC races. I actually watched it and took a lot of notes.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=134445

Two days isn't a meet.

PA is right, it has been tried before and always fizzles out.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's basically mental masturbation for those with an ax to grind.

I think it's been pretty clearly established through the many years Andy has been around the game, that he is in a class by himself when it comes to on-air horse racing personalities/analysts. Even his many detractors would readily acknowledge this fact.

[aaron]

For those old enough to remember, the original "Talking Horses" with Harvey Pack never gave out picks. The race was discussed and you had to process the information. On certain days, guests did give out picks, but I don't recall Harvey giving out picks.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

ROI is such a small slice of Serling's job.

He could have a $1.50 ROI, or a $0.50 ROI, and it wouldn't have any noticeable impact on the quality of his show.

True, because no one in their right mind is going to bet every race anyway.

The strength of the analysis is the information it may provide. When I was doing the on air cable show for Yonkers, harness racing, one night a horse shipped in from the Meadowlands and was 3/5. But I had seen the horse race at the Meadowlands and it had a poor gait, which meant that it may not be able to handle the half mile track, which has tighter turns. Plus the horse didn't have a good half mile track pedigree, all of which I reported to the on track and tv audience. I said, this horse may break stride. The horse broke and finished last, and I gave out the winner as my second pick, can't remember what it paid but it was a good payoff. After the race two different people who won money on the race came up to me and thanked me. I didn't actually pick the winner. I think the horse that won was my second choice, but my analysis was spot on, and that's what you want out of an on air handicapper, or any professional handicapper.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Your whole premise is flawed. If anyone cared enough to start tracking his plays, it would have been done already...it's not like the board has only been around a year or two...

The only people who have EVER posted about tracking Andy's plays over the 17+ years this website has existed, haven't been people who love Andy. Quite the opposite. And even those people never went through with it...even they didn't hate him/care that much...

So boss I'll ask you this question.

Its OK to come on here and state that Andy has a positive ROI for the spa meet but its not OK to track his picks?

You can't have it both ways..

More. importantly, I'm creating a thread that can only help NYRA handle and you (and others) are screaming blasphemy from the announcers booth. How insane is that???

I enjoy back and forth banter about races I wager on. My vision is posting his picks in advance and we discuss the days contenders in 1 thread for a meet with his picks being the epicenter of the discussion.

How is that a sin?

I'm all ears.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

2) so its OK to discuss Saratoga roi but not aqu inner roi?

Help me understand that please

OK...I'll do my best. And, since I consider you a friend of mine...I hope you won't take my remarks too personally.

Your timing with this thread is all wrong...because it comes on the heels of a recent rift between you and TLG on this board. You are trying to present this as a serious and unbiased inquiry into TLG's Aqueduct performance...but anyone who has been reading this board over the last several days is bound to question your motives here.

Now...I get paid to be observant, just as you are...and I'd like you to have the benefit of some of my observations here:

While TLG likes to adopt a confrontational posting style with some of us here...you are not one of the posters that he likes to target. In fact...he has repeatedly told us here what a "great guy" you are...and you yourself have acknowledged this in the past. The current argument between the two of you, which you have referred to as a "TLG attack", is, IMO, mainly driven NOT by TLG's comments towards you...but by YOUR comments toward him -- which have been of a much more "personal" nature. You have even gone as far as to blame TLG's "treatment" of you here as the main reason why you have drastically reduced your NYRA betting handle...which is an obvious exaggeration on your part. While your replies to him have been of a vitriolic nature...TLG has retained his composure when answering you...which proves that he has more respect for you than you give him credit for. Take my word for it...TLG can get a lot more "vitriolic" than he has shown in his interactions with you here.

Before you accuse me of being one of the many TLG "fans" here...please note that I have gotten into more than my share of arguments with TLG here...and I don't particularly care if he considers me a "great guy" or not. I try to call things just as I see them.

I am in complete aggreement with TLG when it comes to you being a "great guy"...but you seem to be after "widespread approval" here...and that isn't likely to happen. The more opinionated you get here, the more people will argue with your opinions...and you will have to get USED to that. That's what makes for interesting online discussions. And, when you start off by telling people here that you are the "purest soul that they are ever likely to meet"...and then you follow this up with wild emotional outbursts where you tell people that "you have nothing to learn from anyone here", while you yourself are "wasting your time on this board"...people are bound to become confused by your behavior -- because it looks too contradictory. The "purest souls" don't usually get bothered by trivial online arguments.

We are just gathering here to amuse ourselves, EMD...and we know that nothing major can result from our conversations here. The give-and-take that sometimes arises between us adds to the fun...and it should be taken in stride. You are taking our interactions here a bit too seriously, IMO...and you are allowing the occasional disagreements between us to dampen your mood. RELAX...and stop taking yourself so seriously.

Thus endeth the lesson.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos
He does get too emotional at times. Makes one wonder how he handles a prolonged losing streak.

Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Easy. I make sure I study harder and harder. Especially if the streak passes 2 days

You made me spit out my coffee this morning.....Thanks for the laugh...

[Nitro]

Nice post Thaskalos!
But I think your comments are a bit too generous when comes to EMD’s attitude and general behavior on this forum. I’m not going to add anything about that because it serves no purpose.

I will only say that if TLG felt it was necessary to prove anything he would have started a thread like this himself. Those who follow his televised commentary already know his capabilities. Like any other public handicapper, he’s providing what he believes to be worthwhile information – take it or leave it.

I personally congratulate TLG for his persistence and obvious demonstration for his love of the game.

[SandyW]

If you can name a public handicapper that is 50% as good as Andy Serling, please inform me who that person is.
It is the over all info that he give out that matters not what is the top horse in each race.
Nobody better then TLG for over all analyst of a race.

[green80]

If any public handicapper has a positive ROI, it won't be long before he has a negative ROI due to the following he will pick up.

[EMD4ME]

Does this mean I don't have any volunteers for tracking?

[EasyGoer89]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Does this mean I don't have any volunteers for tracking?

I think the time and effort needed to track him is wasted time unless you get fruits for the labor. At the end of the day (or meet) he's either going to show a plus ROI or a minus ROI but either way, it doesn't mean a heck of a lot because it won't really show which selections of his were grade A picks and which ones were picks he was reluctant to make.

I'll tell you the way you can take advantage of this is if you handicapped the handicapper. Is he better at a certain type of race? Hypothetically, Maybe a subset of his picks might show that he's especially good with cheap filly and mare claimers going two turns on the turf in fields between 7 and 9 horses deep. There are tons of subsets and subsets of subsets, just an overall ROI won't glean much at all, its not going to really help you win unless you had much deeper data.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by EasyGoer89

I think the time and effort needed to track him is wasted time unless you get fruits for the labor. At the end of the day (or meet) he's either going to show a plus ROI or a minus ROI but either way, it doesn't mean a heck of a lot because it won't really show which selections of his were grade A picks and which ones were picks he was reluctant to make.

I'll tell you the way you can take advantage of this is if you handicapped the handicapper. Is he better at a certain type of race? Hypothetically, Maybe a subset of his picks might show that he's especially good with cheap filly and mare claimers going two turns on the turf in fields between 7 and 9 horses deep. There are tons of subsets and subsets of subsets, just an overall ROI won't glean much at all, its not going to really help you win unless you had much deeper data.

If the point of this thread was to help people, you wouldn't be wasting your time with the above...however...