Travers Stakes

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

The Midsummer Derby it's not.

A good betting race, but not many colts in here who have been exciting to date. It's a down year in that division.

..... i hear this every year, akin to 'this years 3yo crop is weak' and its a bad observation. go back to sleep we'll get off your lawn.

[bobphilo]

The Travers, known as the 4th leg of the Triple Crown, has a full and interesting field including both the Preakness and Belmont winners. I see the main choices here as Exaggerator and American Freedom - the 1-2 finishers in the Haskell.
I don't see Jim Dandy winner Laoban getting away with the crawling early fractions he got in that race but he will probably force American Freedom in an early speed duel, which is what got AF beat in the Haskell.
Exaggerator will not get the slop he likes so well but he's pretty good on a fast track too and will probably get the same early pace set-up he needs. Destin has ability but has a habit of losing focus. We'll have to see how he feels on Travers day.
I'm leaning towards an Exaggerator-American Freedom Exacta here with Destin and Governor Malibu possible plays underneath for the Tri and Super players.

Good luck all.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I'm leaning towards an Exaggerator-American Freedom Exacta here with Destin and Governor Malibu possible plays underneath for the Tri and Super players.

Good luck all.

I finished capping the race a little while ago, and I'll risk public humiliation by posting my top 5 ranked horses:

Exaggerator
American Freedom
Destin
Governor Malibu
Gun Runner

Not sure AF can hang with these, but when I'm wrong I'm usually spectacularly wrong so I might hedge with him.

Mule

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

I finished capping the race a little while ago, and I'll risk public humiliation by posting my top 5 ranked horses:

Exaggerator
American Freedom
Destin
Governor Malibu
Gun Runner

Not sure AF can hang with these, but when I'm wrong I'm usually spectacularly wrong so I might hedge with him.

Mule

Hey Mule, I think your choices are excellent. They match my own.
We can share the humiliation if they don't work out.

[Andrick]

Governor Malibu
Creator
Destin

I'm a sucker for Belmont or Jim Dandy runners in the Travers, so if I can get three that have ran in both and showed some quality in doing so then count me in.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Hey Mule, I think your choices are excellent. They match my own.
We can share the humiliation if they don't work out.

I always figure anyone that posts selections beforehand is immune from any backlash after the result is in.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Hey Mule, I think your choices are excellent. They match my own.
We can share the humiliation if they don't work out.

No surprises there....very logical order for the picks...wish I could be as clear headed about other races as you are here...

...still, I'll key My Man Sam and Creator....with Exag, American Freedom, Destin and Guns in exotics.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

As of the time of this post, the 4/1 2nd choice Connect has exactly 1 vote.

Can somebody explain to me how this entry is 4/1 on the ML and 2nd favorite while the Belmont and Arkansas Derby champion is 15/1? How is he favored over every horse that ran in the G2 Jim Dandy the day after his $100K Curlin Stakes win in which Laoban essentially ran a mirror image of his race, but a bit faster against a much stronger field?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

As of the time of this post, the 4/1 2nd choice Connect has exactly 1 vote.

Can somebody explain to me how this entry is 4/1 on the ML and 2nd favorite while the Belmont and Arkansas Derby champion is 15/1? How is he favored over every horse that ran in the G2 Jim Dandy the day after his $100K Curlin Stakes win in which Laoban essentially ran a mirror image of his race, but a bit faster against a much stronger field?

I think he'll be higher than 4-1, but the Belmont champion was pretty much terrible last out while Connect beat the wise guy Travers horse Gift Box and looked good doing it.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the poll here. I would guess plenty aren't considering Connect much because his morning line looks like he'll be a big underlay.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by cj

I think he'll be higher than 4-1, but the Belmont champion was pretty much terrible last out while Connect beat the wise guy Travers horse Gift Box and looked good doing it.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the poll here. I would guess plenty aren't considering Connect much because his morning line looks like he'll be a big underlay.

Does anyone buy the fact that the rail may not have been the place to be the day of the Curlin stakes. I remember reading the jock on Connect said he purposely kept him a path or 2 off. If so, Gift Box may be worth another look tomorrow. Will certainly be the bigger price of the 2.

[Nitro]

I’m game and throw my opinions out there.
These are my pre-tote analysis picks for the Travers.

–- Exaggerator – 3-1
-– Gun Runner -10/1
-- Governor Malibu – 12/1
–- Destin – 10/1
–- Majesto – 30/1

[trifecta]

Governor Malibu
Connect

I couldn't decide between the two but I think Governor Malibu may be better positioned on the backstretch to make a winning move turning for home. Connect has been running very well and may peak at the right time. I think he has a big chance to win the race.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by cj

I think he'll be higher than 4-1, but the Belmont champion was pretty much terrible last out while Connect beat the wise guy Travers horse Gift Box and looked good doing it.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the poll here. I would guess plenty aren't considering Connect much because his morning line looks like he'll be a big underlay.

Hey, you have on your site.

After the race, you'll post something that says you had the $52 winner.

J/K man.

I am warming up to Gift Box though. Great race.

[SoCalCircuit]

I was thinking Governor Malibu but apparently Rich Perloff picked him, so I'll probably lean towards Destin now.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Opinions:

Exaggerator = He's the only proven Grade 1 horse in the race. To beat him you need 1. A 'dud' race or 2. A nightmare trip or 3. A worse trip than a rival who steps up.

American Freedom = He ran about as well as Exaggerator in the Haskell. It wasn't obvious that AF was in the same grade as Exaggerator and Nyquist before the Haskell. If he can repeat that form, he's a Grade 1 horse. He'll have position forward of exaggerator, and will be higher odds. Sometimes the race is really that simple (sometimes it isn't).

Governer Malibu = A solid Grade 2 horse. He should be considered as a key horse in dime supers for positions 3 and 4. He'll be relatively underlaid in win and exacta wagers and will need a meltdown AND trouble for Exaggerator.


questions:
Arrogate = have to watch his replays and decide if he's 'serious'

I've read your posts in the past and tend to agree. (Even that gibberish you wrote in the previous post made sense to me)

That said, I've always thought highly of exaggerator. Don't think I can get the odds I want for Exaggerator or American Freedom.

Going with Arrogate - will be happy if I can get 7-1.. even if I lose.. the play seems profitable to me.