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Old 09-21-2016, 01:57 PM   #16
VigorsTheGrey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
It turned out to be a pretty good morning! The final tote analysis confirmed some of the early picks as well as pointing to a few other entries getting good action. The only real surprise came in Race #1 where a big LS scored.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9
Results: 10-5-3-8

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12
Results: 9-12-3-4

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2
Results: 7-3-1-4

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10
Results: 1-7-6-5

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9
Results: 5-1-9-11

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9
Results: 4-10-1-12

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4
Results: 1-8-3-4

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9
Results: 7-10-12-8
There is nothing surprising about picking 6 horses in each race and have 1 of them win...
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Old 09-21-2016, 02:14 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
There is nothing surprising about picking 6 horses in each race and have 1 of them win...
And there's nothing surprising about seeing such foolish statements!
Who said anything about picking winners using those selections? (Not that there's anything wrong with that - like Dutching perhaps)
If you read my original post a little bit more carefully I did mention Quinellas & Tris, but keep in mind these were only "preliminary" picks.
I won't post my actual selections off the tote because the races are over, and of course the next person will simply make accusations of red boarding.

It's unfortunate that you never followed the past Sha Tin threads. You might have gained an appreciation for things being posted that offered lots of value.
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Old 09-21-2016, 09:57 PM   #18
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
There is nothing surprising about picking 6 horses in each race and have 1 of them win...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
And there's nothing surprising about seeing such foolish statements!
Who said anything about picking winners using those selections? (Not that there's anything wrong with that - like Dutching perhaps)
If you read my original post a little bit more carefully I did mention Quinellas & Tris, but keep in mind these were only "preliminary" picks.
I won't post my actual selections off the tote because the races are over, and of course the next person will simply make accusations of red boarding.

It's unfortunate that you never followed the past Sha Tin threads. You might have gained an appreciation for things being posted that offered lots of value.
UPDATE: I received a message related to my comment about Dutching the preliminary selections. It simply read, "Check-out the results of just Dutching your Top 3 early picks. Thanks for your enthusiasm in HK racing! It's contagious. Ed"

So I did, and here's what I found:

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9
Results: 10-5-3-8
Dutch - 2 ( 4.8/1 ) – 4 ( 8.4/1 ) – 1 ( 7.8/1 ) - ($43.00) – ($43.00)
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
4.8	7.8	8.4	BET	PRF	
$12	$18	$19			
$19	$12	$12	$43	$66	155%
$109	$109	$109
R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12
Results: 9-12-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 5.1/1 ) – 1 ( 3.7/1 ) – 9 ( 3.5/1 ) - $22.00 – ($21.00)
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
3.5	3.7	5.1	BET	PRF	
$9	$9	$12			
$12	$12	$9	$33	$22	67%
$55	$55	$55
R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2
Results: 7-3-1-4
Dutch - 3 ( 1.8/1 ) – 4 ( 7.8/1 ) – 7 ( 6.7/1 ) - $20.00 – ($1.00)
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.8	6.7	7.8	BET	PRF	
$6	$15	$18			
$18	$6	$6	$30	$20	66%
$49	$49	$49
R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10
Results: 1-7-6-5
Dutch - 4 ( 13/1 ) – 9 ( 2.8/1 ) – 3 ( 43/1 ) - ($30.00) – ($31.00)
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.8	13.0	43.0	BET	PRF	
$8	$28	$88			
$22	$6	$2	$30	$58	193%
$88	$84	$88
R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9
Results: 5-1-9-11
Dutch - 8 ( 6.9/1 ) – 3 ( 4.8/1 ) – 5 ( 4.8/1 ) - $48.00 – $17.00
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
4.8	4.8	6.9	BET	PRF	
$12	$12	$16			
$16	$16	$12	$43	$48	112%
$92	$92	$92

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9
Results: 4-10-1-12
Dutch - 4 ( 6.2/1 ) – 2 ( 3.8/1 ) – 12 ( 4.8/1 ) - $33.00 – $50.00
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
3.8	4.8	6.2	BET	PRF	
$10	$12	$14			
$14	$12	$10	$36	$33	92%
$69	$69	$69
R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4
Results: 1-8-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 2.7/1 ) – 2 ( 3.1/1 ) – 1 ( 14/1 ) - $47.00 – $97.00
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.7	3.1	14.0	BET	PRF	
$7	$8	$30			
$30	$27	$7	$64	$47	72%
$111	$111	$111
R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9
Results: 7-10-12-8
Dutch - 6 ( 3/1 ) – 8 ( 14/1 ) – 12 ( 4/1 ) - ($31.00) – $66.00
Code:
LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
3.0	4.0	14.0	BET	PRF	
$8	$10	$30			
$15	$12	$4	$31	$29	94%
$60	$60	$60
Again these were preliminary picks using every race on the card. I have to admit my actual final selections were even better. But this positive result no matter how many races are played can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 5 out of 8 races (63%) produced a hypothetical profit of $66 after betting $310 or a 21% profit margin.

So yes, posting 5 or 6 selections per race can produce a positive ROI when played and observed properly.
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:02 PM   #19
VigorsTheGrey
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I stand corrected...shows how little I know about wagering....Thanks Nitro....I see your points!

I'll take time to look at this 3 horse dutching method...1st time i have seen something like this, interesting

Do you know how he arrives at how much to wager on which ones?

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 09-21-2016 at 11:06 PM.
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Old 09-21-2016, 11:34 PM   #20
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
I stand corrected...shows how little I know about wagering....Thanks Nitro....I see your points!

I'll take time to look at this 3 horse dutching method...1st time i have seen something like this, interesting

Do you know how he arrives at how much to wager on which ones?
Hey! No problem. I wasn’t even aware of this result until I pulled out my Dutch calculator and went through them all myself. The objective of Dutching is to bet the entries selected with consideration of their odds so that no matter which one wins the profit margin is the same. The calculator I use allows me to simply input the odds of 2 or 3 entries and then displays what you see above.

I generally prefer quinellas and triples, but after reviewing this I realize that might have been missing out on some really good plays that are a lot less trouble structuring.

There's a link that I posted for this calculator on Post #6 of the following thread: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...light=Dutching
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Old 09-22-2016, 12:30 AM   #21
AltonKelsey
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You start dutching beyond two horse and you'd better be talking PRICE, as your net odds dwindle quickly with odds under 10-1.

The bet they offer where they break the field into three groups, is essentially a dutch on the horses within the group.
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