Horses previous odds

[traynor]

There is a relatively direct relationship between odds in the last race, odds in the second race back, and probability of winning. All the normal caveats apply--class, distance, surface, blah blah. Bottom line is that a horse with low odds in its last race or two is "more likely" to win than a horse with high odds in its last race or two.

The difficulty is that the "more likely" is based--as many, many other things in racing--on averages. Those averages actually tell you zilch about what this horse is going to do in this race today. Over thousands of races impressive average values can be generated that "seem to indicate" what a horse should or should not do today. Many are complete nonsense.

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It is a wonderful testament to the competence of the betting "public" that some of our game's most famous handicapping authors now find themselves FISHING instead of betting the horses.

Blind trying to lead the blind.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

How does anyone know who's behind the money being Wagered on a horse ? Is it connection money? Rich owner ? Some trust fund baby taking a shot? Or maybe the power ball lotto winner hanging out at mountaineer laying down big money. No way to know so how can you let odds get you on or off? I have a friend who tries to handicap the handicapper wtf? Just pick the horse that fits your eye by using pp's and Dismiss the odds. Think of the times you loved a horse but no one was betting it and you said forget it only to have the 24-1 horse wire the field. Or the 4/5 that won with bombs under to pay huge on tri. I repeat don't let odds get you on or off. Let odds dictate bet amount bet or exotics.

You must be joking! Apparently you really don’t get it. But I’ll give you a hint. Why would you suppose that someone might be betting a lot of money on one or more horses in any racing event? Are they doing it to bolster their ego, or their bankroll? Yes my friend there is a motive. I’m not going to go into all the psychological details of successful betting. But believe it or not there is a small segment of the betting population that knows how to make winning plays – consistently.

The problem that you and the majority of so-called handicappers have is that you’re wearing blinkers when it comes to viewing the tote board. All you see are the ODDS! Well guess what? All that reflects is the action in single pool – the Win pool. All these discussions about ODDS are meaningless and quite honestly a moot point unless you understand the relationship between each of the mutual pools and the available exotic betting pools as step 1. Then as Step 2 you have to be able to observe the significance of various betting patterns of each entry within the context of the overall betting. And finally you have to know when during a typical betting cycle these betting patterns are the most relevant. Why, because all of this comes back to the human psyche, and the fact that we a creatures of habit. When a successful person with basic intelligence and motivation has something that works well for them, they’re going to continue to use it without alteration.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Nitro

When a successful person with basic intelligence and motivation has something that works well for them, they’re going to continue to use it without alteration.

And how long do you think "something that works well for them" lasts, before an alteration is required?.....The game is constantly changing, in a never ending state of flux.

[whisperlunch]

Nitro what the hell was that? Come again. So in each race that's 20 minutes apart you can analyze betting patterns in the win pl show pools and decipher exacta tris superfecta patterns by studying the tote pools. You guys are so full of bullshit. I swear it's the funniest thread I've read in a long time. You guys keep thinking about the odds when picking your horses. Oh and yes it's about picking winners ---best of luck

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

Nitro what the hell was that? Come again. So in each race that's 20 minutes apart you can analyze betting patterns in the win pl show pools and decipher exacta tris superfecta patterns by studying the tote pools. You guys are so full of bullshit. I swear it's the funniest thread I've read in a long time. You guys keep thinking about the odds when picking your horses. Oh and yes it's about picking winners ---best of luck

13 posts and everybody is full of bullshit and you have the answers. Seems reasonable to me.

Go get em

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

And how long do you think "something that works well for them" lasts, before an alteration is required?.....The game is constantly changing, in a never ending state of flux.

Ain't that a beautiful thing.

[whisperlunch]

Vic yes or no- do you think a horse knows he is 6/5 or 20-1? Okay that was a joke. Seriously do you think a horses odds in drf pp's or currently on the tote with 5mtp has any real influence on how the horse runs? Be serious. If you answer yes please explain. Finally what does my 12 posts have to do with anything ?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

And how long do you think "something that works well for them" lasts, before an alteration is required?.....The game is constantly changing, in a never ending state of flux.

You’ve raised a valid point though be it from a handicapper’s perspective. From that point of view not only do they encounter issues long term, but having personally experienced it myself I will say that even short term the handicapper will run into situations where they are taking gratuitous risks. In my estimation the only way around that is to become highly specialized by playing particular races (with conditions) that provide a proven record of success.

Fortunately there are other vantage points for reaping the benefits of what this game has to offer. Those who are opportunistic enough to realize what they’ve got just basically go with the flow no matter how the game might change for others. Their sources of information and evaluations during the selection process may vary from time to time, but the betting side of their game never really changes. As far as I’m concerned that’s the most significant part of this game from any standpoint.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

Nitro what the hell was that? Come again. So in each race that's 20 minutes apart you can analyze betting patterns in the win pl show pools and decipher exacta tris superfecta patterns by studying the tote pools. You guys are so full of bullshit. I swear it's the funniest thread I've read in a long time. You guys keep thinking about the odds when picking your horses. Oh and yes it's about picking winners ---best of luck

Thank you for admitting that you really don't get it!
And yes the tote analysis I use does that and more in less than 20 minutes.
Here's a recent example at Keeneland the other day:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=133907&page=1

You see your ignorance lies in the perception that it's all about the horses and not with those who care for, train, and run them in certain races with specific intentions. The next time you look at the form see if you can figure out who's trying to win the race and who's not. Or are you also among those believe that every horse entered is trying to win?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

Vic yes or no- do you think a horse knows he is 6/5 or 20-1? Okay that was a joke. Seriously do you think a horses odds in drf pp's or currently on the tote with 5mtp has any real influence on how the horse runs? Be serious. If you answer yes please explain. Finally what does my 12 posts have to do with anything ?

I've played with analyzing the tote, and I believe there is something to be gained from it...even just solely the tote action.

Somebody smarter than myself (and there are a lot of you out there), I'm sure, has taken it to levels you and I haven't even thought of and is raking in a lot of money because of it...

You need to keep an open mind...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by traynor

There is a relatively direct relationship between odds in the last race, odds in the second race back, and probability of winning. All the normal caveats apply--class, distance, surface, blah blah. Bottom line is that a horse with low odds in its last race or two is "more likely" to win than a horse with high odds in its last race or two.

The difficulty is that the "more likely" is based--as many, many other things in racing--on averages. Those averages actually tell you zilch about what this horse is going to do in this race today. Over thousands of races impressive average values can be generated that "seem to indicate" what a horse should or should not do today. Many are complete nonsense.

I consider a horse's odds in his previous race (assuming he was spotted in a similar race) as a proxy for his recent overall record.

If 2 horse look almost identical off their last race and one was 2-1 and the other 35-1, that's usually telling you that the former has a better overall record and would be more likely to win today even though they ran similar races last time.

Personally, I'd rather evaluate his entire record on my own, but I guess prior odds are a reasonable lazy man's way of doing it.

One area where prior odds can sometimes help is 2nd time starters.

[Poindexter]

I am not a database guy, but one thing I notice happen with some regularity is for a horse to run big at big odds, come back against similar, pay big odds (something like 8 or 10-1 this time while he was 20 to 40-1 the time before) again and fail to get the job done. The big effort seems to be an aberration an the public seems to know he won't duplicate the effort.

[ultracapper]

The relationship between odds and connections must be considered in any use. 5/1 on Mr. Lowwinpercentage and 5/1 on Mr. Baffert are two different things.

[CosmicWon]

Odds is what they is. If you like a horse and she's above your fair value odds perception, then bet her. If you lose, meh, you'll make it up the next time as long as you don't chase. Neve chase. That's undisciplined.

Also, never don't bet the longshot if it intrigues you. What's a few WPS on a 33-1 if you lose...guaranteed it doesn't hurt nearly as bad as seeing that same horse win and you got nada on her. #insanityinsurance

Thing about odds is it's they reflect the perceptions of other people, and I trust myself more than I trust the crowd. Bet who you like and let the rest out there fend for themselves. Most of the time they are just as clueless if not more so that you.

I do though like to look at the odds of "outsider" but competitive horses in a race. For instance, Zapperkat--while she's now declared out of Bc Juvy Fillies, I couldn't help but notice she was the favorite in the Chandelier while being 12s in her maiden win first out.

Being reminded that she was so low in the Chandelier made me really reevaluate what I was perceiving in that race. Is Noted and Quoted really that good or did she take advantage of the 2-3 horses in there being well-fancied but a bit late in fitness?

In that same vein, fwiw I think With Honors ran terrific in there considering her sire is anemic with dirt horses and she got G1P in her first dirt start after already being SW on turf. That filly has legit ability and could be 8 or 10-1 on BC Sat.