HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 12/4

[Nitro]

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in ALL but 1 race on the card. Hitting 5 out of 9 races (56%) produced a Net Profit of $246 after betting $563 or a 44% Net Profit margin. The Live final selections turned out to be even more rewarding with hit rate of 78%, and producing even more of a Net profit. The exotics were decent too.

When played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race).

[Nitro]

With regard to this Summary, I'll reiterate in case anyone missed my previous comment in response to the disparities between the HK and U.S. odds when Dutching and their results.

Originally Posted by Nitro

Well there you go! If you now wish to concede that my demonstrated Dutch Win Profit margin of 30% over those 182 races be reduced by 8% that’s your prerogative. But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY!

So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that O.A. 30% Profit margin is actually higher than suggested.

Yes, my Dutch demonstration may be over, but the HK racing continues.
BTW anyone who thinks that I stay up all night through the early AM for fun is as far as I’m concerned expressing a very naïve and imprudent opinion.

[formula_2002]

Nitro, nice going.
Your results are very interesting.
I'll review your results as I would my own.

[ROK]

Formula,

This should be interesting. Unless I am missing a payoff, it looks like a flat bet loss with and without the race that was not included, but a huge return by dutching(?)...hmmm. The shape looks weird too and a bit funky. Most of his wins came early which is normally disastrous when dutching. Maybe you will catch something that I missed as I only eyeballed them throughout the day. Didn't have time to work on them. Have fun!

Nitro,

How would you counter the argument that by using the final odds in your analysis you are also inflating the ROI because you can't get those odds when actually betting at 5 minutes to post? That's got to make a big difference for many reasons. For you to prove that it makes no difference you would have to post your bet amounts at 5 minutes to post and then compare that to the results when using the final odds. (Instead of, dare I say it...posting those amounts 2 hours after the race has run :-) Sorry Nitro but it's true and that still has to be considered a form of redboarding)



Have to run, later.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Nitro, nice going.
Your results are very interesting.
I'll review your results as I would my own.

HERE IS HOW I WOULD REVIEW THE RESULTS FOR ALL 10 RACES IF THEY WERE MINE. ( SINCE I USED FINAL ODDS, I WOULD NOT ALLOW MYSELF TO ELIMINATE THE RACE WHERE THE EXPECTED RETURN WAS ONLY 48% PROFIT)
ACTUAL WINS/EXPECTED WIN = 1.24, I WOULD HAVE WON 24% MORE RACES THAN EXPECTED
60, $1 FLAT BETS RETURNED $ 23.60, 21% LOSS.EXPECTED LOSS WOULD BE THE 17.5% TRACK TAKE OUT
TOTAL BET SIZE FOR ALL 10 RACES = $687.00, RETURNING $750.20 FOR A 9% PROFIT.
I WOULLD BE MINDFULL THAT THE $298.20 RETURN IN THE 5TH RACE WAS MORE THAN TWO TIMES THE RETURN OF ANY OTHER RACE.
SINCE THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH RACES TO DO AN INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS, I WOULD NOTE THAT I HAD WON WITH THE FAVORITE IN 3 OF 5 RACES. THE FAVORITE WON 5 OF 10 RACES WITHOUT ANY HANDICAPPING.
IN THE FUTURE IF I WANT TO PLAY IN THE REAL WORLD, I MUST KEEP TRACK OF MY ACTUAL BET SIZE AND THE FINAL TOTE BOARD ODDS

I WOULD BE PLEASED WITH MY RESULTS AND LOOK FORWARD TO THE NEXT 500 RACES

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ROK

Nitro,
How would you counter the argument that by using the final odds in your analysis you are also inflating the ROI because you can't get those odds when actually betting at 5 minutes to post? That's got to make a big difference for many reasons. For you to prove that it makes no difference you would have to post your bet amounts at 5 minutes to post and then compare that to the results when using the final odds. (Instead of, dare I say it...posting those amounts 2 hours after the race has run :-) Sorry Nitro but it's true and that still has to be considered a form of redboarding)

NO ROK, Sorry but I really do feel for you. And for you to carry on like this and even propose such a pathetic “argument” makes you look even more foolish than some of you previous comments. In reality there is No validity to your argument.

I say this because if you even bothered to closely follow HK racing (particularly the tote board activities) at all you would recognize an immediate and abysmal flaw in your premise. There are typically MILLIONS of dollars in the HK Win pool alone in each and every race at already 15 minutes to post. (The only possible comparison to the betting on racing here in the states would be at events like the BC races). Otherwise, any tote pools representing the everyday betting activities at tracks in No. America PALE by comparison.

So what does this mean? It signifies that the HK pools are much more stable, particularly as the betting cycle closes-in on post time. It would take some extremely large last-minute bets to cause the odds fluctuations you’re suggesting. Of course, there are some minor odds and Quinella pool changes, but they work BOTH ways: As the odds (and Will-pays) drop on one entry, they obviously rise on others.

If you’re trying to suggest that these odds are dropping (from when I’m betting at 3 to 5 mins to post) on JUST the 3 entries I’ve chosen to Dutch is as ridiculous as your entire premise of “inflating the ROI”.

I’ve choosen to use the final (U.S.) odds when posting the Dutching results to represent the reality of the actual returns no matter what the odds may have been a few minutes earlier. This is done to remove any possible doubts about how the Dutching process is ACTUALLY performing. To even suggest that this is some form of “red-boarding” is absolutely ridiculous and YOU know it!

Your other comment:

Originally Posted by ROK

The shape looks weird too and a bit funky. Most of his wins came early which is normally disastrous when dutching.

Demonstrates how little you understand about the entire concept of Duching (and really betting in general).
When you have a known historical profile of your personal O.A. betting accomplishments for typical race cards, it’s not uncommon to take advantage of that when playing on a regular basis. WHY?
Because it’s just as significant to the O.A. Profit margin to Win a bet as it is in avoiding a potentially Losing bet. I’m not going to constantly rehash this common sense philosophy, but if you’re really interested, my previous comments are posted:
Post #52 & #60
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=4&pp=15
Post #63
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...5&page=5&pp=15

It never ceases to amaze me how some people can put forth cynical commentary without consideration or acknowledgement of everything that might be involved in any particular topic. But typically that’s the ploy which is used in an attempt to bolster credibility for those type of superficial comments.

[ROK]

You sound terrified...and you should be. Because you know where I'm heading next.

Let me ask you a very simple question: From now on, when posting your plays for Hong Kong, which odds display are you going to use: HK or USA?

Because: If you choose HK, everyone will know you're a major fraud. If you choose USA...then I want an apology or a "thank you"....

As you well know...I tried to give you a way out...a way to "save face" as it were. I knew what you were doing. What I didn't know was why. Were you making an innocent mistake? Were you just bad at simple math? Or, were you a fraud?

But now I know: You REALLY ARE bad at math...AND a major fraud... ;-)

Hey, If your so called "Dutching" methodology is any good...hell, I'll use it myself...but first ...two words...PROVE IT!!!

P.S...if the odds never change at Hong Kong...then what's the point of your "Live Bets"? Damn, will you ever tell the truth???

[formula_2002]

PER NITRO

I say this because if you even bothered to closely follow HK racing (particularly the tote board activities) at all you would recognize an immediate and abysmal flaw in your premise. There are typically MILLIONS of dollars in the HK Win pool alone in each and every race at already 15 minutes to post. (The only possible comparison to the betting on racing here in the states would be at events like the BC races). Otherwise, any tote pools representing the everyday betting activities at tracks in No. America PALE by comparison.

Nitro, I note your selections were posted at 11 pm
To the best of my knowledge I down loaded the 1st race hk exacta and win tote board data at about 11:30 PM
I compared my down load win data and compared it to the final data.

the % odds for your 1 horse did not change
the 4 horse % odds ratio differential was 13%, 5% net
the 7 horse % odds ratio differential was 19%, 3% net
that's enough difference for me to want a clear understanding of the impact to my results.

see the attached

[AltonKelsey]

I've watched the HK pools long enough to know that massive odds changes can and DO OCCUR at the final flash, often too late for anyone to adjust their bets, if they are dutching.

And no, if you dutch a 9-1 shot and it drops to 6-1, the 'adjustment' to your other dutched horses does not compensate.

Quinellas also move quite violently in many of the races. So betting 5 minutes to post is not viable as a long term practice.

The statement by Nitro that the large pool size prevents large odds changes is in error. The late bettors are also LARGE.

[formula_2002]

.3Nitro, I just ran the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds through your dutch and found no difference in the outcome. WHY?
because the low price horse won and the bet size on the low price horse is determined by the hi odds horse and the high odds horse was the same as the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds.

I use the proportional odds dutch bet and the results between your dutch and mine are exactly the same, in this case 112% without rounding

[AltonKelsey]

Eyeballing a few races, I don't see the supposed error in calculating the odds that was discussed.

Was that fixed , or did it never happen?

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by ROK

.....Hey, If your so called "Dutching" methodology is any good...hell, I'll use it myself...but first ...two words...PROVE IT!!!

There is nothing magical about dutching, it's been around since the first bet was placed on a race. That's what bookmakers do.

Too much being made of the dutching, not enough discussion of how to get the winner in the top 3 picks. Dutching useless without lots of winners. Due bet or not, a healthy win % without big losing streaks is needed.

Notice how often the #1 is included. That's because this is the highweight and frequently a favorite or a back class horse. There, secrets out!

If this works at all , I suspect it's exclusive to HK Racing, and can't be ported to say, AQU or SA.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought Nitro was a dickhead at one point. Realized the guy can play. What I didn't realize was he had a fan club! I never see you guys anywhere on other threads. You are riding his nuts like a negative magic carpet!

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I thought Nitro was a dickhead at one point. Realized the guy can play. What I didn't realize was he had a fan club! I never see you guys anywhere on other threads. You are riding his nuts like a negative magic carpet!

I post regularly on other threads , but only to preach the gospel of Nitro.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ROK

You sound terrified...and you should be. Because you know where I'm heading next.

Let me ask you a very simple question: From now on, when posting your plays for Hong Kong, which odds display are you going to use: HK or USA?

Because: If you choose HK, everyone will know you're a major fraud. If you choose USA...then I want an apology or a "thank you"....

As you well know...I tried to give you a way out...a way to "save face" as it were. I knew what you were doing. What I didn't know was why. Were you making an innocent mistake? Were you just bad at simple math? Or, were you a fraud?

But now I know: You REALLY ARE bad at math...AND a major fraud... ;-)

Hey, If your so called "Dutching" methodology is any good...hell, I'll use it myself...but first ...two words...PROVE IT!!!

P.S...if the odds never change at Hong Kong...then what's the point of your "Live Bets"? Damn, will you ever tell the truth???

Yeah buddy I’m shaking in my boots. But it sure was fun exposing your nonsensical thinking process! Your problem is you only want to half-read (and even 1/2 comprehend) the written word (unless of course it’s your own).

I only posted today’s results in U.S.$, to satisfy cynics like yourself and to prove a simple point that apparently went right over your head. How I post results in the future is none of your concern, and how it may impact your brain is none of mine. (I could care less) I will continue to exclusively use the HK tote board information for my analysis for obvious reasons. If others wish to take advantage of the information I’m sharing that’s entirely up to them.

Do you really believe that I would even consider your pathetic commentary as a means “to save face”? My results stand on their own face value and certainly don’t require any interpretation. If you sincerely believe that I haven’t demonstrated a successful Dutching approach, than you my friend are not operating with a full deck.

Who said anything about the odds never changing? (Again reading only what you want?!) Unfortunately, you don’t have a clue as to how a sophisticated tote analysis even works. If you think for a minute that it’s looking at just the Win pool (the odds) you’re GREATLY mistaken! Any changes to the Live selections are based on betting patterns that are generated by ALL the available pools combined. Even the static analysis doesn’t discriminate based on odds value.

I personally think its funny how you’ve intentionally ignored the ACTUAL hit frequency of the preliminary selections themselves. Because without any consistency the results of the Dutch betting side is really a moot point.

BTW, the only deceitful arguments presented here are your own, because apparently NO rationalization will ever satisfy a Loser’s skepticism. I will no longer take the time to offer any salient explanations to your irrelevant commentary.