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Old 10-07-2016, 03:19 PM   #1
ultracapper
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I'll throw a race out there today

1st @ SA

Connections may be disappointed to get this one back. A little cat and mouse at the claim box? Trying to recoup whatever they can from an unfortunate claim.

Becoming a home run or nothing type. Needs relaxed first 1/2 mile

Persistent forward running grinder fits this field. Clean trip may be all that's needed.

Best results have been when horse has been raced into shape. Unless new trainer has some idea the previous one didn't, this one is probably a race or two short after the 7 week layoff

If this one could get the lead early he could prove to be real dangerous in this field, however he has little to no gate pop, and the connections have never shown an inclination to see what he could do when winging it.

8 month layoff cost this horse a couple steps that can't realistically be expected to ever be reclaimed. But this is a good stop on his way down and out. He may be challenged if he has to dig in late. It might not be there anymore.

Very one paced racer needs a backing up field for best.




is the pick
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Old 10-07-2016, 04:08 PM   #2
RedMeansGo
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Nice one UC.
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Old 10-07-2016, 06:41 PM   #3
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Hey...way to come off the bench and nail one!
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Old 10-07-2016, 07:52 PM   #4
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Good analysis. A lot of people post picks here with no commentary.
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Old 10-07-2016, 09:54 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
The worst of it all is he never tells you when he's betting or how he's betting it. He never says, "Hey the board is telling me that this is a prime bet and I'm climbing all over it". All we hear is, "If YOU would have done this" with his picks, "YOU'D have this". It's never, "I did this with my picks, and I have this". It's all what if's and coulda's and how you should follow his picks.

I'll be the first to admit that I don't know all the ins and outs of what he's doing and therefore can't tell you how effective it is. But he has no proof of how effective it is either because he never posts any plays, just selections. Two very different things. He reminds us time and again on days his SELECTIONS did well, but never tells us when his PLAYS were successful, nor discusses any of the days when race after race we see "no clue about the long shot placer". And if you pay attention with just one sleepy eye as I do, you know you see plenty of those. He's just as big a BSer as those he accuses of same. He doesn't post PLAYS because what he's doing doesn't seem to give him a real clue when to PLAY.

Selections are a dime a dozen around here.
So hot shot what grand PLAY you make on your fantastic “selection” (above)? Gee wiz for some reason I don't see your bet!

Pal in case you don’t know it yet, you can’t make any type of play until you have made your Selection(s). I guess you also missed the title of this forum: the Selection forum.

Next you’ll be asking for someone to make your bets for you too.

I guess you’ve also missed the comment I frequently make before I start posting picks: (I mean how many times do I have to repeat this message?)
Quote:
Just so that there’s misunderstanding, I post my best selections for each race.
I’m not posting bets!
My top 2 selections are my Keys. They can be played individually or Dutched if the value is there. I will also use them as Keys in Exactas, Tri’s and Supers. Keying entries in exotics means that they have to at least be in the money with the other picks. I may not even be playing a race if it doesn’t offer any value.
Yes, contrary to the trend around here I’ll post my results too; Win or Lose
I know it might be difficult for some to understand, but the winning results I post are the potential returns for those types of bets had they been made.
I don’t make every bet and I certainly don’t play every race.
I’m posting to share information. I certainly don’t have to prove anything to you or anyone else around here. My selections (and their results) speak for themselves.

If you would like me to teach you how play I’ll be glad to help you out, but it’ll cost you - BIG time.

BTW you've apparently also missed ALL of my last (5) Hong Kong threads where I did in fact inform anyone who might be interested on how to PLAY my Top 3 PICKS by Dutching them.
So please get off you high green horsey and learn how to play valid selections properly.

Last edited by Nitro; 10-07-2016 at 09:55 PM.
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Old 10-07-2016, 10:19 PM   #6
Alwaysonpoint36
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Razor sharp ultracapper
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Old 10-07-2016, 11:54 PM   #7
Nitro
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Originally Posted by Alwaysonpoint36
Razor sharp ultracapper
Yep! About as sharp as you are buddy!

How can you possibly respond to the intelligence of the Peanut Gallery?
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Old 10-08-2016, 01:10 AM   #8
Alwaysonpoint36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Yep! About as sharp as you are buddy!

How can you possibly respond to the intelligence of the Peanut Gallery?
You're right man. You're far too easy to draw out, so relax and keep doing whatever it is you do. I am not the one, you understand? It's been a rough day at work and you're looking like an easy target.
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Last edited by Alwaysonpoint36; 10-08-2016 at 01:24 AM.
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Old 10-08-2016, 01:21 AM   #9
Nitro
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Originally Posted by Alwaysonpoint36
You're right man. You're far too easy to draw out, so relax and keep doing whatever it is you do.
So I guess it was Ultracapper's sharpness that drew you out.
I'll have keep my eye open for these witty posts from now on. I wouldn't want to miss anything that's important for improving my game.
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Old 10-08-2016, 10:24 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
So I guess it was Ultracapper's sharpness that drew you out.
I'll have keep my eye open for these witty posts from now on. I wouldn't want to miss anything that's important for improving my game.
/

6 Horse field.



Results 6 1 5 No clues on winning runner. (except for his last 2 replays which clearly pointed out the runner's troubled trips)

Last edited by EMD4ME; 10-08-2016 at 10:25 AM.
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Old 10-08-2016, 12:11 PM   #11
NorCalGreg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
/

6 Horse field.



Results 6 1 5 No clues on winning runner. (except for his last 2 replays which clearly pointed out the runner's troubled trips)
That's comedy gold right there...take the ---

the wins....and say "no clue on the winner"

I guess not!

Nitro, I've been there, brother
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Old 10-08-2016, 02:00 PM   #12
ultracapper
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OMG!!!

This is the best thread I've ever started. I want to say THANKS to ALL the participants. You each made the perfect posts. (Somebody has to bring the arse to the table that's gonna get kicked. Thank you Nitro)

That was a solid kick EMD4Me.
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Old 10-10-2016, 03:40 PM   #13
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I'll throw another one out there.

Columbus Day 5th @ SA

You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this colt, but he was still on a 3f work schedule in mid-August. Missing goals in horse racing isn't the best scenario. If they could have gone earlier, they would have. Another thing you have to hate in horse racing is disappointed connections.

You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this $335K yearling purchase, and he was actually entered at Del Mar, in July 2015, but scratched out of that baby race that was eventually won by the 2016 Preakness champion (Who retired today, if you hadn't seen that yet). Missing goals in horse racing.....................

You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this $370K yearling purchase, and this one actually looks like he may have been ready, but the need for gate works 8/10 and 8/26 make you wonder. The long works may indicate that routes are more the target with this one.

You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this once promising runner, as they took advantage of both the 2014 Del Mar meets before shelving him for 23 months. The steady work schedule during the Del Mar meet has been replaced by a more maintenance work schedule that may mean they missed their goal. Missing goals in horse racing..........

If gelding this one can turn it entirely around, geld them all. Talamo took what appears to be the "other" Ellis runner over Sadler's colt in the 6 hole. That's food for thought.

This colt is just unable to assert himself at the top of the stretch, and until he does, he is going to be susceptible in the stretch. His paper form is a dangerous tease, and Talamo jumps. Obviously not impossible, but he's got questions.

Off 14 months and comes back running exactly as he did before. Flat in the stretch.

Uhmmm...... (0-19 MSW, 0-14 M2ndStart). Paula, there are reasons for these numbers. Your horse doesn't fit here.

I have less backstretch experience, knowledge, or connections than anybody on this board, but if there is a way to tell that a horse is busting down the stall just by looking at the form, this might be a prime example. 3 weeks ago he posts a "best of everybody on the grounds" 5f bullet work out of the gate. Follows that up with an under the radar work a week ago to get tight for this. Interesting breeding, a trainer that will sneak one in, and a price that should be acceptable. There could be worse bets than this. Watch the tote board and the post parade.

Uhmmm....... (0-19 MSW, 0-11 FTS). Paula, there are reasons for ................



Make this one a careful action pick.

Last edited by ultracapper; 10-10-2016 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 10-10-2016, 03:59 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Make this one a careful action pick.
Agreed.....This is the play, but no lower than 9-2.
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Old 10-10-2016, 04:17 PM   #15
ultracapper
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With a Mandella, Sadler and 2 Ellis's, I'm hoping like 8/1 or even 10/1 when the betting closes.
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