Horses previous odds

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

Vic I enjoyed your post, but I’m really surprised that a person with your background and involvement in the game chooses to make the same rhetorical errors that so many of the talking heads on horse racing broadcasts make. You know dam well that the betting population is made up of more than the general public (Outsiders)! And when the favorite losses who do suppose is making money? Yet, there’s always the possibility that on occasion a favorite is also being backed by Insider action.

I believe that the real reason a true description of the betting population is never publicized is because those using the term “betting public” want you to think that all the money going into the betting pools is from your typical $2 - $20 bettor gathering information from the PP data. I believe it’s a concerted effort to make people believe that they should have no problem competing with bettors in the same position they're in. How convenient!

[thaskalos]

The betting "public" is actually wrong 6.5 times out of 10...and their 35% winning rate shouldn't be turned into an indictment against them. No single handicapper can select 35% winners when playing every single race out there.

It is a wonderful testament to the competence of the betting "public" that some of our game's most famous handicapping authors now find themselves FISHING instead of betting the horses.

[whisperlunch]

Vic heck maybe I don't understand what our disagreement is. This topic started about odds of a horse when handicapping and what people thought. Okay. When I'm betting a race and I find the horse I think will win or run in a key spot I do not toss him based on what the tote says. I may bet more on the horse or I may bet less on the horse because of the odds and - or like you stated maybe just pass on the race. So. If it's you - and you really like the 3 but the 3is 6/5 do you pass because it's to chalky? If the 3 is 25-1 do you pass because it's too High and you wonder what's wrong? I'm curious. Not trying to sound cheesy but you have tons more experience and won big scores in tournaments. I'm just tying to pick your brain

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

My buddy ran a years worth of races thru his DB and found 95.71% of the races were won by horses 10-1 or less

The ATM survey was 9/1 odds and less, not 10/1, but the same ball park figure.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

I believe your question has to do with what a horses odds were in previous races and then came the bold portion which seems to indicate you are wondering about today's odds and morning line odds.

I will take on each separately. A horses odds in a prior races is definitely part of the handicapping process. A horse goes off at 3-1 in a 16 claimer and drops to a $10,000 claimer deserves a lot more respect than a horse that went off at 52-1 in that same 16 claimer. Obviously as a capper you are more focused on what a horse did, but the fact that he was respected rather than not respected by the betting public that day adds information to the puzzle.

Regarding Morning line, it depends on the morning line capper. As a capper you have to gauge how much respect the morning line capper for each track deserves. That being said, for the most part I am about my opinion and not overly concerned about the morning line cappers opinion.

Regarding actual odds, I think you can drive yourself crazy trying to figure out who is dead on the board. Live is a little easier. I have evolved to the point where I create my own odds line, blend it with the public odds (giving extra weight to the horses who are overbet-because the public unfortunately is not stupid) calculate a new line(spreadsheet of course) and play the horse(s) who offer value. Ideally I will have one horse who offers sufficient value and that is my play. If I have multiple contenders(more than 2) that are still value, I likely am WRONG and have a bad line. This method works for me, but warning the losing streaks can be long(been on a bad streak since Del Mar(fortunately I have hit some pick 4's and pick 5's in the meantime). Unfortunately within that envelope of value horses are horses that may not be well intentioned or have seen an abrupt negative form reversal since there last start..............But the hope is that the payout on the value horses exceeds the losses on the losers. Value horses were a winner for me last year and have been a winner for me this year. Sample size is still way too small to form any definitive conclusions, but thus far I am happy with the process. Hit rates seems to be within expectation of blended line(not my actual line).

[whisperlunch]

How does anyone know who's behind the money being Wagered on a horse ? Is it connection money? Rich owner ? Some trust fund baby taking a shot? Or maybe the power ball lotto winner hanging out at mountaineer laying down big money. No way to know so how can you let odds get you on or off? I have a friend who tries to handicap the handicapper wtf? Just pick the horse that fits your eye by using pp's and Dismiss the odds. Think of the times you loved a horse but no one was betting it and you said forget it only to have the 24-1 horse wire the field. Or the 4/5 that won with bombs under to pay huge on tri. I repeat don't let odds get you on or off. Let odds dictate bet amount bet or exotics.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

How does anyone know who's behind the money being Wagered on a horse ? Is it connection money? Rich owner ? Some trust fund baby taking a shot? Or maybe the power ball lotto winner hanging out at mountaineer laying down big money. No way to know so how can you let odds get you on or off? I have a friend who tries to handicap the handicapper wtf? Just pick the horse that fits your eye by using pp's and Dismiss the odds. Think of the times you loved a horse but no one was betting it and you said forget it only to have the 24-1 horse wire the field. Or the 4/5 that won with bombs under to pay huge on tri. I repeat don't let odds get you on or off. Let odds dictate bet amount bet or exotics.

You are right, we do not know where the money is coming from. But I think Nitro's point is that as a rule their is some pretty sharp money in the pools(whether it is barn money, clockers, whales, cappers, physicality cappers....) and his methodology for reading the tote board is able to detect a lot of this money. He seems happy with his results that this is has become his way of attacking the races. Obviously his supposed success has shaped in his mind that the way of beating the races is to focus on the sharp money. I can tell you from my results, while I focus on value, the overbet horses (mainly the lower odds ones-and believe me I would much rather tell you otherwise) are typically somewhere in the superfecta. So while you are right about the fact we do not know who is betting and why, the public money as a whole does seem to have much predictive value.

Lets pretend that you really like a horse but after evaluating the competition you think he has about a 33% chance of winning. What rational reason would you have for betting the horse at 4/5. If he is 4/5, there is no question that you underestimated his chances of winning at 33%. Worse case scenario is he would have a 40 to 45% chance of winning. Lets be truly optimistic and say he has a 50% chance of winning. 50% chance of winning at a $3.60 payoff means that for every $2.00 you bet you get back $1.80 or you lose 10% on the dollar. That is being optimistic and assuming the horse has a 50% chance of winning when you gave him a 33% chance of winning. There is nothing rational about betting the horse at 4/5.

Now your argument about keying him in a pick 4 or pick 5 is not an empty one. Singles are valuable in these bets. But then again, would you not be more comfortable singling a horse you make 6/5 at 4/5 rather than a horse you make 2-1 at 4/5. The horse may very well win, but, I believe in the long run you will do much better singling horses much closer to your projected line(opinion). Any horse can lose. We see it almost every day. In other words there may be a better single later in the sequence or the next day ......
On the other hand, maybe they are giving out a $200,000 carryover, you need a single and this is the best choice. In this case I might bite, but in most instances there are much better wagers and it is better to sit it out or look elsewhere for value using this horse over the value horse in the exotics for protection only.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

This statement couldn't possibly be more incorrect.

The ONLY thing that matters on a horse is the price.

Take any race any day. Pick any horse that has a reasonable chance at finishing 1st.

If he's 6/5 I'll give you a 15 minute speech as to why he's the worst bet in the history of horse racing.

If he's 6-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's probably about proper at that price.

If he's 20-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's the single greatest bet in the history of pari-mutual wagering.

Everything is exactly the same in all three scenarios.

Same: Track, PP's, jockey, trainer, race shape, distance, post and on and on.

What's changed? One thing and one thing ONLY. His price. Period.

This game has NOTHING to do with picking winners or cashing bets. This game is about making money.

And the only way to do that is to consistently over and over and over again make the correct bet.

If you're doing that individual race results actually become irrelevant. And I'm not saying meaningless. I'm saying bad rides, good rides, good luck or bad luck, DQ's or As is will become a wash over the course of time.

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

VJ, I'm saving this post to my files to read as a good reminder. It's great IMHO. I hate to admit, that I've done just the opposite at times. Picked the best horse, and the public's poor opinion of him caused me to reduce my bet, but never get off. And the opposite, thought I picked a good horse, and he's bet down, and the public's opinion agreeing with me gave me extra confidence. Thanks Whosonfirst

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

This statement couldn't possibly be more incorrect.

The ONLY thing that matters on a horse is the price.

Take any race any day. Pick any horse that has a reasonable chance at finishing 1st.

If he's 6/5 I'll give you a 15 minute speech as to why he's the worst bet in the history of horse racing.

If he's 6-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's probably about proper at that price.

If he's 20-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's the single greatest bet in the history of pari-mutual wagering.

Everything is exactly the same in all three scenarios.

Same: Track, PP's, jockey, trainer, race shape, distance, post and on and on.

What's changed? One thing and one thing ONLY. His price. Period.

This game has NOTHING to do with picking winners or cashing bets. This game is about making money.

And the only way to do that is to consistently over and over and over again make the correct bet.

If you're doing that individual race results actually become irrelevant. And I'm not saying meaningless. I'm saying bad rides, good rides, good luck or bad luck, DQ's or As is will become a wash over the course of time.

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

Many good points in your posting. Playing the game for over 40 years I believe what separates the good players from the losers is the ability to handle the inevitable losing runs (and dreaded extended runs) with the same businesslike attitude simply playing your game when your recordkeeping shows the losing run is all a part of your past betting history.

Now in reference to the 9/1 maximum for percentage betting a good player like you stated bets more when he perceives a greater advantage, that's the key in my opinion. The others lower their bet amount when the odds are higher.

[Dave Schwartz]

Vic,

Post #12...

That was one AWESOME post!

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

Vic heck maybe I don't understand what our disagreement is. This topic started about odds of a horse when handicapping and what people thought. Okay. When I'm betting a race and I find the horse I think will win or run in a key spot I do not toss him based on what the tote says. I may bet more on the horse or I may bet less on the horse because of the odds and - or like you stated maybe just pass on the race. So. If it's you - and you really like the 3 but the 3is 6/5 do you pass because it's to chalky? If the 3 is 25-1 do you pass because it's too High and you wonder what's wrong? I'm curious. Not trying to sound cheesy but you have tons more experience and won big scores in tournaments. I'm just tying to pick your brain

I pass when he's 6/5 and IMO opinion too chalky. Unless on the very rare occasion I think 6/5 is actually an overlay.

When he's 25-1 I know this is a time when I can make a score which will carry me through many races when the horse I like doesn't run a lick.

Thask's point about assuming it's a forgone conclusion the horse we like will always win. Therefore making the only decision being price worthiness. Many horses we like will not win. I make my plays in such a manner that I don't have to be right very often.

Again. It's not picking the winner or even showing your buddies you cashed again. It's about trying to show a profit over an extended period of time. Days, months, years.

Nothing fancy, nothing glamourous, simply a lot of very hard work. Discipline, patience and expertise will always carry the day over those without the same ethic. Eventually you'll wear them and the takeout down and grind out a few bucks. Or not.

[whisperlunch]

Thanks for reply Vic. Hey Dave not sure what your post means please clarify

[Maximillion]

If a horse went off at huge odds in its last race...Id be more inclined to be very forgiving or maybe skip it altogether(if it was bad) when trying to evaluate him.

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

....

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

Hey VJ

Great post and I have to say that the point you make here:
'I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money. '

Takes quite a bit of self control and it is extremely difficult sometimes to not give in to the temptation of following a heavy favorite.

As a case in point I'm just looking at a very small sample of the Morning Line Favorites at Belmont that start with 1 (i.e. 1-1, 1-2, ,,, 1-9 etc.) you would think that although this is the odds makers guess the horse would be the 'logical' choice to win the race.

It's a good guess that these end up being the actual favorite in the race and it's extremely difficult to layoff them especially if you see that they happen to be winning way more than 30% for a short period of time as can be seen here:




The Morning Line Favorites starting with 1 was at one point winning at a rate of 87% from June 27th 2015 to May 21st 2016 at Belmont.

The casual fan might look at the last two of these that won on the same day on May 21st 2016 and decide that the next time it happens to bet heavily on these type of favorites and they become very tempting.


However, as can be seen here:



The heavy odds on favorites took quite a beating from June 12th 2016 to July 9th 2016 at Belmont. The overwhelming "logical" choices went 0 for 5 with one completely off the board.

I'm sure the casual fan as well as many others got burned during the days leading up to the July 4th weekend and even afterwards if they thought they were going to make some 'easy' money.

It is a discipline that is not easy to maintain

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I pass when he's 6/5 and IMO opinion too chalky. Unless on the very rare occasion I think 6/5 is actually an overlay.

When he's 25-1 I know this is a time when I can make a score which will carry me through many races when the horse I like doesn't run a lick.

Thask's point about assuming it's a forgone conclusion the horse we like will always win. Therefore making the only decision being price worthiness. Many horses we like will not win. I make my plays in such a manner that I don't have to be right very often.

Again. It's not picking the winner or even showing your buddies you cashed again. It's about trying to show a profit over an extended period of time. Days, months, years.

Nothing fancy, nothing glamourous, simply a lot of very hard work. Discipline, patience and expertise will always carry the day over those without the same ethic. Eventually you'll wear them and the takeout down and grind out a few bucks. Or not.

Most players I know are lazy, that's why I avoid the crap out of everyone when I'm at the track.

You're words are very true. Hard work, patience, discipline are vital. Last comes some talent.

Thankfully, 99.999% of the people I see at racetracks don't have ALL of the above. How do I know, I simply listen to their ill formed thoughts.