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Old 07-21-2016, 01:56 PM   #31
thaskalos
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What real proof is there to support the popular notion that the majority of these horses are "slaves" to their own particular (and predictable) "running styles"? Being the glutton for punishment that I am, I will regularly chance a wager at locales such as Portland Meadows, Prairie Meadows and Indiana Downs...where it is common to see the lowliest claimers refrain from setting the early pace, as they normally do...and yet they often manage to win the race quite nicely by charging from well back in the field. If the cheapest horses on the grounds can do it...couldn't it be that the better horses might be able to do this as well?

"Predicting" how the race is likely to unfold today is an endeavor with obvious limitations, IMO...and I doubt that it deserves the sort of attention that most handicappers give it.
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Old 07-21-2016, 02:19 PM   #32
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Pace can be useful in prediction, but that usefulness requires considerably more complex a perspective on pace analysis than the simplistic "popular" theories might suggest is required.
I completely agree.

In my own endeavors, I tried to get away from pace because it seems to put you on so many low-priced horses. (This is especially true using simple modeling techniques such as Brohamer's approach.)

Instead, I actually wound up making deeper models, or what I call "Sub-Models."


My Modeling Approach
Essentially, I begin with track-surface-distance (TSD) just like the conventional approach. However, the concept of the "small, recent model" just does not seem to work any more.

So, when I filter the past races, I go for TSD, but with a similar pace pressure score. (I use Randy Gile's idea to only count Q-ES 5+ points, which was just brilliant.) I demand +/-4 points from today, searching for a maximum of 100 races.

For common configurations, this will go back 2-3 years but for the rare ones (such as 5 or more front runners) it might go back 6-7 years and still only get a handful of races. The minimum races required are 15.


Sub-Models
What makes this whole thing work is that the system is then queried to build 4 objects, that describe how the races were actually run, relative to the 1st call position of the winner.

Obj3: Only looks at winners that were within 1.00 length at the 1st call.

Obj2: Only looks at winners that were within 3.00 lengths at the 1st call.

Obj1: Only looks at winners that were outside of 3.00 lengths at the 1st call.

Obj0: Only looks at winners that were outside of 6.00 lengths at the 1st call.


Thus, I wind up with 4 objects, each representing who will likely win the race if it runs a particular way.


If any of you are interested in knowing more about how this works, please let me know. With a few responses, I will do a short video seminar on the topic. Just email me and say, "I am interested in the Pace Sub-Model stuff." Please note that you will need to be signed up for the email list to receive an invite.

Click here to join our email list.


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Old 07-21-2016, 02:23 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by traynor
I wrote (and have spent years continually improving) an app that does what your queries do (as you state above), and more. I think when you get to the serious research phase of applying the pace predictions so generated to a large database you will find that much of the promise of pace analysis is only realized after the race is over. And much of "pace theory" is little more than smoke and mirrors--big on promise, but short on useful application to the real world problem of predicting winners.

I am definitely not "anti-pace." I have been using (and continually learning more about) pace analysis since the early 1980s. I even wrote a training app to enable members of the blackjack team I was "associated with" to develop the pattern-recognition skills to find races worth betting, the "true contenders" in such races, and the "most predictive pace lines" for each of those contenders. It was (and is) a non-trivial piece of work.

Pace can be useful in prediction, but that usefulness requires considerably more complex a perspective on pace analysis than the simplistic "popular" theories might suggest is required.
I still can't agree with you. You may be looking for universal truths applicable to all races across your database. I am looking for situations where my probability of being correct is high or where I at least know how likely it is I will be right.

I've already been using pace analysis successfully for a long time (including projections) in certain situations as part of my game. To me, that part of it is already settled.

What I am less certain of is the ability to automate a lot of it so you can be directed to races that may be playable with a stoke of a key instead of a subjective analysis of hundreds of horses and races one by one for hours.

But a side benefit of the research is that I am no longer learning by trial and error. I can ask questions and get exact answers.
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Old 07-21-2016, 02:38 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
What real proof is there to support the popular notion that the majority of these horses are "slaves" to their own particular (and predictable) "running styles"? Being the glutton for punishment that I am, I will regularly chance a wager at locales such as Portland Meadows, Prairie Meadows and Indiana Downs...where it is common to see the lowliest claimers refrain from setting the early pace, as they normally do...and yet they often manage to win the race quite nicely by charging from well back in the field. If the cheapest horses on the grounds can do it...couldn't it be that the better horses might be able to do this as well?

"Predicting" how the race is likely to unfold today is an endeavor with obvious limitations, IMO...and I doubt that it deserves the sort of attention that most handicappers give it.

I'm going to essentially repeat myself in case you didn't read my previous response.

IMO, the idea is not to come up with some universally applicable formula or way of thinking and apply it to all races. It's to find situations where you are very likely to be right about the running styles, pace, and impact or where you at least know the probability you will be right so you can adjust your thinking on the values.

What works in a high quality 7F sprint in NY/CA may not work so well in a turf route at some second string track.
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Old 07-21-2016, 02:57 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I still can't agree with you. You may be looking for universal truths applicable to all races across your database. I am looking for situations where my probability of being correct is high or where I at least know how likely it is I will be right.

I've already been using pace analysis successfully for a long time (including projections) in certain situations as part of my game. To me, that part of it is already settled.

What I am less certain of is the ability to automate a lot of it so you can be directed to races that may be playable with a stoke of a key instead of a subjective analysis of hundreds of horses and races one by one for hours.

But a side benefit of the research is that I am no longer learning by trial and error. I can ask questions and get exact answers.
I have little or no interest in chasing the rainbow of universal truths applicable to all races. Specifically, testing pace analysis involves layering--isolating and extracting those specific races in which the "pace scenario" in question would (be believed to) apply, and testing it against that specific sub-population of races. Plain vanilla, first semester community college data analysis will work fine for starters.

Consider it the equivalent of, "Yeah, this junk looks good in that race, and maybe even in a couple of races from Nowhere Downs, but what is going to happen if I repeat the process in x number of similar races" (in which I would erroneously believe that I have/had some piece of information that was predictive of the result)?

I do not seek agreement. I only suggest that anyone who intends to use "pace analysis" in his or her wagering would do well to go beyond the simplistic ideas most consider "pace analysis."
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:03 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
What real proof is there to support the popular notion that the majority of these horses are "slaves" to their own particular (and predictable) "running styles"? Being the glutton for punishment that I am, I will regularly chance a wager at locales such as Portland Meadows, Prairie Meadows and Indiana Downs...where it is common to see the lowliest claimers refrain from setting the early pace, as they normally do...and yet they often manage to win the race quite nicely by charging from well back in the field. If the cheapest horses on the grounds can do it...couldn't it be that the better horses might be able to do this as well?

"Predicting" how the race is likely to unfold today is an endeavor with obvious limitations, IMO...and I doubt that it deserves the sort of attention that most handicappers give it.
In the real world, little or none--at least that involves anything remotely resembling "serious " research. As in, "Wow. It is MY money that I'm going to be betting on this nonsense, so I better do everything I can to be sure it is useful nonsense."
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:23 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
I have little or no interest in chasing the rainbow of universal truths applicable to all races. Specifically, testing pace analysis involves layering--isolating and extracting those specific races in which the "pace scenario" in question would (be believed to) apply, and testing it against that specific sub-population of races. Plain vanilla, first semester community college data analysis will work fine for starters.

Consider it the equivalent of, "Yeah, this junk looks good in that race, and maybe even in a couple of races from Nowhere Downs, but what is going to happen if I repeat the process in x number of similar races" (in which I would erroneously believe that I have/had some piece of information that was predictive of the result)?

I do not seek agreement. I only suggest that anyone who intends to use "pace analysis" in his or her wagering would do well to go beyond the simplistic ideas most consider "pace analysis."
What you seem to be arguing is that you are doing something that you think has more value that pace prediction (which is great). I put more energy into after race pace analysis and watching the races than pre race analysis because I think it has more value. But imo you are vastly overstating the case against being able to predict extreme and impactful paces. I have loads of data that prove it can be done and have done it successfully at the windows. I'm kind of private about picks, but CJ does it publicly in threads and on twitter all the time when it seems clear. There are tools on the market that demonstrate that it can be done well enough to add value.
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:27 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by traynor
I do not seek agreement. I only suggest that anyone who intends to use "pace analysis" in his or her wagering would do well to go beyond the simplistic ideas most consider "pace analysis."
The same thing holds true for virtually any factor used to bet on horse racing.
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:42 PM   #39
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I think you give the trainers too much credit for big thinking and knowing how well a horse will perform.

There are certainly some who do so, but in any given race I doubt that there are more than 3-4 horses (maybe less) that are actually "trying" to win.
This is JMO, I don't know the number of trainers "trying" to win but I feel (and hope) it's most of them in any given race. I realize that some are in to fill the race or to give a horse speed or distance etc. I do agree with you that I really think most don't know which races to place their horses probably because they feel their horses are better than they really are. I'm basing my opinion by looking at the ITM% of the horses and the horse's purse earnings. The >15% trainers making good money are probably very few which you can look up the trainer stats on the Equibase website. I've often wondered how a lot of these trainers survive in this economy because it's not from winning a share of the purses.

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Old 07-21-2016, 03:43 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by cj
The same thing holds true for virtually any factor used to bet on horse racing.
Except when class or speed goes wrong usually we can find the horse was improving. Not so with pace.
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:47 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I think you give the trainers too much credit for big thinking and knowing how well a horse will perform.

There are certainly some who do so, but in any given race I doubt that there are more than 3-4 horses (maybe less) that are actually "trying" to win.
I am not seeing your answer disagreeing with what I said even though it appears that you are thinking we do disagree. When to try is the chess game.
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Old 07-21-2016, 03:49 PM   #42
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Some good comments.

Thanks
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Old 07-21-2016, 04:06 PM   #43
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The same thing holds true for virtually any factor used to bet on horse racing.
Absolutely.
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Old 07-21-2016, 04:16 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
What you seem to be arguing is that you are doing something that you think has more value that pace prediction (which is great). I put more energy into after race pace analysis and watching the races than pre race analysis because I think it has more value. But imo you are vastly overstating the case against being able to predict extreme and impactful paces. I have loads of data that prove it can be done and have done it successfully at the windows. I'm kind of private about picks, but CJ does it publicly in threads and on twitter all the time when it seems clear. There are tools on the market that demonstrate that it can be done well enough to add value.

"(P)redict(ing) extreme and impactful paces" is not the issue. The issue is how accurately the pop methods of "pace analysis" enable one to divine the winner of upcoming races.

Almost everything works at one time or another. The trick is in not becoming overly enamored of a trivial number of instances, and avoiding mindless extrapolation of that trivial number of instances as being representative of (all or most of) the instances in a (much) larger population. Whether in "pace analysis" or any other aspect of handicapping horse races.
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Old 07-21-2016, 05:12 PM   #45
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"(P)redict(ing) extreme and impactful paces" is not the issue. The issue is how accurately the pop methods of "pace analysis" enable one to divine the winner of upcoming races.
Yes. I agree.

But if you are getting the running styles right often enough and getting the extreme paces right often enough, you already have a tool that enables you to downgrade or upgrade certain horses that might not be bet right.

For me at least, none of the pre race stuff is ever enough to stop the rest of the handicapping process right there. You have to look at the ability of the horses that may benefit also. I also try to profile the kinds of horses that win under that scenario .
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