Pletcher and the Preakness

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Stradivari is currently third choice. Off his last race I can see him getting action.

Well bred Pletcher horses following the pattern of a quick maiden win, NW1 ALW win, and then a jump up into stakes company often take a pretty good leap forward. This is a very big jump in class. So even if he improves it might not get the job done. But I would make this horse 15-1 if it wasn't Pletcher off that win (albeit fast) against a very weak field. As a Pletcher horse following that pattern, IMO the fair price is a lot lower.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Yea, he's done pretty well there. Good point.

But apparently you're not baffled by his record in the TC. Why do you think he does so bad there, and in the Breeders Cups races ??? (if you don't count Liam's Map who he talked the owner into avoiding the BCC so he could get a win on his resume).

Please explain it to us.

I never said I had the answer.

But, for a pretty large operation that runs in a LOT of races, you're talking a very small sample here in terms of Triple Crown Races...the most competitive 3yo races around at the time to boot...he's 3 for 68 if the numbers here are posted correctly...he's due...

[Bennie]

pletcher has always had a habit of cranking his horses up in all the prep races and while getting many to the Triple Crown races, they have nothing left in the tank. He'll win 3 or 4 preps, pick up a few million on the way but never the Big one.

[rastajenk]

Well, you can't say never, because he has. Just not very often.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I never said I had the answer.

But, for a pretty large operation that runs in a LOT of races, you're talking a very small sample here in terms of Triple Crown Races...the most competitive 3yo races around at the time to boot...he's 3 for 68 if the numbers here are posted correctly...he's due...

I keep coming back to these figures. I'm sorry, I can't help it. I'm floored...if they are, indeed, correct. This is absolutely staggering when seen in black and white given the horses that go to this man. Maybe I'm the only one but if my outcome for this series of races were no better than this? What I'm doing would have to undergo scrutiny, and solid consideration of change.