9th @ Del Mar
Scratch
You could say she has back class, but I don't know about that. She's been running against better, but, particularly on dirt, not that well. I don't think they're sure what they have, and neither am I. Kind of a wild card.
PHarrington/Almanza is your 3/2 favorite in a 10 horse field at Santa Anita. How do you think that will work out? Exactly as it did 16Oct16. I nearly got seriously paid in that race with Truly Ponti at about 25/1. 2yo form has fooled many a handicapper over the years, and will continue to until the last strip mall is built where they used to run the ponies.
This filly's form was deteriorating in NoCal before Greenman got her on the cheap. He found some life left in her for a couple races, but she's heading south again.
When a trainer like REllis gives up on them like he gave up on her, you know things aren't right. She tries, but she's not that fast. At this level, effort can get you a long way, but the winner's circle might be elusive here. Wouldn't be surprised to see her give a good account of herself as she will at least be forward.
She should ensure an honest pace, but won't clear, and will be out-finished.
Scratch
Pender claims her 26Aug16, puts 3 good works in to her, then.......oops, did something happen? We wait 12 days for another work, race very uninspiring a week later, then get 1 work 9 days ago. These are the ones I can't bet on, but know that if I'm missing something, can beat me. Her win 2 back was very professional, as was the runner-up effort before that. The activity schedule since Sep25 and the fact she had fronts on in her first start for Pender makes me step away, and even look to beat her. Very well may be the post time favorite.
She will be forward. She has beat better. She has guts on the front end, and she has worked like a champ since the first of October. I look for her to be that last man standing at the 1/16th pole in a race where many will like to be forward, but only the most committed will get the honor. She looks ready to roll, and if right, this field has nothing that should scare her.
I have no hesitancy betting Matt Chew when he has the right animal. This mare will be hard pressed to beat any field off a 7 month layoff.
Hollendorfer brought her to Turf Paradise. He was trying anything to get something out of her. Best he could do was sell her to Paul Aguirre. Aguirre/Puglisi have smacked 'cappers upside the head in the past. If they do this time, I'll take my lumps.
OK. Here's a nasty little speedster. She had to drop to the basement to get it done. She had to go to Los Al to get it done. She was swimming down the stretch like a drunken sailor in 6 foot swales to get it done. But she's got some wheels. Fortunately, all the speeds should be kept honest in here, and getting away at the 3/8ths pole, which would give this filly her best chance, is unlikely. There are going to be a lot of fillies and mares running backwards in the stretch before this race is over.
And the more that are running backwards, the better for this one. She would like to be forward but doesn't have the speed to do it in here, but she will pick up some pieces. It's doubtful the race will fall apart enough for her to pick them all up however.
This 5yo mare is a picture of what a drag horse ownership can be. She actually could have been a very useful race horse if she could have stayed on the track. She came back very nice after her year off, but she had to sit out for another 9 months, and came back not looking as quick as she once was. The jock worked her pretty hard to hold the position she had in her last. She's worked well, they took the fronts off for her last one, but I think it's all an effort to sell her. She didn't look good in her last race. Kind of sad for me, as I had her when the placed 8Jan16 at about 8/1 and she gave me quite a thrill.
The pick is
. I always like layoff horses with proven back class at this level, and I found one I can get on in here. Her works, running style, and proven ability are the things I look for in a layoff runner at this level.