G1 Belmont Stakes

[Valuist]

Maybe replace Stradivari with stablemate Destin in that box. Dream of Summer was a multiple Grade 2 winner on dirt. Bending Strings, dam of Stradivari also a graded SW but between 6 furlongs and a mile.

[Michael]

Rather lose then back Exaggerator on top, even though he's head and shoulders. The context of the race gives me hope.

Only value bets I came up with are: Suddenbreakingnews and Lani

Destin looks fine at 6/1 but at that point I'd rather back SBN if I can get around 7/1. The 20/1 on Lani just seems way off. I'll be happy at 8/1.

Don't like Brody at all. Just feels like betting a gut shot straight draw on the turn.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Michael

Rather lose then back Exaggerator on top, even though he's head and shoulders. The context of the race gives me hope.

Only value bets I came up with are: Suddenbreakingnews and Lani

Destin looks fine at 6/1 but at that point I'd rather back SBN if I can get around 7/1. The 20/1 on Lani just seems way off. I'll be happy at 8/1.

Don't like Brody at all. Just feels like betting a gut shot straight draw on the turn.

Very good comparison for Brody.

[raybo]

Traditionally, the mile and a half Belmont favors front-end runners (< 4-5 lengths or so) that also have something late. Find that, get decent odds, and you're good to go. Many think the Belmont favors the late types, but I find that most of those are usually too tired to make that long run down the stretch and pass horses at the front. Give me a horse who can stay close early, and finish strong.

[Hoops McCann]

Lani
Governor Malibu
Suddenbreakingnews

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by Andrick

Well, nobody has ever said I was smart. Just the opposite probably. But I landed on Governor Malibu myself. And just to reinforce that I`m the opposite of smart, I may have talked myself into using Forever d`Oro as well. The latter is more of a case of me not being enamoured with the other entries besides Governor Malibu for various reasons, so I might as well go with a big price that has a few things to like about him (pedigree, win over track, jockey, etc).

I'm with you and fell on Governor Malibu for my long odds horse. I thought there was something a little weird about his start in the Peter Pan and I really liked the way he finished that race. He should be able to get himself into a good position 3rd or 4th without expending too much energy and from there it is only a question of getting the distance.

That being said, if Exaggerator is on point he looks tough to beat regardless of pace scenario. Am I crazy, or does it seem that Exaggerator has a huge "class" advantage over the rest of these?

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT

I'm with you and fell on Governor Malibu for my long odds horse. I thought there was something a little weird about his start in the Peter Pan and I really liked the way he finished that race. He should be able to get himself into a good position 3rd or 4th without expending too much energy and from there it is only a question of getting the distance.

That being said, if Exaggerator is on point he looks tough to beat regardless of pace scenario. Am I crazy, or does it seem that Exaggerator has a huge "class" advantage over the rest of these?

I wouldn't say "class" advantage; I'd say "speed figure" advantage. Most(not all) here have been running in graded stakes races.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Michael

...Only value bets I came up with are: Suddenbreakingnews and Lani

Destin looks fine at 6/1 but at that point I'd rather back SBN if I can get around 7/1. The 20/1 on Lani just seems way off. I'll be happy at 8/1.

FWIW, your two value bets are big underlays IMHO, based on early wagering.

With $220,407 in early wagering (from BelmontStakes.com) as of 7:59 AM EDT, the morning line, current odds, and my take on the value:

# 1 Governor Malibu (12-1, 15-1) about right
# 2 Destin (6-1, 14-1) nice overlay
# 3 Cherry Wine (8-1, 7-1) underlay
# 4 Suddenbreakingnews (10-1, 9-2) big underlay
# 5 Stradivari (5-1, 11-1) about right
# 6 Gettysburg (30-1, 61-1) about right
# 7 Seeking The Soul (30-1, 75-1) about right
# 8 Forever D'oro (30-1, 94-1) about right
# 9 Trojan Nation (30-1, 71-1) overlay
# 10 Lani (20-1, 11-1) big underlay
# 11 Exaggerator (9-5, 1-1) slight underlay
# 12 Brody's Cause (20-1, 23-1) about right
# 13 Creator (10-1, 19-1) nice overlay

Not sure who I like to win, but I for some reason I like the maiden to be part of the super.....

Good luck to all today.....

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by Michael

Rather lose then back Exaggerator on top, even though he's head and shoulders. The context of the race gives me hope.

Only value bets I came up with are: Suddenbreakingnews and Lani

Destin looks fine at 6/1 but at that point I'd rather back SBN if I can get around 7/1. The 20/1 on Lani just seems way off. I'll be happy at 8/1.

Don't like Brody at all. Just feels like betting a gut shot straight draw on the turn.

I like a Lani, SBN, Stradavari ex box

SBN/ Lani, Exagg, Stradivari/ Lani, Exagg, Stradavari, Brody, Creator for Tri/Sup

[fiznow]

I really like Governor Malibu at these odds. Worth a bet in any case...

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by fiznow

I really like Governor Malibu at these odds. Worth a bet in any case...

Fish Trappe Road's performance in the Woody Stephens definitely another positive to add in Governor Malibu's column.



Edit: Oh and Rosario is on fire today.

[Michael]

@ Parkview_Pirate

that's why I wrote my odds line. To articulate for me when horses like SBN is below my acceptable odds. Thus, my overlays would be destin & Lani

[Michael]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

I like a Lani, SBN, Stradavari ex box

SBN/ Lani, Exagg, Stradivari/ Lani, Exagg, Stradavari, Brody, Creator for Tri/Sup

Stradivari was the 1 horse I left off that can certainly crash the party. I like where your mind is at

[thespaah]

With regard to Lani....I thought this was a wise guy horse in the Derby..I thought it was a contender for minor awards in the Preakness.
I think his plodder style does not suit hm well in this field because there is little for Lani or any other of the back markers to close into.
TLG was interviewed today on Down The Stretch with Dave Johnson and Bill Finley. TLG made a good funny...He said he'd include Lani in his bets if there was an "Octafecta".....

[thespaah]

I posted in another thread that i think its best to find the stalkers in here and bet those.