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11-29-2016, 07:33 PM
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#1
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Looking for a reference-type book
One of my pleasures in life is coming up with spot plays. I find myself constantly needing information for these spot plays, such as:
-what percent does a horse finish ITM --one of last two races- before winning?
-how often do horses competing for a larger purse than last out win?
-horses that showed speed in a sprint win going long next?
-Md wire winners--how often do they win 1st out against winners?
You get the idea....anyone know of such a book? Thanks for any help-NCG
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11-30-2016, 05:33 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
One of my pleasures in life is coming up with spot plays. I find myself constantly needing information for these spot plays, such as:
-what percent does a horse finish ITM --one of last two races- before winning?
-how often do horses competing for a larger purse than last out win?
-horses that showed speed in a sprint win going long next?
-Md wire winners--how often do they win 1st out against winners?
You get the idea....anyone know of such a book? Thanks for any help-NCG
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Here you go:
https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Races...william+quirin
__________________
Live to play another day.
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11-30-2016, 06:18 PM
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#3
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
One of my pleasures in life is coming up with spot plays. I find myself constantly needing information for these spot plays, such as:
-what percent does a horse finish ITM --one of last two races- before winning?
-how often do horses competing for a larger purse than last out win?
-horses that showed speed in a sprint win going long next?
-Md wire winners--how often do they win 1st out against winners?
You get the idea....anyone know of such a book? Thanks for any help-NCG
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Book??? You must be kidding!
This kind of information should be easy to extract from your custom database which I assume your already have...
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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11-30-2016, 06:48 PM
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#4
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
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Good lookin out, thask $19.99 used 
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11-30-2016, 06:51 PM
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#5
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Book??? You must be kidding!
This kind of information should be easy to extract from your custom database which I assume your already have...
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custom database? Oh..sure! This is a Christmas gift for a friend 
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11-30-2016, 06:58 PM
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#6
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
custom database? Oh..sure! This is a Christmas gift for a friend
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OK then, I can easily run these queries for you tonight and let everyone know the results. The idea of an antiquated and "static" book is not a good one when we are talking about this kind of volatile data.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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12-01-2016, 12:43 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
OK then, I can easily run these queries for you tonight and let everyone know the results. The idea of an antiquated and "static" book is not a good one when we are talking about this kind of volatile data.
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Well point my antiquated butt in the right directions and give me some books to read on computers and programming for winter projects. I am simply glad I can do some things on Excel to do some of my own research and some of the basic handicapping work that saves me hundreds of hours a year. But I need a lot more of that. Nothing automated and I can't follow half the conversations around here on the subject. So fire away Delta!
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12-01-2016, 12:58 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
One of my pleasures in life is coming up with spot plays. I find myself constantly needing information for these spot plays, such as:
-what percent does a horse finish ITM --one of last two races- before winning?
-how often do horses competing for a larger purse than last out win?
-horses that showed speed in a sprint win going long next?
-Md wire winners--how often do they win 1st out against winners?
You get the idea....anyone know of such a book? Thanks for any help-NCG
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If I am not mistaken, I think that Dave Schwartz, awhile back, had published something along those lines....
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"Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV)
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12-01-2016, 03:21 AM
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#9
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DJ M.Walk
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Compton, CA!
Posts: 2,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
One of my pleasures in life is coming up with spot plays. I find myself constantly needing information for these spot plays, such as:
-what percent does a horse finish ITM --one of last two races- before winning?
-how often do horses competing for a larger purse than last out win?
-horses that showed speed in a sprint win going long next?
-Md wire winners--how often do they win 1st out against winners?
You get the idea....anyone know of such a book? Thanks for any help-NCG
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You would be far better off getting Dave's book then the Quirin book.
http://store.pacemakestherace.com/pe...probabilities/
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12-01-2016, 11:48 AM
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#10
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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what percent does a horse finish ITM --one of last two races- before winning?
For the latest 51,887 races ( October 10 2015 to October 23 2016) I have the following data:
51,887 winners
28,551 (55%) of them finished in the money in at least one of their two previous races)
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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12-01-2016, 12:00 PM
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#11
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Well point my antiquated butt in the right directions and give me some books to read on computers and programming for winter projects. I am simply glad I can do some things on Excel to do some of my own research and some of the basic handicapping work that saves me hundreds of hours a year. But I need a lot more of that. Nothing automated and I can't follow half the conversations around here on the subject. So fire away Delta!
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Some very good starting points are the following:
Structure and interpretation of Computer Programs
Completing this book will put you ahead of the curve from the majority of intermediate programmers:
http://web.mit.edu/alexmv/6.037/sicp.pdf
You can also watch the full series of the MIT lectures based on this text here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Op3...8841CABEA24090
Here you can download an IDE for Scheme (which is used in this book)
https://racket-lang.org/
Python
https://www.amazon.com/Learning-Pyth...earning+python
Algorithms
https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-4t...rds=algorithms
Also check your PM
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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12-01-2016, 01:42 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
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Nice! I needed that. Thank you Delta.
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12-01-2016, 01:46 PM
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#13
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Nice! I needed that. Thank you Delta.
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Good luck with your studies!
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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12-01-2016, 02:56 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Western NY
Posts: 5,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
what percent does a horse finish ITM --one of last two races- before winning?
For the latest 51,887 races ( October 10 2015 to October 23 2016) I have the following data:
51,887 winners
28,551 (55%) of them finished in the money in at least one of their two previous races)
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Just as important, what % of starters finished in the money in at least one of their two previous races.
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12-01-2016, 03:01 PM
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#15
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by xtb
Just as important, what % of starters finished in the money in at least one of their two previous races.
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winners: 51887
in the money two before: 28551
ALL STARTERS
in_the_money_two_before_all: 188,362
not_in_the_money_two_before_all: 217,105
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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