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Old 10-10-2016, 05:23 PM   #16
RunDustyRun
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Like the ...long layoff but had stellar running lines...ggod works and the connections and jock should ensure a good price
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Old 10-10-2016, 05:41 PM   #17
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Moe Candy picks today to make his point at the 3/16ths pole.

Figures

Last edited by ultracapper; 10-10-2016 at 05:42 PM.
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Old 10-11-2016, 12:44 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Moe Candy picks today to make his point at the 3/16ths pole.

Figures
Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping
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Old 10-11-2016, 02:09 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping
Damn right, I follow SoCal racing and this was a nice thread UC had going for a while. How about part deux?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ighlight=socal
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Old 10-11-2016, 06:01 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping
I have to be honest with you Greg, I'm never going to be a high volume player, but watching your thread, I can definitely see the fun factor in your program. And if the user works things out right, can see them cashing many nice tickets. Spreading around like that just isn't my style though.

We'll throw a couple more out next week. It's a great exercise for me.
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Old 10-11-2016, 06:27 PM   #21
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Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping
Ditto! Love the thought process !
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Old 10-20-2016, 04:15 PM   #22
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I'm just going to throw this one out there because I found it kind of interesting, even though it's only a 5 horse field.

10-20 2nd @ SA

There's only 1 reason a low percentage barn gives a last-out maiden breaker an 8 month vacation. Let's see if she retained her early speed.

She'll plug along, but I don't think this setup is right for her. She really needs to be more forward against these than what I project. However, legitimate back class can equal a couple extra steps early if a horse has any kind of pop. In this case, I don't believe she has the natural early speed to take advantage of her class advantage.

What is wrong with jockey Gonzalez? The kid has made a handful of money the past 12-18 months. Hopefully it hasn't effected him negatively. Worried because he is riding very poor right now. He hasn't looked good.

The connections (D'Amato had her at LosAl, put a 7lb bug that's not winning any riding titles soon up, owners offered her for 40 cents on the $ they paid for her), the public (8/1), and the horsemen (no claim ticket on a D'Amato offered up first out for 40 cents on the $) were all surprised. Now, the connections (D'Amato moves her to SA, the bug handled her nearly flawless, owners protect her), the public (2/5 ML) and the horsemen (protected this time) are all watching. She's trained well for this, but D'Amato is a good horseman that isn't often fooled. These experienced, back class fillies may expose whatever made everybody hesitant first out.

This has always been a fast filly, but refused to ever settle down and relax early for Warren/Black. She looked like a new filly first out for Palma, and showed the speed is there in the final 1/16 of her last. She's trained well, and her races under Warren/Black indicate Palma hasn't hit the bottom with her. There's more under the hood. I have little doubt of that.

As the Estate of Bud Johnston gets disbursed, we've been seeing all sorts of interesting things with these horses. He always bred half way decent animals. This filly is a Cyclotron, a horse that has sired some very fast horses over the years.

This race should be pretty quick around the far turn, and that's when she is going to really be challenged. Hard to imagine she'll be able to get to the 3/16 pole in the necessary position she needs to win, and still have enough punch to get it done.

Selection here is Princess Ashlyn, knowing full well that if G Q Covergirl is the filly she posed as at DelMar, she'll be very difficult to beat.
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Old 10-20-2016, 04:39 PM   #23
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She ran the exact same race. She's able to ease into stride very quickly after leaving the gate.

Very nice.
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Old 10-23-2016, 04:55 PM   #24
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10-23 SA 4th

Lugging in badly in his last, and follow that up with a choppy work out schedule. He always finishes but he very well may not be at his best right now.

He isn't ready to pull this kind of race down yet.

Putting blinkers on to help with the hanging. Prat to Bejarano a wash. He'll have some work to do turning for home.

Perfect jockey change if you're thinking of trying to steal this race.

Habitual hanger. He just flattens out every time.

Another flat finisher

I'll guess that Pedroza is hired to do what he does, be aggressive. He'll need to slow it way, way down, and still won't be able to out run the stalkers.

Looks to still be a work in progress

Needed a trip to NoCal for one of their stroll in the park turf routes to show his best. That won't translate here.

Paula, Paula, Paula. Huhhhhhhhh........



Gary Broad will bet it, but hoping he doesn't just crush the price. Will be prominent up front through out and should be able to dictate things from the 1/2 mile pole on.
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Old 10-23-2016, 05:19 PM   #25
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Better to be lucky than good.

Nailed it

Couldn't have been more wrong

Nailed it

I'm happy TBaze is an experienced journeyman jock. Why he wasn't 3 lengths closer the first 1/2 mile I don't know, but I sure wanted him there. Good job TBaze.

I don't know what the solution for this horse is, but he gets where he has to be at the 1/4 pole, and then, HANG. He should have won this race. Nailed it.

Nailed it (Edit) Didn't nail it. We may never know. Left in the gate.

Nailed it

Nailed it

Nailed it

Nailed it

Quite a run by RMandella/Prat. I've never really noticed RMandella with the quick turn around sprint/route play. He usually gives his FTS a longer time before their second race. He must have loved that work out 10/19. Prat from the to the wasn't much of a hint because his presence in SoCal is due to RMandella. He definitely got the kid started here.

Last edited by ultracapper; 10-23-2016 at 05:21 PM.
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Old 10-23-2016, 11:21 PM   #26
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As always UC -- excellent work
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Old 10-30-2016, 05:20 PM   #27
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A little short on time, so I have to take a short cut on presentation.

6th @ SA

Westwood's Wizard - His dirt race of 23Jul16 was his best race. He was stretched out on the turf, where he ran into front runners that were able to run off. Exhale blew up in the 2Oct16 race. He should run the best race of his life today.

Uninvited - He always leaves himself work to do in the lane and is vulnerable to a forward runner that fires at the head of the stretch. He'll pick up major pieces again today.

and . Interesting wild cards in this race. One, or both, very well could make some serious noise on the stretch out, but I think the finish line will be just a little too far away for them today. They both look to be a race away.
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Old 10-30-2016, 06:59 PM   #28
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Tough game. You don't have to miss by much to be totally wrong.
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Old 11-11-2016, 07:14 PM   #29
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9th @ Del Mar

Scratch

You could say she has back class, but I don't know about that. She's been running against better, but, particularly on dirt, not that well. I don't think they're sure what they have, and neither am I. Kind of a wild card.

PHarrington/Almanza is your 3/2 favorite in a 10 horse field at Santa Anita. How do you think that will work out? Exactly as it did 16Oct16. I nearly got seriously paid in that race with Truly Ponti at about 25/1. 2yo form has fooled many a handicapper over the years, and will continue to until the last strip mall is built where they used to run the ponies.

This filly's form was deteriorating in NoCal before Greenman got her on the cheap. He found some life left in her for a couple races, but she's heading south again.

When a trainer like REllis gives up on them like he gave up on her, you know things aren't right. She tries, but she's not that fast. At this level, effort can get you a long way, but the winner's circle might be elusive here. Wouldn't be surprised to see her give a good account of herself as she will at least be forward.

She should ensure an honest pace, but won't clear, and will be out-finished.

Scratch

Pender claims her 26Aug16, puts 3 good works in to her, then.......oops, did something happen? We wait 12 days for another work, race very uninspiring a week later, then get 1 work 9 days ago. These are the ones I can't bet on, but know that if I'm missing something, can beat me. Her win 2 back was very professional, as was the runner-up effort before that. The activity schedule since Sep25 and the fact she had fronts on in her first start for Pender makes me step away, and even look to beat her. Very well may be the post time favorite.

She will be forward. She has beat better. She has guts on the front end, and she has worked like a champ since the first of October. I look for her to be that last man standing at the 1/16th pole in a race where many will like to be forward, but only the most committed will get the honor. She looks ready to roll, and if right, this field has nothing that should scare her.

I have no hesitancy betting Matt Chew when he has the right animal. This mare will be hard pressed to beat any field off a 7 month layoff.

Hollendorfer brought her to Turf Paradise. He was trying anything to get something out of her. Best he could do was sell her to Paul Aguirre. Aguirre/Puglisi have smacked 'cappers upside the head in the past. If they do this time, I'll take my lumps.

OK. Here's a nasty little speedster. She had to drop to the basement to get it done. She had to go to Los Al to get it done. She was swimming down the stretch like a drunken sailor in 6 foot swales to get it done. But she's got some wheels. Fortunately, all the speeds should be kept honest in here, and getting away at the 3/8ths pole, which would give this filly her best chance, is unlikely. There are going to be a lot of fillies and mares running backwards in the stretch before this race is over.

And the more that are running backwards, the better for this one. She would like to be forward but doesn't have the speed to do it in here, but she will pick up some pieces. It's doubtful the race will fall apart enough for her to pick them all up however.

This 5yo mare is a picture of what a drag horse ownership can be. She actually could have been a very useful race horse if she could have stayed on the track. She came back very nice after her year off, but she had to sit out for another 9 months, and came back not looking as quick as she once was. The jock worked her pretty hard to hold the position she had in her last. She's worked well, they took the fronts off for her last one, but I think it's all an effort to sell her. She didn't look good in her last race. Kind of sad for me, as I had her when the placed 8Jan16 at about 8/1 and she gave me quite a thrill.

The pick is . I always like layoff horses with proven back class at this level, and I found one I can get on in here. Her works, running style, and proven ability are the things I look for in a layoff runner at this level.
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Old 11-11-2016, 11:00 PM   #30
ReplayRandall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
9th @ Del Mar
The pick is . I always like layoff horses with proven back class at this level, and I found one I can get on in here. Her works, running style, and proven ability are the things I look for in a layoff runner at this level.
Nice write-up, nice call:

Herunbridledpower [8-1] 1st - 12.80 5.80 5.00
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