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08-30-2016, 03:46 PM
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#16
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by green80
Exactly, if no one goes after the rabbit, the rabbit has a shot to win. How many times have you seen the lone speed wire a race?
As much as it cost to run a horse, the connections very rarely enter a horse that they think has "no chance" to win the race or at least get a share of the purse. In stakes races it could cost thousands of dollars to run. Why would anyone enter that thinks they have no shot?
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You really think the two rabbits on Saturday had a chance to win? Come I on.
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08-30-2016, 03:49 PM
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#17
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
You've asked an important question here. Here's another: What is the % of wire to wire winners in US dirt and US turf racing? Breaking into subsets of distance and class for each surface, you'll find what to bet, and the odds needed to profit.
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Only if you are really really good at predicting the leader, particularly the ones at bigger odds that haven't shown much speed.
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08-30-2016, 03:57 PM
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#18
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
Only if you are really really good at predicting the leader, particularly the ones at bigger odds that haven't shown much speed.
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I really really like cashing big, so it's worth the trouble and hard work... 
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08-31-2016, 12:08 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 238
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Knowledge is power.
How often in MSW races do we here folks betting Saratoga "liking" first time starters trained by D Wayne Lukas, Nick Zito, Ian WIlkes, Bill Mott, Gary Contessa and others who traditionally do not try to win with their firsters, but give them a positive experience.
Occasionally horses trained by these trainers will clunk up and win. A Ian Wilkes trainee did earlier in the meet. Wilkes was probably the most unprepared person in the house to be in the winners circle, but it happens.
98% of the other times, it doesn't.
There are two occasions that come to mind where Mott and Contessa did try with firsters. Contessa the final day of the 2014 meet, and Mott opening day of the 2016 meet. I still haven't forgiven either of them.
That's why I like playing "baby races" you get 20% automatic throw outs prior to handicapping the rest of the field.
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08-31-2016, 12:51 AM
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#20
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by green80
Exactly, if no one goes after the rabbit, the rabbit has a shot to win. How many times have you seen the lone speed wire a race?
As much as it cost to run a horse, the connections very rarely enter a horse that they think has "no chance" to win the race or at least get a share of the purse. In stakes races it could cost thousands of dollars to run. Why would anyone enter that thinks they have no shot?
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Chad Brown's rabbit got a $40,000 payday for finishing fifth. If he would have finished last, it still would have been worth $25,000.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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