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Old 12-11-2016, 09:55 PM   #16
HalvOnHorseracing
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
I've never seen a running ROI, based on top picks or otherwise on NYRA.com.

Figured I'd help start the tracking of it.

I always wondered how much his ROI was at the SPA this summer but he/they never posted his ROI.

Then we had attackers come in and post how he used his top 4/5 picks in determining a winner.

Ambiguity needs to go away.

I thought somebody said Andy's top picks at SAR had a positive ROI? Can't remember where I saw that.

What I was saying was that NYRA.com had his daily picks posted and it would be easy enough to track them if you wanted to do the work.
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Old 12-11-2016, 10:18 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I certainly can't speak for Andy(don't believe we've ever even discussed anything online), but it was my impression that he sequenced his selections in order to illuminate the race, rather than to perform towards an ROI

eg you may see something like


and '' is an interesting horse who has run races just about as good as the and/or , but the is 12-1.
(and he 'hates' the , - where the could actually contend but is a terrible value at a likely 5/2).

or maybe I'm dead wrong, and he's shooting for ROI. (can only make observations)
Either way, i'm sure that in addition to illuminate a race, they do fairly well over time, especially vs. whatever a pick-every-race ROI is supposed to look like.

as far as I can tell, he's the best at what he does.

I agree. He does exactly what a public handicapper is supposed to do.

When looking at public selections, one of the difficulties is placing value on the selections. Obviously not every horse on top has the same probability of winning. There are races where you believe your top pick has a 50% chance of winning, and races where any of the first three choices has an equal probability. Even if you are going to use a public selector, my advice is to assign probabilities to the top three, and look for the overlays.

In talking with other public handicappers, I asked what they consider success. The general consensus seemed to be 25% winners on top is pretty good, 30% is excellent, and a positive ROI is icing on the cake.
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Old 12-12-2016, 01:08 AM   #18
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Andy is very good. But a public handicapper can be valuable to different types of players, in different ways. I've been doing this for a long time and I've had this type of correspondence many times over the years:

horseplayer: Pandy, great day yesterday, thanks!

I'm thinking to myself, great day? I lost $100. I go back over my picks and see that both of my Best Bets lost and I had three winners on top that were all favorites. I email the guy back. What did you hit?

horseplayer: I look over your picks and play the overlays. In the 2nd your third choice won and paid $30 and your second choice ran second. I keyed it on top of your other three picks and hit the trifecta for $800, and I hit the exacta for $110. The in the 8th, your second choice won and paid $19 and your third pick came in second, I hit the exacta for $88. Great day.


You get the idea. I've had people tell me they hit a big Pick 4 and I played the Pick 4 and lost, but I only used the top two, where as they used the top three.

I guess there's more than one way to skin a cat, but my point is, a good horse player, who knows how to bet, will do better with Andy's picks, or any good handicapper's picks, than someone who isn't a good horseplayer, and, he may even do better than the guy who made the picks.
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Old 12-12-2016, 01:42 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Andy is very good. But a public handicapper can be valuable to different types of players, in different ways. I've been doing this for a long time and I've had this type of correspondence many times over the years:

horseplayer: Pandy, great day yesterday, thanks!

I'm thinking to myself, great day? I lost $100. I go back over my picks and see that both of my Best Bets lost and I had three winners on top that were all favorites. I email the guy back. What did you hit?

horseplayer: I look over your picks and play the overlays. In the 2nd your third choice won and paid $30 and your second choice ran second. I keyed it on top of your other three picks and hit the trifecta for $800, and I hit the exacta for $110. The in the 8th, your second choice won and paid $19 and your third pick came in second, I hit the exacta for $88. Great day.


You get the idea. I've had people tell me they hit a big Pick 4 and I played the Pick 4 and lost, but I only used the top two, where as they used the top three.

I guess there's more than one way to skin a cat, but my point is, a good horse player, who knows how to bet, will do better with Andy's picks, or any good handicapper's picks, than someone who isn't a good horseplayer, and, he may even do better than the guy who made the picks.


The other day, Andy made a point about a horse i had planned on singling in my pick 5, as soon as he said it i knew he was right and immediately altered my wager which saved me money. I can't even tell you who he picked in the race, but his information was as good as a winning pick as far as i was concerned. I already have my own handicapping done, so if i listen to anyone comment on the races im about to play, i just use their comments as a supplement vs an end all/be all. To me, this piece of information was essentially adding to some mythical ROI, comments aren't tracked by ROI but they can be just as valuable, they can be turned into cold, hard cash even there's really no way to track them and place an actual ROI number onto them.
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Old 12-12-2016, 01:54 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mailman
I followed Andy at Saratoga, Here is what i found:
1) 4 days he had no picks
2) No jumper picks
3) 1 card cancelled after 5 races
4) Using his top pick only after scratches

356 races 98 winners
Bet $712 Collected $729.80

Mailman


The collected portion of your stats would probably be closer to 800 if you took all the money off these horses that went on them due to andy making the selection public in the first place. The 729.80 essentially overcame the 'andy tax' that players pay if they want to bet on one of his picks, extra impressive to overcome that 'tax' and still show a profit.
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Old 12-12-2016, 02:00 AM   #21
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Andy /Saratoga

Here is what i found:
1) 4 days no picks
2) No jumper picks
3) 1 card cancelled after 5 races
4) Using his top pick only after scratches

356 Races 98 Winners
Bet $712 Collected $729.80



Mailman
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Old 12-12-2016, 02:04 AM   #22
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I agree with most of the above posts. I, too, saw where tlg posted a flat bet profit for the entire Saratoga meeting, and I believe his and his partner's picks on Talking Horses do sway the odds significantly in every pool.
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Old 12-12-2016, 02:10 AM   #23
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Easy Goer 89 Good Point!
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Old 12-12-2016, 07:23 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyGoer89
The collected portion of your stats would probably be closer to 800 if you took all the money off these horses that went on them due to andy making the selection public in the first place. The 729.80 essentially overcame the 'andy tax' that players pay if they want to bet on one of his picks, extra impressive to overcome that 'tax' and still show a profit.


I absolutely agree. We've shared many opinions on horses and I get ticked off as there is a following & a reduced price because of his support of a horse.
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Old 12-12-2016, 07:25 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyGoer89
The other day, Andy made a point about a horse i had planned on singling in my pick 5, as soon as he said it i knew he was right and immediately altered my wager which saved me money. I can't even tell you who he picked in the race, but his information was as good as a winning pick as far as i was concerned. I already have my own handicapping done, so if i listen to anyone comment on the races im about to play, i just use their comments as a supplement vs an end all/be all. To me, this piece of information was essentially adding to some mythical ROI, comments aren't tracked by ROI but they can be just as valuable, they can be turned into cold, hard cash even there's really no way to track them and place an actual ROI number onto them.


An even better point! If anyone plays NYRA for real, it is imperative that they listen to talking horses and his per race prattle. His information or how he speaks of a horse is more vital than his pick.
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Old 12-12-2016, 07:27 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mailman
Here is what i found:
1) 4 days no picks
2) No jumper picks
3) 1 card cancelled after 5 races
4) Using his top pick only after scratches

356 Races 98 Winners
Bet $712 Collected $729.80






Mailman


Great stuff mailman! Maybe you can help track?

By any chance do you have wed thru sat picks?
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Old 12-12-2016, 08:30 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyGoer89
The other day, Andy made a point about a horse i had planned on singling in my pick 5, as soon as he said it i knew he was right and immediately altered my wager which saved me money. I can't even tell you who he picked in the race, but his information was as good as a winning pick as far as i was concerned. I already have my own handicapping done, so if i listen to anyone comment on the races im about to play, i just use their comments as a supplement vs an end all/be all. To me, this piece of information was essentially adding to some mythical ROI, comments aren't tracked by ROI but they can be just as valuable, they can be turned into cold, hard cash even there's really no way to track them and place an actual ROI number onto them.


Exactly.
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Old 12-12-2016, 10:18 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
What are you talking about???

I, simply want to track his top win selections for a meet.

Nothing more, nothing less.


Really dude?
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Old 12-12-2016, 10:20 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage


Really dude?


At least I make you laugh

(And create high volume threads for you )
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Old 12-12-2016, 10:40 AM   #30
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I don't see the upside of threads like these. Without late scratches that might impact the way a race is run, bias insights developed while seeing the first few races run, and late odds, there's almost no chance of showing a profit long term selecting every single race. So what's the point? Maybe it would make more sense to watch the show and chart any time he says he's actually making a play. Personally though, I don't think that's the value of the show either. No one catches everything. The value of the show is in the insights he brings to the table that other handicappers may have missed or the times he is pushing something that may impact the odds, but you disagree with him.
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