Quote:
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Originally Posted by Winger
Nitro,
I fixed your dutch calculator to work with HK odds, since it was written for US odds. I then reran your first 10 days through the calculator, and these were my results.
Code:
Wagered Returned Net Profit Margin
Day 01 $376.90 $196.00 $(180.90) -48%
I've attached my validation. As you can see, the difference is a lot bigger than you thought. |
Hi Winger
You might have tried to fix the Dutch calculator for US returns by incorporating US$ odds versus HK$ odds, but unfortunately you’ve completely failed to observe one of the basic guide lines for even making any Dutch play worthwhile. I’ve posted this same line item on
EVERY Summary page.
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50%
You've apparently completely ignored the fact that when the combined odds (no matter where they’re coming from) on the 3 entries to be Dutched are lowered, the O.A. Profit margin % is also significantly reduced.
So in actuality your so-called “validation sheet” is nothing more than a list of numbers without any actual validation showing the
Dutch calculations themselves.
For the fun of it I thought it might be interesting to see just how
invalid it might be.
I realize this may burst our group’s little bubble, but I’m sure none of them bothered to take the time to check out your calculations. Yet they’ll sure enough jump on any superficial bandwagon thinking that they’ve uncovered some dramatic impropriety.
Dutching Calculations for DAY 1 – 9/21/16 using US$ odds.
R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9…………Results: 10-5-3-8
Dutch - 2 ( 3.8/1 ) – 4 ( 7.4/1 ) – 1 ( 6.8/1 ) - (
$37.00) – (
$37.00)
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 6.8 7.4 BET PRF
$10 $16 $17
$17 $10 $10 $37 $44 119%
$81 $81 $81
R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12 ………..Results: 9-12-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 4.1/1 ) – 1 ( 2.7/1 ) – 9 ( 2.5/1 ) -
$0.00 – (
$37.00)
Code:
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 2.7 4.1 BET PRF
$7 $7 $10
$10 $10 $7 $27 $9 33%
$36 $36 $36
R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2 …………Results: 7-3-1-4
Dutch - 3 ( 0.8/1 ) – 4 ( 6.8/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) -
$0.00 – (
$37.00)
Code:
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.8 5.7 6.8 BET PRF
$4 $13 $16
$16 $4 $4 $23 $5 20%
$28 $28 $28
R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10 ……….Results: 1-7-6-5
Dutch - 4 ( 11.3/1 ) – 9 ( 1.6/1 ) – 3 ( 42/1 ) - (
$42.00) – (
$79.00)
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 11.3 42.0 BET PRF
$5 $25 $86
$33 $7 $2 $42 $44 104%
$86 $86 $86
R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9…………..Results: 5-1-9-11
Dutch - 8 ( 5.9/1 ) – 3 ( 3.8/1 ) – 5 ( 3.8/1 ) - $29.00 – (
$50.00)
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 3.8 5.9 BET PRF
$10 $10 $14
$14 $14 $10 $37 $29 78%
$66 $66 $66
R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9 ………...Results: 4-10-1-12
Dutch - 4 ( 5.2/1 ) – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 12 ( 3.8/1 ) - $17.00 – (
$33.00)
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 3.8 5.2 BET PRF
$8 $10 $12
$12 $10 $8 $30 $17 58%
$47 $47 $47
R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4 ………….Results: 1-8-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 1.7/1 ) – 2 ( 2.1/1 ) – 1 ( 13/1 ) - $0.00 – (
$33.00)
Code:
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 2.1 13.0 BET PRF
$5 $6 $28
$28 $24 $5 $58 $18 31%
$76 $76 $76
R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9………..Results: 7-10-12-8
Dutch - 6 ( 2.2/1 ) – 8 ( 12/1 ) – 12 ( 3.1/1 ) – $0.00 – ($47.00)
Code:
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 3.0 12.0 BET PRF
$6 $8 $26
$13 $10 $3 $26 $13 50%
$39 $40 $39
The original Dutching calculations using the HK odds from 9/21/16 are on this link:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...7&page=2&pp=15
SUMMARY
Code:
HK RESULT US RESULT
PROF% ACTION HK$ PROF% ACTION US$
R1 155 PLAY ($43) 119 PLAY ($37)
R2 67 PLAY $22 33 PASS $0
R3 66 PLAY $20 20 PASS $0
R4 193 PLAY ($30) 104 PLAY ($42)
R5 112 PLAY $48 78 PLAY $29
R6 92 PLAY $33 58 PLAY $17
R7 72 PLAY $47 31 PASS $0
R8 94 PLAY ($31) 50 PASS $0
TOTALS 5 OF 8 $66 2 OF 4 ($33)
BETTING $310 BETTING $146
P$L% 21% P$L% -23%
As you can see the
actual loss of only
23% is less than
1/2 of what’s been erroneously suggested on this particular day. Since this so-called “validation” represents the worst loss of the 10 days listed, I plan on checking the other race days, because I suspect to find similar disparities.
So while the peanut gallery is having their jollies, they unwittingly compromised themselves by making more foolish statements. But that’s fine! I always enjoy a good laugh myself. In fact I find it especially amusing that it’s been conveniently forgotten that on the day of this thread (using US odds) the
Profit margin was up 49%. I guess everyone is doing so well that it must be minuscule by comparison. Now that's a laugh!
