G2 Pennsylvania Derby

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Hapman

Yes. I know it's crazy. I think I tried to sign up in June. I enjoy reading and lurk and recently noticed it let me reply last week. 3 months.

Apparently no one checks the e-mail for new account approvals much?

Ha.

Welcome aboard Hapman.

[reckless]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.

[Track Phantom]

My prediction:

(1ST) 7 GUN RUNNER (6-1)
Perfect running style for this, never run a bad race on a fast track. Big acceleration on the far turn (ala California Chrome).

(2ND) 3 SUMMER REVOLUTION (8-1)
Ran big off a slow pace in the Kings Bishop. Might surprise with a stalking trip. Has 14x route winner, Adhocracy, in the female tree.

(3RD) 5 CUPID (5-1)
Thought both WV and IND Derby runs were excellent in sneaky deep fields. Working great. 4th Grade 2 race (won the previous 3).

(4TH) 9 NYQUIST (5-2)
Only two losses but were last two starts. Might be an early bloomer with the peers catching up somewhat. Tricky read in this spot.

(5TH) 1 AWESOME SLEW (10-1)
Shocking win from the 14 post in the Smarty Jones. 1 for 1 on a dry dirt track (and a blowout win, too) with blinkers on. Might love this track.

(6TH) 2 EXAGERRATOR (9-2)
Never been truly convinced about him especially with a built in weather excuse. Deserves respect but likely an underlay.

(7TH) 4 CONNECT (12-1)
Top connections but think the 101 fig two back was earned on an easy lead. Like others more.

(8TH) 10 SUNNY RIDGE (12-1)
Wouldn't be surprised if he improves the most in here. Trainer winning with everything.

(9TH) 6 WILD ABOUT DEB (20-1)
Only 5 starts so still improving. Needs a big move forward to take seriously though.

(10TH) 12 HIT IT ONCE MORE (20-1)
Form is great and could be the real deal. Don't think the race flow or post does him any favors.

(11TH) 8 MY MAN SAM (20-1)
Only a maiden win to his credit. This is the kind that either runs 40 back or is right there with a a win shot late.

(12TH) 11 DISCREET LOVER (30-1)
Looks too cheap. Trainer 6 for 201 this year...Yuck!

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I'm not making a selection, but I can tell you that when I saw Nyquist at the barn before the Haskell is was clear he had gone through a growth spurt. He was eating well, but he actually looked a little thin to me. He should be more filled out today and in better shape than he was for the Haskell. I'm expecting him to run to the top of his ability today.

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by andtheyreoff

It's on CSN Mid-Atlantic in the Philadelphia and Delmarva areas. Not much, but it's a little something.

The last couple years its been Laffit Pincay and Dick Jerardi

[bobphilo]

I think Nyquist is the horse to beat here which agrees with the TFUS prediction, but I am confused as to why they predict him as the winner when they predict he will get involved in an early pace duel with Cupid.
That was his downfall in the Preakness and Haskell, where he was compromised by chasing some so-called speed biases of the tracks. I'm picking him based on the condition that he will more intelligently rated off any hot pace, as O'Neil has stated. How can he be the pick of TFUS when they also predict that he will be involved with an early hot pace?

[Secondbest]

Nyquist - unbeaten on a fast track. Takes this one
Exagerator - can run on a fast track. Up for place.
Take out way too big at parx 30% for a exacta.
Win on Nyquist at 5/2 or better

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Nyquist - unbeaten on a fast track. Takes this one
Exagerator - can run on a fast track. Up for place.
Take out way too big at parx 30% for a exacta.
Win on Nyquist at 5/2 or better

I thought the take was 20% on the exacta?

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

I thought the take was 20% on the exacta?

That is correct. Trifecta is their crazy-high one, 30%.

[castaway01]

I could see the Awesome Slew here. He loved the track in the prep race and you get 10-1. Also like Servis' Sunny Ridge at 12-1ML as a possible upsetter.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Great writeup LDH

has been looking phenomenal the past 2 weeks, like scary good. This race is his to lose.

looks good enough to pick up what pieces remain after the pace collapse, which brings me back to Nyquist. O'neil said he may keep him off the pace, bluff or not if Cupid breaks clean he may never look back.

[Burls]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Nyquist - unbeaten on a fast track. Takes this one
Exagerator - can run on a fast track. Up for place.
Take out way too big at parx 30% for a exacta.
Win on Nyquist at 5/2 or better

I love Nyquist too, but I don't think I'm going to be able to bet him today.
I have a feeling the final odds on him will be closer to 2/5.
Looks like a ton of speed up front, probably another chalk-tastic dual between and in the final furlong.
I don't think I can bet this one.
But it will be fun to watch.

[Burls]

Originally Posted by Alwaysonpoint36

looks good enough to pick up what pieces remain after the pace collapse,

I had thought that if there is any value in this race, it will be the .
But from the comments here, it's starting to look like the odds on the are going to tighten up heavily by post time.

[letswastemoney]

Exaggerator and Nyquist are in another league compared to these horses.

My Man Sam can benefit from a collapse.

Sunny Ride is my 4th choice.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Exaggerator and Nyquist are in another league compared to these horses.

My Man Sam can benefit from a collapse.

Sunny Ride is my 4th choice.

Sam is a big price if you still 'believe' in that one.