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Old 05-26-2016, 09:43 PM   #16
whodoyoulike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
I used to always go down to the paddock, and I have seen many horses who looked sweaty and jittery win with ease. ...
There's always exceptions when it comes to handicapping, being sweaty and jittery has also been a couple of turn offs for me. But, I'm not or have been an expert on viewing physicality, still much to learn.

Being sweaty when it's not humid or hot is a warning sign for me and if the horse is my contender I'll pass but, if it's very hot or humid it would be an acceptable excuse. I'll also view the other horses.

Last edited by whodoyoulike; 05-26-2016 at 09:44 PM.
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:29 PM   #17
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I almost never play P-whatevers, but admit they interest me. I know a few fellows who play them like they are the only bet.
Picking winners 5 or 6 races out is made more difficult as you do not have the advantage of live tote and therefore have to estimate what final odds will be. That can be problematic. But like other exotics the logic for winning can be enhanced by your ability to afford coverage. "It takes money to make money" is just as true in wagering on horse races as in any other business, and exotics may be the most glaring example of proof.
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:44 PM   #18
Steve 'StatMan'
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Originally Posted by green80
What is it that you think you are going to spot that the track vet doesn't see?
It may be important to keep in mind, the Track Vet's job isn't to find the horses who won't win. Their job is to make sure that the horses are sound enough to race, or try to race, that day. Whether they win, get a small check, or run out is not important. That they not break down, esp in front or amongst other horses is. Or any that look like the physical exertion of the race could harm or kill them, more so than the risks that all racehorses (and riders) take.
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:51 PM   #19
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Very simply, Best bet in racing is the Pick 5.

Bankroll and Balls equals a huge edge over others.

Vig spread out over multiple races.

Ability to weigh out how "right" you are can cause a score times 2,3,4,10,100.

If you do your true/overall/well rounded homework, you have a huge edge over people who are paper cappers, data cappers, system cappers as they might be right once but over 5 races, a well rounded capper will have a HUGE edge over 1 trick ponies.
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Old 05-26-2016, 11:44 PM   #20
AndyC
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Vig spread out over multiple races.

The vig isn't lessened just because you have to be right about 5 races instead of just 1.
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Old 05-26-2016, 11:49 PM   #21
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I personally would never waste my time or money on a horizontal Pick-whatever bet. Why? Very simple because anyone who plays them realizes first of all that they’re forced into playing one (or more) race in the sequence that they may not be comfortable with. So what do they do for that race? Combine as many entries as they feel necessary to keep their bet alive. (Hopefully that occurs in as few races in the sequence as possible to keep the cost of the bet down).
How do you avoid this dilemma? Very simple select only the races you are most comfortable with and create your own horizontal play by parlaying your winnings from race to race. This can be done with vertical exotics on a race by race basis too.

There have been some comments on physicality observations too. Well, unfortunately unless you’re psychic or privy to some worthwhile inside information the ONLY race in your Pick-whatever bet where you can actually examine the field is the First race in the sequence. Beyond that you’re out of luck. Not too cool if your single in any of the following races comes out looking like crap.

Besides I like idea of selecting and playing races that offer value that I can recognize, and passing races that don’t. Combine some winning Exacta or Triple parlays and your average Pick-whatever bet may not look so enticing by comparison.
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Old 05-27-2016, 12:16 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Nitro

Besides I like idea of selecting and playing races that offer value that I can recognize, and passing races that don’t. Combine some winning Exacta or Triple parlays and your average Pick-whatever bet may not look so enticing by comparison.
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Ditto. On a typical 9 race card, I rarely find more than 2 or 3 races that I consider playable. And then only if the odds are right. Beyond that is gambling, usually at bad odds. It's even worse if you are gambling at unknown odds.
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Old 05-27-2016, 06:24 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by AndyC
The vig isn't lessened just because you have to be right about 5 races instead of just 1.

It is if you compare betting 5 races vs 1 race. The racetracks have kept making more 'lottery' type bets and fewer 'blackjack' type bets and have lost patrons to their casinos, that can churn 24 hrs many places.
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Old 05-27-2016, 08:07 AM   #24
MonmouthParkJoe
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All I play now are pick 4s and 5s. I used to be a big win bettor, but I enjoy the horizontals much more now and find myself doing much better. Andddd it actually helps with my money management since once I get rolling in one I sit and wait it out.
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Old 05-27-2016, 08:29 AM   #25
castaway01
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
The vig isn't lessened just because you have to be right about 5 races instead of just 1.
Paying 20% vig once instead of five races in a row is simple math---paying once is better.
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Old 05-27-2016, 12:06 PM   #26
AndyC
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Originally Posted by castaway01
Paying 20% vig once instead of five races in a row is simple math---paying once is better.
How many people parlay 5 races in a row with multiple selections in each race? If there are actual bettors who do such a thing then your explanation is correct. Otherwise each bet stands on its own. The fact that a bet may have 10,000+ possible winning combinations doesn't lessen the impact of the vig.
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Old 05-27-2016, 03:50 PM   #27
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The math works like this. Assume a 20% take from the win pool and 25% take from the p3/p4 pool. By parlaying the 3 winners on average you would get back .8*.8*.8 .512% of fair value (on average). While on your pick 3 you would get back .75% of fair value. Pick 4 would be .8*.8*.8*.8 or about .41 on the dollar rather than .75 on the dollar.

So obviously the pick 3 and pick 4 in general should pay a lot better then a straight parlay. Now the argument is that betting individual races you can focus strictly on "value" plays whereas you do not have that option in pick 3's and pick 4's. However, pick 3's and pick 4's are not completely blind. At a track with big pools and rolling doubles you not only know how the public is betting the first race, but the double pool gives you a fair idea of how they will attack the 2nd leg.

Also think there is probably a lot less "sharp" money in the rolling pick 3's and pick 4's(especially).
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Old 05-27-2016, 04:47 PM   #28
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from what i learned with statistics in college, was that to get the probability of getting two consecutive correct outcomes, you multiply the first probability by the second probability and so on.
lets say you have 30% chance in each leg of the pik three: that is .3 X .3 X .3
which comes out to a .027 chance of winning . i really can't see myself getting involved in such a proposition, not to mention the size of the bankroll i would need to avoid risk of ruin.

i might add that the bettor also does not know the probable payoff if he hits, in the pik 3. or pik 4. unlike the daily double. he is betting blind into the pools, not a wise way to gamble, being unknowing of ones reward to risk taken.

Last edited by acorn54; 05-27-2016 at 04:59 PM.
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Old 05-27-2016, 05:01 PM   #29
AndyC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
The math works like this. Assume a 20% take from the win pool and 25% take from the p3/p4 pool. By parlaying the 3 winners on average you would get back .8*.8*.8 .512% of fair value (on average). While on your pick 3 you would get back .75% of fair value. Pick 4 would be .8*.8*.8*.8 or about .41 on the dollar rather than .75 on the dollar.

So obviously the pick 3 and pick 4 in general should pay a lot better then a straight parlay. Now the argument is that betting individual races you can focus strictly on "value" plays whereas you do not have that option in pick 3's and pick 4's. However, pick 3's and pick 4's are not completely blind. At a track with big pools and rolling doubles you not only know how the public is betting the first race, but the double pool gives you a fair idea of how they will attack the 2nd leg.

Also think there is probably a lot less "sharp" money in the rolling pick 3's and pick 4's(especially).
I understand the math but it is a ridiculous comparison. To say that a P-4 is a good bet because it beats a 4 race parlay is nonsensical unless one were actually contemplating making such a bet. Would someone ever bet a 2 X 4 X 6 X 1 parlay?
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Old 05-27-2016, 05:09 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by acorn54
from what i learned with statistics in college, was that to get the probability of getting two consecutive correct outcomes, you multiply the first probability by the second probability and so on.
lets say you have 30% chance in each leg of the pik three: that is .3 X .3 X .3
which comes out to a .027 chance of winning . i really can't see myself getting involved in such a proposition, not to mention the size of the bankroll i would need to avoid risk of ruin.

i might add that the bettor also does not know the probable payoff if he hits, in the pik 3. or pik 4. unlike the daily double. he is betting blind into the pools, not a wise way to gamble, being unknowing of ones reward to risk taken.
So you wouldn't take 2.7% chance if your payoff were 200-1? Pools may be blind but that doesn't mean you can't predict where the payoffs will fall if you have studied the patterns of the pools. You certainly won't be correct 100% of the time but it's better than betting blind pools with no idea whatsoever.
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