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08-23-2016, 11:13 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,121
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I'll say this. Off PP's I don't like him but KM is INSANELY strong cutting horses back from two turns to seven furlongs.
I can list about dozen examples but the two most recent are both Cavorting and Frosted on Belmont Day.
Literally his best move is two turns to a elongated sprint.
I'd love to know his stats going seven furlongs or seven furlong stakes.
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08-23-2016, 11:23 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperPickle
I'll say this. Off PP's I don't like him but KM is INSANELY strong cutting horses back from two turns to seven furlongs.
I can list about dozen examples but the two most recent are both Cavorting and Frosted on Belmont Day.
Literally his best move is two turns to a elongated sprint.
I'd love to know his stats going seven furlongs or seven furlong stakes.
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Cavorting has never run in a two turn race. Her debut in one is Saturday in the Personal Ensign.
Kiaran is not especially good turning back from routes to sprints on dirt. Over the last five years he's 17 for 70, 24%, with a $176 ROI. This is probably one of the strongest statistical categories for trainers in general.
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08-23-2016, 11:26 PM
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#18
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperPickle
I'll say this. Off PP's I don't like him but KM is INSANELY strong cutting horses back from two turns to seven furlongs.
I can list about dozen examples but the two most recent are both Cavorting and Frosted on Belmont Day.
Literally his best move is two turns to a elongated sprint.
I'd love to know his stats going seven furlongs or seven furlong stakes.
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Also, Frosted didn't turn back to seven furlongs obviously since he ran in the Met Mile.
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08-23-2016, 11:32 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Also, Frosted didn't turn back to seven furlongs obviously since he ran in the Met Mile.
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I was thinking dubai to the one turn mile.
Although given the Whitney he might be a two turn horse.
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08-23-2016, 11:34 PM
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#20
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Mohaymen can potentially dominate this race.
He also may run a complete 'dud' race.
He's a polarizing horse, and a number of good handicappers on this board have varying opinions about him.
I like the horse. I picked him in the Derby. I picked him in the Jim Dandy. I thought his Jim Dandy was 'flat' enough that I'm not sure I am willing to excuse him, even with his troubled start. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he trounces this field.
I just want 6-1/8-1 on this horse.
Doubt we see that...
If you want to bet Mohaymen, you are going to have to pay for the fact that he's a well known, well-liked horse, who many (whether they are right or not) still 'believe' in.
I can't bet those types.
As a fan, I'd love to see him run big.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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08-24-2016, 10:16 AM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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I'm still on the fence about this horse.
Most people thought his Florida Derby was weak, but I didn't. Being very wide while close up to a fast horse like Nyquist is not an easy trip. Maybe it exposed him as not being a top notch horse, but it wasn't as bad an effort as it looked.
The Derby was trickier. The raw fractions were clearly very fast, but 2 out of the top 3 finishers were close to that pace. (I had some thoughts that CD was carrying speed better than usual given the paces of some of the races). Several horses with similar deep closing trips in the Derby came back to run well and the front runners have not exactly set the world on fire. I think the Derby was probably more neutrally run than the fractions indicated. IMO his effort was OK.
In the Jim Dandy he was off a little slowly and never did any running, but it was an unexpectedly slow paced merry-go-round race where Creator also didn't do much running from the back. It was also off a layoff/freshening and was a prep.
I'll have to see the PPs before I know what to do with him in the Kings Bishop. I thought he was a little overrated early in the year, but all the disappointments may be creating a situation where he is becoming a little underrated.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-24-2016 at 10:19 AM.
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08-24-2016, 10:45 AM
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#22
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
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It's been a long time since this horse aroused an interest.
I'm holding onto my money until he runs at finger Lakes.
Then I 'll unload..... to place!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-24-2016, 12:11 PM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 818
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This horse isnt a classic 1 1/4 horse. 7/8 to a mile is his lick. I like this race better than the Travers.
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08-24-2016, 04:59 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
It's been a long time since this horse aroused an interest.
I'm holding onto my money until he runs at finger Lakes.
Then I 'll unload..... to place!
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I'm seeing a theme to many of your recent posts.
I take it the racing isn't so good at FL lately?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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08-25-2016, 10:52 AM
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#25
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
Weird statement given Hard Spun went against the big boys in the Classic. He also beat Street Sense in the very next race.
I'm thinking it had more to do with the $25m bonus they got in the stud contract. HS was probably best at a mile but he ran ok at every distance.
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Why weird? Hard Spun ran in this race because it was the easier race to win, and get the breeding bonus. If the distance mattered, if Hard Spun was truly a one-turn sprinter, why didn't he run in the BC sprint?
From the handicapping perspective it’s a nice race, that doesn’t mean it’s a grade one. Looks like a prime candidate for the graded stakes committee to downgrade. Only once has the winner gone on win the BC Sprint(2001 Squirtle Squirt).
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08-25-2016, 12:18 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: burnaby bc canada
Posts: 332
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Didn't Runhappy win the Sprint last year? I know he had a race between the King's Bishop and the BC Sprint, but he did win both
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08-25-2016, 01:13 PM
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#27
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Yes he did Mike, thanks for the correction. Still, two in the 30-year history of the BC Sprint is not a lot.
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08-29-2016, 04:51 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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So where does he go now?
That race was so bad, it's hard for me to believe that he actually ran his race. Had made a little run, finished 5th or 6th, and ran another mid 90s Beyer, that would be one thing. But when you finish 11th and run an 83 with no obvious excuse, it's often the case that something has gone wrong. If he is OK, there aren't many options for him. He's already through his conditions and more losses are just going to reduce his value.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-29-2016 at 04:53 PM.
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08-29-2016, 05:07 PM
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#29
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
So where does he go now?
That race was so bad, it's hard for me to believe that he actually ran his race. Had made a little run, finished 5th or 6th, and ran another mid 90s Beyer, that would be one thing. But when you finish 11th and run an 83 with no obvious excuse, it's often the case that something has gone wrong. If he is OK, there aren't many options for him. He's already through his conditions and more losses are just going to reduce his value.
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I thought I read he was injured during the race.
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08-29-2016, 05:09 PM
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#30
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 818
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
So where does he go now?
That race was so bad, it's hard for me to believe that he actually ran his race. Had made a little run, finished 5th or 6th, and ran another mid 90s Beyer, that would be one thing. But when you finish 11th and run an 83 with no obvious excuse, it's often the case that something has gone wrong. If he is OK, there aren't many options for him. He's already through his conditions and more losses are just going to reduce his value.
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I read somewhere he was going to get a break.
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