The case for Exaggerator

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by arw629

Exxxagertor has bounce written all over him ...0 for 4 vs Nyquist ...Exxxagertor will be the horse overbet the most in this race

Why do you think "0 for 4 vs Nyquist" is such a definitive statistic? So once you lose 4 races to a horse (including a couple as a TWO YEAR OLD), there's no way you can possibly ever beat the horse in the future?

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Agreed, plus he has to catch him (Nyquist).....most likely in the slop........he will be at the mercy of the pace. If there is none, he's done. This could be interesting because many others have the potential of being overlooked.

Why do you think exaggerator is likely to bounce? Seems to me Nyquist (off a big career top) is more likely to regress a bit. Ex on the other hand looks to have a great developmental pattern... I also don't think he's necessarily a stone cold closer. I think, much like his sire, he has tactical speed when needed.

[Thomas Roulston]

With a Dosage Index of 4.33, American Pharoah got away with grand theft auto when he won the Belmont, and with it the Triple Crown.

With a Dosage Index of 7.00, Nyquist would be getting away with first-degree murder if he wins it.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

With a Dosage Index of 4.33, American Pharoah got away with grand theft auto when he won the Belmont, and with it the Triple Crown.

With a Dosage Index of 7.00, Nyquist would be getting away with first-degree murder if he wins it.

What? If Nyquist wins it--you want to somehow hold Nyquist as being "lucky"-- and not that archaic D.I.? What good is Dosage as a predictor of anything-- if they just backfit to conform?


The only "handicappers" nowadays that even mention it--are TV guys trying to sound smart.

If you're a TV Guy--my apologies.

[Secondbest]

According to the bris summary EX is a lone P.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

What? If Nyquist wins it--you want to somehow hold Nyquist as being "lucky"-- and not that archaic D.I.? What good is Dosage as a predictor of anything-- if they just backfit to conform?

Dosage still has some relevancy, particularly center of distribution and Roman has the stats and more stats to back it up. I've had fair success betting against higher dosage horses stretching out. Certainly not the be all end all of handicapping factors but another tool in the box.

Another poster mentioned AP last year but his dosage was not far off the trend line. Nyquist was but there are always going to be outliers in statistics.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by porchy44

For 3 days pressers were lights out. (2nd 3rd 4th first call). When Nyquist broke second in Derby I declared him the winner 10 seconds into the race.

Pressers winning does not equate to a speed bias. On Oaks day, there were 5 one turn dirt races at CD. Favorites won 4 of the 5 with odds on favorites winning 3. The results were very predictable; not likely altered by the track surface favoring a running style.

Five one turf dirt races on Derby Day. 2 favorites won and the two prices that won were well out from the inside.

Someone said earlier that for several days nobody came from further back than 4th. Carina Mia was still 6th after 4 furlongs in that 7f stake.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Pressers winning does not equate to a speed bias. On Oaks day, there were 5 one turn dirt races at CD.

The closers in one turn races had absolutely no chance on Oaks Day. None.

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Plenty of horses with "mud breeding" don't move up on the mud the way Exaggerator does.

This race is no "walkover" on paper.

Walkover for Nyquist no matter the track condition, Nyquist is coming into this race in better shape then the derby. His daddy is Uncle Mo who is a super duper mud sire.
Exaggerator was born in the wrong year, Nyquist has the evil eye, once he hit the front no horse can or will past him.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by SandyW

Walkover for Nyquist no matter the track condition, Nyquist is coming into this race in better shape then the derby. His daddy is Uncle Mo who is a super duper mud sire.
Exaggerator was born in the wrong year, Nyquist has the evil eye, once he hit the front no horse can or will past him.

I've seen plenty of horses with "mud sires" who do not like the off track, just as I have see horses with "classic breeding" who don't route well and horses with "grass sires" who prefer dirt.

I'm not bashing on people who bet on breeding, but breeding's a second order handicapping tool. When you have actual form on an off track, that's much more important, and Exaggerator's Santa Anita Derby on the slop was the most powerful three year old route win of the year.

[boys at tosconova]

i think he has a solid chance to win

[Sunday Silence]

I see these two 4-5 lengths clear of the rest. Nyquist will be tough to pass. Chalky exacta.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Why do you think exaggerator is likely to bounce? Seems to me Nyquist (off a big career top) is more likely to regress a bit. Ex on the other hand looks to have a great developmental pattern... I also don't think he's necessarily a stone cold closer. I think, much like his sire, he has tactical speed when needed.

Because he's been beaten so many times by the same horse and he has been trying to be a stone cold, closer in the last two. He has the biggest chance to beat Nyquist, but he also has a big chance of being too far out early, at this place. If they change up again and sit closer, he could falter, but that's also probably his best chance. Like I said, I'm using him in my numbers, but I will use another too because I think he may be the odd one out at this track. At the price he will be bet to, its a risky deal. I actually think Nyquist may run better, many times the winner of the derby freaks in the Preakness. I could be all wrong too, but I've seen this show before. Not likely to bounce but more likely to bounce than the champ. And maybe bounce is not the right term, because I think he could be in for a tough trip against a horse that's better. Nyquist shows a quick punch, at will, that will be hard to catch at this joint.

My point is Nyquist has won every race. He probably has to bounce or its a done deal. Look for a third player in the slop that could upset the apple cart. When everyone makes it sound so easy in a horse race, it usually is not. Burnsy's exacta law of physics.