HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 12/4

[AltonKelsey]

"I personally think its funny how you’ve intentionally ignored the ACTUAL hit frequency of the preliminary selections themselves. Because without any consistency the results of the Dutch betting side is really a moot point."

Nitro stealing my commentary without attribution.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I've watched the HK pools long enough to know that massive odds changes can and DO OCCUR at the final flash, often too late for anyone to adjust their bets, if they are dutching.

And no, if you dutch a 9-1 shot and it drops to 6-1, the 'adjustment' to your other dutched horses does not compensate.

Quinellas also move quite violently in many of the races. So betting 5 minutes to post is not viable as a long term practice.

The statement by Nitro that the large pool size prevents large odds changes is in error. The late bettors are also LARGE.

Come on, Alton stop posting general and exaggerated statements like that. You know dam well that it doesn't happen in every race (or to every entry)! I'll only ask you to read these comments and see if you can appreciate my point of view.

Originally Posted by Nitro

So what does this mean? It signifies that the HK pools are much more stable, particularly as the betting cycle closes-in on post time. It would take some extremely large last-minute bets to cause the odds fluctuations you’re suggesting. Of course, there are some minor odds and Quinella pool changes, but they work BOTH ways: As the odds (and Will-pays) drop on one entry, they obviously rise on others.

If you’re trying to suggest that these odds are dropping (from when I’m betting at 3 to 5 mins to post) on JUST the 3 entries I’ve chosen to Dutch is as ridiculous as your entire premise of “inflating the ROI”.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

PER NITRO
Nitro, I note your selections were posted at 11 pm
To the best of my knowledge I down loaded the 1st race hk exacta and win tote board data at about 11:30 PM
I compared my down load win data and compared it to the final data.

the % odds for your 1 horse did not change
the 4 horse % odds ratio differential was 13%, 5% net
the 7 horse % odds ratio differential was 19%, 3% net
that's enough difference for me to want a clear understanding of the impact to my results.

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Nitro, I just ran the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds through your dutch and found no difference in the outcome. WHY?
because the low price horse won and the bet size on the low price horse is determined by the hi odds horse and the high odds horse was the same as the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds.

I use the proportional odds dutch bet and the results between your dutch and mine are exactly the same, in this case 112% without rounding

I’m not sure what you’re viewing, but there were definitely odds changes in the 1st Race between 11:30PM and Post time (~12:00AM)
If I’m not mistaken, I think the concern was what the odds were at 11:55PM (When I placed my bets). There were also minor changes.
Now if there were significant changes and I claimed the Results of my Live betting which might have produced better Dutching results, than those revealed with the final odds, what would you and other skeptics be insinuating? You know exactly what I’m getting at.

So rather then create an atmosphere of uncertainly, using the final (US) odds today should satisfy anyone’s curiosity as to how well the selection process and Dutch betting performed in spite of how well I did personally. BTW just for the record my bet sizes vary dramatically from race to race and are usually much larger than those shown in the base Dutch calculations.

 
Race 1						                       11:30	11:55	Post
Horse No. 	Horse Name 	Weight	Trainer	       Jockey	Draw	Odds	Odds	Odds
1	BORN DRAGON 	           133	C Fownes     Teetan 	12	14	15	15
2	RUGBY DIAMOND 	           133	W Y So       Rawiller 	5	7.6	7.2	7
3	POWER DRAGON 	           132	C H Yip      Schofield 	1	8.1	9	9.8
4	SLEDGE HAMMER 	           130	D Cruz       Moreira 	9	2.8	3.1	3.2
5	GIDDY GIDDY 	           129	J Size 	     Prebble 	8	12	8	7
6	NO LAUGHING MATTER 	   126	C S Shum     Purton 	6	16	18	19
7	FLYING CAPTAIN 	           124	C W Chang    deSousa 	7	7.6	9.5	9.7
8	ATOMIC BLAST 	           121	A T Millard  Chiong 	4	24	18	17
9	ORIENTAL FANTASIA 	   120	Y S Tsui     Callan 	2	8.4	8.4	8.2
10	SOCCER BRAVE 	           120	D E Ferraris Whyte 	3	41	40	38
11	STARRY STARLIES 	   117	P O'Sullivan  Mo 	10	13	13	12
12	PARENTAL SPIRIT 	   113	T K Ng 	      Lai 	11	81	75	73
  

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Race 7		 		
THE BOCHK WEALTH MANAGEMENT JOCKEY CLUB SPRINT, 20/11/2016, 16:40, Group Two, Turf, "B+2" Course, 1200m, Good				
RANK	       1	2	3
PGNO		7	4	6
BET SIZE	0.75	0.13	0.12
BET SUM		0.75	0.88	1.00

And speaking about questions: I don’t quite understand this:
How you can post a 3-entry Dutch calculation at 1:03 AM for the only race you hit (Race #7) when race didn’t go off until 3:08 AM. I mean other than the early line how valid could your calculation even be?

The 3 entries you used were #7, #4 & #6.
The early HK odds were 5.6/1 (4.6/1 US), 5.8/1 (4.8/1 US), & 8.7/1 (7.7/1 US) respectively.
The final HK odds were 3.6/1 (2.6/1 US), 4.5/1 (3.5/1 US), & 7.8/1 (6.8/1 US) respectively.

To be honest, I have no idea what your proportional odds calculations even represent in terms of real money.
Since I'm assuming your "BET SIZE" is based on the "early" odds line, maybe you could show how the two are related in your calculation.

[formula_2002]

nitro, that was my point, there were changes to odds between 11:30 Pm and post time, and those changes can often affect your dutch results, i'll post the two dutch methods later today.

[ROK]

Nitro,

I will say it again. You post your bet amounts 2 hrs after the race has run!!! Why do you do that??? I know why.

It was you who calculated your ROI by using the incorrect odds that inflated your ROI substantially. Not me. I'm not the one who can't comprehend. You're a fraud...and an epic one at that. You got away with it because few people here play Hong Kong and it's very late when you post.

I don't post. I don't like arguing. I felt I had a responsibility to say something when smart standup guys (like Formula) were under the false impression that you wouldn't do something AS INSANE as counting 1-1 shots as 2-1 shots!!!! Who would do that? An idiot? A fraud? I had no idea that you were both. It's still hard to believe. I tried to tip-toe into the fray when everyone's intuition told them that you were that you were full of crap. I just suggested that maybe you made an unintentional error. But you went into one of your long winded, egotistical, condescending (and boring as hell) diatribes. And here we are.

You keep mentioning your 50% winners on 3 horses...or is it 49%, or 47% or is it now 45%...well, now that you're forced to play by the rules and count 1-1 shots as 1-1 shots and not 2-1 shots, you'll be eliminating them from your dutch method and your win% is going to drop even further. But who really cares?

As you well know, I posted numerous times that your SELECTION method was a good one. It's your accounting that sucks. (and ethics)... I even theorized that you might have a positive ROI on your three picks. But then you went on a 4 day run of terrible play and your ROI plunged so now I'm not so sure you have a positive ROI after all.

But I will say it one more time: Your method looks good. The only problem though is it can't be YOUR method. I seriously doubt that you designed anything this good. You're not up to that level. So please answer this question for me. Is this your design? Or were you just hired to sell it? Because I would fire you :-)

goodnight.

[formula_2002]

here are the two dutch calculators.
inputting the USA dollar odds ,low, mid and hi, automatically updates the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator
note that the % profit in each calculator is the same.

the total bet size in the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator is always 1.
It's handy, because in say 76 races I know I have bet $76.

I have also indicated some bells and whistles. such as the min return $1 payout which is based on the % of pool wager.
etc.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

here are the two dutch calculators.
inputting the USA dollar odds ,low, mid and hi, automatically updates the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator
note that the % profit in each calculator is the same.

the total bet size in the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator is always 1.
It's handy, because in say 76 races I know I have bet $76.

I have also indicated some bells and whistles. such as the min return $1 payout which is based on the % of pool wager.
etc.

And here are my 2 Dutch calculations:

Race #1 – Dutch calculations 5 mins before and after Post time.

At 5 mins to Post.

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %	
2.1	8.5	14.0	BET	PRF		11:55 PM
$6	$19	$30				
$30	$10	$6	$46	$47	102%	
$93	$93	$93	

Final Odds

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.2	8.7	14.0	BET	PRF		POST TIME
$6	$19	$30				
$30	$10	$6	$46	$50	107%	
$96	$96	$96	

WOW! There’s certainly a lot to be concerned about there. It actually shows a Deflated profit of $3, because by Post time the odds on 2 of the entries went UP and increased the Profit % margin as well.
Which in essence means I made an additional $3 from when the bet was made.

Oh, and BTW in my haste to get my O.A. Summary posted, I inadvertently included the bet on the race that was Passed (Race #3). So, by deducting that $57 from the total amount bet of $563, the revised Total amount bet should read $506. With a $246 Net Profit the actual Profit % should be 49% (not 44%).

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Nitro

And here are my 2 Dutch calculations:

Race #1 – Dutch calculations 5 mins before and after Post time.

At 5 mins to Post.

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %	
2.1	8.5	14.0	BET	PRF		11:55 PM
$6	$19	$30				
$30	$10	$6	$46	$47	102%	
$93	$93	$93	

Final Odds

 
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.2	8.7	14.0	BET	PRF		POST TIME
$6	$19	$30				
$30	$10	$6	$46	$50	107%	
$96	$96	$96	

WOW! There’s certainly a lot to be concerned about there. It actually shows a Deflated profit of $3, because by Post time the odds on 2 of the entries went UP and increased the Profit % margin as well.
Which in essence means I made an additional $3 from when the bet was made.

Oh, and BTW in my haste to get my O.A. Summary posted, I inadvertently included the bet on the race that was Passed (Race #3). So, by deducting that $57 from the total amount bet of $563, the revised Total amount bet should read $506. With a $246 Net Profit the actual Profit % should be 49% (not 44%).

ok. Would I be correct in saying that you use the USA win pool odds in your dutch calculator and make a live bet based on the calculator's bet size at that time?
If so we have come a long way here!!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

ok. Would I be correct in saying that you use the USA win pool odds in your dutch calculator and make a live bet based on the calculator's bet size at that time?
If so we have come a long way here!!

I’m afraid not. As I’ve said previously, everything I do from the analysis to the betting is based on the HK tote board. I really like the idea of having decimal odd equivalents. Sure, I will at times short change myself in the return amounts, but I guess until I can correct the calculator I’ll have to live with it. It really hasn’t been much of an issue because my Live hit frequency has been so much better. When I’m playing in the wee hours of the morning I really don’t like the idea of doing manual odds conversions because even bigger errors can occur when transposing numbers. You have to keep in mind that during the typical 25-30 min betting cycles I’m not just viewing the odds on 3 entries. I wish it were that easy.
I'm really not very concerned with how anyone interprets the numbers I present here only because I know for a fact that when everything is said and done there's a decent long term profit available.

[AltonKelsey]

Astounding how much lip service is being paid to the simplest nonsense about which odds to use (when both odds boards are exactly the same except for adding ONE point to the actual odds).

Not a word on what the method of selection is.

Useless?

[formula_2002]

ok. do you down load the quinella and win pool tote boards into your program or do you work that also manually.?

At this time I copy the HK boards into excel then the excel macros take it from there.

for USA races I wrote a programs that signs into twinspires and downloads the specified track into excel. I load that file into another which does most of the remaining work.

Some time ago I was even able to place the bet within the program.

But no need for that at this time.. I'm not betting

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Astounding how much lip service is being paid to the simplest nonsense about which odds to use (when both odds boards are exactly the same except for adding ONE point to the actual odds).

Not a word on what the method of selection is. Useless?

Yes Alton, that’s the REAL crux of the matter isn’t it! Without a decent selection process this entire discussion is a waste of time. I’m not a software guru by any stretch of the imagination, but even if I was I would never jeopardize my agreement and long-time friendship with the one person who opened my eyes to a whole new and exciting way of playing this game.

Unfortunately, I can't provide you with any background information about the tote analysis I use. I’m not the developer, just an avid user. The foundation of this analysis is based on the proprietary formulas used to assimilate and solve the questions related to the money movement during typical betting cycles. I do know that the visual results illustrate Betting Patterns that vary from track to track and pool size to pool size. I also know that with the larger tracks the betting intervals used by the tote analysis are 15, 8, and 5 mins to post. The smaller tracks are 10 or 12, 7 and 4 mins to post.

At each of these betting intervals the actual analysis provides a PAR value for the combined betting from all of the available pools on all the entries. At the same time a value is established for each entry. Then it just becomes a matter of comparing the total PAR value with each Entry value at each of the Betting intervals.

When viewing all of this information together, the betting patterns in most cases become very obvious because there's a definite relationship between the PAR value and each Entry value. That relationship and whether or not it changes positively or negatively during the betting cycle becomes the primary focus of each race. From there I’m able to determine at least 2 Key entries along with 2, 3 or in the case of HK 4 others of betting interest. I’ve been using it for quite a while and it was worth every bit of my investment. From what I’ve recently been told from my mentor the Tote analyses programs are no longer for sale.

Originally Posted by formula_2002

ok. do you down load the quinella and win pool tote boards into your program or do you work that also manually.?
At this time I copy the HK boards into excel then the excel macros take it from there.
for USA races I wrote a programs that signs into twinspires and downloads the specified track into excel. I load that file into another which does most of the remaining work.

The entire Live tote analysis for HK is completely automated. How it gathers all the Win, Place and Quinella pool information from the HKJC Web is beyond my understanding. I’m only viewing the output in terms of the Betting patterns in real-time after the program digests all that information. I’m not really concerned with how it works, but only that it does work, and works well.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Clearly you're not wagering what you post. You would've caught the descrepencies after the 1st hit.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Alwaysonpoint36

Clearly you're not wagering what you post. You would've caught the descrepencies after the 1st hit.

Could be the money is rolling in so fast, he didn't notice.

[AltonKelsey]

fwiw, and I've said this before.

I'm one of the few people , and certainly one of the few on this board, who actually has a clue about how the tote works and the relationships of the pools to each other.

Picking out the 'live ones' the day before is nearly impossible. Might be some peculiar thing going on in HK, I haven't researched it .

But try that here in the USA without the closing prices and you'll be in the poorhouse. And even with that information, its a non trivial exercise.

I won't say it can't be done, but if anyone had figured out that Holy Grail, they would have kept it to themselves or sold it for millions.