NYRA TURF ROUTES

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

That will never work.

These people will have nobody to blame because they didn't do the work and lost.

Guys. While you're doing 4 pages of crying. Someone is quietly working and winning the $$$.

OTHERS ARE WINNING THE $$$. You do understand that?

You can put in all the work in the world. No amount of work will help when there are 4 confirmed speed horses and 3 of them are taken back. That's insanity and it happens daily. bettors should be protected here like they are in other parts of the world

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

You can put in all the work in the world. No amount of work will help when there are 4 confirmed speed horses and 3 of them are taken back. That's insanity and it happens daily. bettors should be protected here like they are in other parts of the world

I hope it doesn't stop .. my wallet is enjoying it.. Like i said there are exceptions


Hope i don't have to hear cry baby all Saratoga on this subject.. its stale

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

I hope it doesn't stop .. my wallet is enjoying it.. Like i said there are exceptions


Hope i don't have to hear cry baby all Saratoga on this subject.. its stale

I hope I don't have to hear phony redboards and nonsensical stuff all Saratoga long as well.

Thanks in advance

[classhandicapper]

I would guess that after decades of brilliant horsemen training turf horses, some of them would have thought to try to put more early speed into their horses. If they did and it was working better, they would have continued. So either no one has done it or it doesn't work. I think the latter is more likely.

What I think is happening in part is that US handicappers that learned the game primarily betting on dirt races (like myself) have well thought out handicapping theories and techniques that explain dirt racing and work well but they do not apply to turf racing. Rather than coming up with a new theory, they keep trying to fit turf racing into their dirt model of thinking.

If trainers think that finishing fast is the ideal style and the riders think that saving their horse gives them the best chance to hold off the better closers, then you are going to get more of those extremely slow paces that do impact the results even on turf. But that still leads to fewer w2w winners than on dirt. That's the reality you need a new technique/model to decipher.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I hope I don't have to hear phony redboards and nonsensical stuff all Saratoga long as well.

Thanks in advance

Not sure if that's a shoot towards me or not.. in case it was...How many winners have you posted here? I posted countless goldmines in the HTW thread here. i stopped because no one seemed like they wanted to add anything.. If it wasn't a shoot at me i apologize in advance,

[johnhannibalsmith]

Seems to work okay for Wesley Ward.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

Not sure if that's a shoot towards me or not.. in case it was...How many winners have you posted here? I posted countless goldmines in the HTW thread here. i stopped because no one seemed like they wanted to add anything.. If it wasn't a shoot at me i apologize in advance,

I've probably posted a hundred or so winners here.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would guess that after decades of brilliant horsemen training turf horses, some of them would have thought to try to put more early speed into their horses. If they did and it was working better, they would have continued. So either no one has done it or it doesn't work. I think the latter is more likely..........

To accept your line of thinking would mean that a bettor would have to give up an excuse as to why they had to tear up a ticket. I am betting the don't with regard to that happening.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I've probably posted a hundred or so winners here.

sorry i didn't look at threads from 5 yrs ago

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Seems to work okay for Wesley Ward.

This is a good point that'll get ignored.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

To accept your line of thinking would mean that a bettor would have to give up an excuse as to why they had to tear up a ticket. I am betting the don't with regard to that happening.

lmao

I don't claim to have a very good understanding of turf racing. All I know is that in my more formative years I didn't do very well betting turf races like they were dirt races.

When my theories conflict with reality it usually my theories that are wrong.

Turf racing is tougher for me to get a handle on, but at least I am aware of that and am trying to think about it differently. I'm mostly a class handicapper to begin with. I think that works a lot better on turf than figures. The difference is that on turf I rarely try to make a pace projection unless it looks really extreme. I don't think pace matters as much unless it's extreme. I also don't downgrade w2w winners off slow paces much anymore unless it was extreme. That's what the data tells me to do. The last piece is fitting in the closing times better with the rest of what I am doing.

I do better now. I'm at least in the battle.

[cj]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

its pretty simple. the lead is shit on the grass.. the lead horse dose all the work and gets tired or horse goes too slow on lead gets no separation and doesn't have good enough turn of foot to hold off the real runners.. there is a reason no one wants the lead.. off course there are exceptions.. the jockeys are just playing the percentages and giving their selves the best chance to win period.
AND

if you look at the races where there is a front runner winning a horse is simply the best on figs or most the time there where some troubled trips if you look hard enough you will spot it

Like i said there are exceptions .... A massive example was speed at CD last meet ...

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would guess that after decades of brilliant horsemen training turf horses, some of them would have thought to try to put more early speed into their horses. If they did and it was working better, they would have continued. So either no one has done it or it doesn't work. I think the latter is more likely.

OK, this stuff is just flat out incorrect. Here is every turf race in my database going back to the beginning of 2009. It shows where the winner was after the four furlong (the official first call) for all races on turf at least 8 furlongs in distance and not more than 9 furlongs. These are the vast majority of turf races in North America.

There are 26,143 races that fit. The totals are given in raw numbers and percentage of the total. This is a rough query that doesn't take field size into account. I can do that later on if people are interested, but experience tells me it won't change the general trend. Horses running 1st early win more often than horses running second early. Horses running second early win more than horses running third early, and so on. Horses running last early win way less than should be expected.

[Dahoss9698]

I know this is going to sound funny to some but to me, jockeys and trainers are the worst when it comes to understanding race shapes, pace, etc.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by cj

OK, this stuff is just flat out incorrect. Here is every turf race in my database going back to the beginning of 2009. It shows where the winner was after the four furlong (the official first call) for all races on turf at least 8 furlongs in distance and not more than 9 furlongs. These are the vast majority of turf races in North America.

There are 26,143 races that fit. The totals are given in raw numbers and percentage of the total. This is a rough query that doesn't take field size into account. I can do that later on if people are interested, but experience tells me it won't change the general trend. Horses running 1st early win more often than horses running second early. Horses running second early win more than horses running third early, and so on. Horses running last early win way less than should be expected.

I've been betting more turf race lately, mainly because of my new Power Pace method, which pinpoints horses that have enough speed to be in contention at the pace call but have stamina. The bottom line is, if you avoid betting deep closers, your win percentage goes up.

Yes, turf races are won by horses that finish well, but that doesn't mean that they need to be coming from far back.

[no breathalyzer]

jockey doesn't matter to this board also what happens to them numbers on turf races over 1 mile? I should of been more clear i guess who doesn't want to be forwardly placed in turf sprints. For true turf routes does speed hold up as well? Also how many of them horses had the lead for the whole 4f (the official first call) The race is half over at that point. also them figs don't break down by track