Talk is obviously centered around California Chrome and Beholder. And we can't forget about Dortmund for a fearsome threesome of horses in form, training as well as they maybe ever have, and ready to roll.
While the rest of the field looks to be outclassed, the Big 3 are all "on the engine" types and could certainly wear each other down over 10 Furlongs. Problem is, without another true speed horse in the race, it is hard to see the Big 3 beating each other into submission.
Califronia Chrome: Deserving favorite, and as of right now the class of the older male division. This is undoubtedly the horse to beat. The 1 hole won't be a problem as he should get out fine and be on or near the lead. Especially with
Hoppertunity directly to his right, and unless
War Story goes nuts, should be comfortable early in this race.
Hoppertunity: The true closer in this field. He may not get a better chance to beat the likes of the Big 3 than he'll get Saturday. Problem is, he has always fallen short at this level, even though he runs his heart out every time he gets in the gate. Hard to see him turning the tables this time around, but at his largest price in a very very long time, and with what should be a solid pace set up, could he get it done when nobody is wagering on him?
War Story: I'm sure I could go through the history books, but I'd be damn sure nobody has shipped from Thistledowns and won the Pacific Classic. This guy started his racing career with monster expectations, and for a while was on the Kentucky Derby trail just last year and even ran in the Derby. After his 16th place finish in the KD, his career has spiraled, has now changed trainers for a 4th time, and ships in from Ohio. Most people enjoy the Chrome story of a horse from nowhere; but how about the regally bred horse that is against it, getting taken over by nobody connections, and rolling home in one of the biggest G1 races in the country while beating 3 of the best horses in training right now? Ummm, yeah. 30/1 seems about right.
Hard Aces: A tough customer that can win on his best day. He should sit a good trip, and if a pace meltdown occurs, he could be sitting in the catbird seat. He should be fit after the 12 furlong Cougar that he won wire to wire. At a 15/1 ML, he is a bit interesting.
Win The Space: Has really turned the corner is his 4YO season. Can he keep getting better? Chrome and Dortmund put him away last out, so he has a lot of ground to make up, and looked like another 1 1/2 furlongs against those two last out was further away than Pluto. Will need a career best, and that might not be good enough to hit the board.
Imperative: 3 for 32 lifetime. A constant Graded Stakes out of the money horse is the very definition of middler. Outside of a handful of races at or even near this level, he seems to split the field. And in 9 to 10 horse fields, that doesn't do you much. Really hard to see, even in the Trifecta.
Beholder: I'm not too worried about her loss to another gal last time out. She was in hand, was off the long layoff, and didn't need to win that one. Obviously. The defending champ loves this track and is training lights out from all reports. Last year she let the pace develop and made one of the biggest moves in recent memory rolling around the turn and into the stretch to shame the field. This is a much tougher field, and the ones in front won't collapse this time around. To me, she is either every bit a part of this race as a serious W contender, or she is completely out of the Trifecta. I'm going with the latter.
Dortmund: Little doubt what he needs to do. Get on or near the lead, and grind out a win. This big chestnut has put on good weight since his last out (according to reports) and is in the best shape and form of is career. As a 4YO, he may well be entering his true prime. In his 11 career races, which includes 8 Graded Stakes races, only 3 horses have ever beat him. Chrome. American Pharoah, and Firing Line. The biggest question for Dorty is 10 furlongs. Will his age and development get him there this time around? He could be sitting on a monster race.
Dalmore: This might well be the most interesting entry in the race for me. A 3YO taking on older horses, getting 6 pounds, an outside draw which should be good for him, and a race that could melt down in front of him. 20/1 ML is probably fair, but this is a scary horse that is improving every race out. Problem is, this is by far the best class of horses he has ever faced, and less than 5 months ago he was still a maiden and now looking to beat Chrome, Beholder, and Dortmund. Disney doesn't even write these kinds of stories, right?
