The $12M Pegasus World Cup Thread

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I find your angle to be more likely and like it

If I own Arrogate, I make them come to me and say

Well, Chrome is in. Thus, every other older horse or possible entrant has been whooped by him, or whooped by the horses he has whooped.

If you don't have Arrogate, you are running for 3rd at best unless CC or Arrogate don't run. Which very likely won't happen with $12M on the line. We may as well just lock CC in the gate right now.

Soooo..., what are you gonna do? Bid for Arrogate, or take your chances on some other horse to get 3rd so you can break even at best?

To me, this is the whole part that made it silly from the beginning. Even in January when we could all see a weak older male division in the fold. And that weak older division got even weaker as time grew on.

I mean seriously. Who you want to invest $750K upon to beat Chrome and Arrogate right now? (You get $250K back for running in the race).

[CosmicWon]

This was always the fatal flaw in the race at its given $12,000,000 price point requiring all the participants to contribute equally: the incentive to NOT run was and remains greater than the rewards TO run.

How Team Stronach didn't acknowledge that fundamental issue from the beginning makes me incredulous--either they didn't think things through like for all of 17min, or from the perspective of a stall-owner, or utilized any forecasting models as simple as Excel, or even planning for instances where a Rick's Natural Star or Mattress Mack could spend $1,000,000 on a stall just to exploit the situation and run some donkey for the marketing exposure.

Furthermore, instead of getting in on TV revenue, in 2017 they're actually playing NBCSN copious $$$ to show the race so every one with a stall is starting even further away from recouping their investment.

In 2018, Strinach should absolutely front at least 50% of the purse himself while likewise considering a more appropriate purse level. It's a lot easier to face Arrogate and Chrome when you paid $300,000 for a stall in an $7,500,000 race than the current value proposition.


Heck if I was an owner with a stall and money to burn, I'd consider colluding with my pals to pay Arrogate to NOT run and hence allow more opps for our less outstanding horses to hit the board. It's not like Aarogate's Daddy, the Saudi Prince, would care--they don't even want to run now as it is.

[Redboard]

The only thing that could save the race is if BOTH Chrome and Arrogate didn't run. It would open it up to the F&M's and it would become a (somewhat) interesting betting opportunity.

But I can't see that happening. No way Chrome is going to pass up that payday. Arrogate might prefer to wait for the DWC.

[luisbe]

Is a match race possible?
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ace-in-pegasus

[ribjig]

Common sense says ALL 12 PP will fill.
a. $1M x 12 investors is CHUMP CHANGE to each of them
b. they do no worse than lose $750K according to
"...the winner would get $7 million, with $1.75 million for second, $1 million for third, and $250,000 for the fourth- through last-place finishers."
c. say CC, Arrogator, & three more top choices are committed,
why in world would 7 remaining slot owners NOT make deals with longshots???!!!
Height of Hypocrisy =
longshot bettors ridiculing PWC longshots before they are known!!!!!
longshot bettors predicting PWC has no chance of success!!!!!

This article claims many possible contenders:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/new...Look_Like_123#

Besides, in 2017 & beyond, tweaking the payout spread will GUARANTEE continuation of PWC,
e.g., $5M win, $2M place, $1.5M show, $500K fourth, $333K the rest...?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by ribjig

Common sense says ALL 12 PP will fill.
a. $1M x 12 investors is CHUMP CHANGE to each of them
b. they do no worse than lose $750K according to
"...the winner would get $7 million, with $1.75 million for second, $1 million for third, and $250,000 for the fourth- through last-place finishers."
c. say CC, Arrogator, & three more top choices are committed,
why in world would 7 remaining slot owners NOT make deals with longshots???!!!
Height of Hypocrisy =
longshot bettors ridiculing PWC longshots before they are known!!!!!
longshot bettors predicting PWC has no chance of success!!!!!

This article claims many possible contenders:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/new...Look_Like_123#

Besides, in 2017 & beyond, tweaking the payout spread will GUARANTEE continuation of PWC,
e.g., $5M win, $2M place, $1.5M show, $500K fourth, $333K the rest...?

Sounds profitable....., for a few.

[classhandicapper]

The problem this year is that Arrogate and CC seem so far above all the other horses, it changes the expected math for everyone else.

[caper]

Just curious. Since there is horse racing all around the world, could some of these investors be looking to lure a top horse from Japan or Australia, South Africa, UK or anywhere else?

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by caper

Just curious. Since there is horse racing all around the world, could some of these investors be looking to lure a top horse from Japan or Australia, South Africa, UK or anywhere else?

Sounds better than putting a 50 claimer in to just salvage the 250K.

Z

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Sounds better than putting a 50 claimer in to just salvage the 250K.

Z

With all the juice I see out there, a $50 claimer in top form, could have quite an impact if they don't police the race properly. (not like they won't police though-but you never know who will try what for such money).

[Zaf]

What are the race conditions ? You need to start to get the 250K and what else is supposed to be shared ? If I had a stall and no horses in my barn could I throw a 5K claimer in there to get my share ?

Z

[Redboard]

You could but you would probably be kissing goodbye the thought of getting your $1million back. Why not offer Hoppertunity, Dortmund, Effinex or Gun Runner half the purse. That way you might get half a million back if they came in third. If they don’t hit the board, you only get $125K back, as opposed to the $250K you'd if you run a $5k claimer. If you were stupid/rich enough to buy into this venture, you probably want to get a little excitement out of it and losing another $125K is not going to break you.

I don’t see anything happening until Arrogate announces their intentions to run in the race or not. That would make a huge difference for me, if I were the owner of one of these other candidates. Maybe I’d accept 25% of the purse, etc.

[Zaf]

This is certainly intriguing and it is going to be interesting how this finally shakes out. I hope that Arrogate goes !

Z

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by caper

Just curious. Since there is horse racing all around the world, could some of these investors be looking to lure a top horse from Japan or Australia, South Africa, UK or anywhere else?

One of my first thoughts is that the time of year of the race (28 January) is when many North American and European older horses are taking time off to recover from their more traditional spring/summer/fall campaigns. Santa Anita runs a couple of preps for the "Big Cap", but that race seems to have lost some luster with conflicting the DWC.

So who is going to "point" for the race in its inaugural year? I would not be totally shocked if some savvy group from Aussieland or Hong Kong came in and won the race with a decent horse in top form.

Also, the race seems like a great candidate for a "mandatory" event for Day 2 of the NHC...

[ribjig]

Prediction that multiple outclassed horses will run due to owners' egos:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/horse-ra...ger-1481586549
(& Baffert says Arrogate intends to run )

For example, an (outclassed?) Neolithic
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/pe...ect-neolithic/