Nyquist and the numbers?

[Capper Al]

Was it pen and paper cappers that made Nyquist the favorite? It might be. I would have picked Nyquist by pen and paper methods, but not by crunching my numbers. The trackman had him but not BRIS Prime. Two out of three times when the trackman disagrees with BRIS Prime my program sides with BRIS, using BRIS data might have something to do with this. I reviewed my data to see if there was a way to get Nyquist and really didn't find a way without twisting the app. We kid P&P cappers a lot here, but sometimes they have the edge.

[PaceAdvantage]

So that seals it then. Let's all switch to be Pen & Paper handicappers. I'm down with it.

[cordep17]

replays with a good form, like the ones you get from Brisnet for free, that tell you pertinent trainer stats with figures you can trust not to blatantly lie to you have always done me fairly well.

Replays showed Mor Spirit was basically Majesto who just got good quicker. Not bad, but a serious threat?

Replays showed that Gunrunner would find a trip that he's been comfortable taking every race of his career

Replays showed Creator and Suddenbreakingnews were the best deep closers and that Exaggerator might be a flight ahead of the back group with as good of a kick if not better than those 2 named.

Finally, replays showed Nyquist was in a lot of ways this year's American Pharoah. The horse who you continued to ask how much more he could do with the most favorable running style of all.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So that seals it then. Let's all switch to be Pen & Paper handicappers. I'm down with it.

We win some. We lose some. Just would have liked to have the Derby in the win some column.

[classhandicapper]

I think competent comparative class handicapping revealed he was clearly the best horse. It was numbers that gave some people doubts about him.

I thought he was the best horse and said so a few times. I used him on a few tickets with horses I thought were good value, but I did not cash. I could not key on him at 2-1 from a value perspective.

[Tom]

I had no problem with his numbers. He looked like the best horse on figs.
I questioned his only having one route race under his belt, and that he drifted out in the stretch last race. On class, I thought there was nothing close to him.

[Robert Fischer]

The numbers are fine, but doesn't take a brain surgeon to see that the great numbers of the (can't even think of his name at the moment) aren't worth anything if he can't set a strong pace and hold it for 10 furlongs in a derby atmosphere. (something that an 8.5f prep and a very-hot SAD meltdown-excuse didn't stamp as more than a long shot)

and the numbers of exaggerator didn't mean a thing, if Nyquist was going to get a clean 1st run.

Nyquist was the OBVIOUS favorite, and the race ran to form.
Not because of his record, but because it was clear that he had the highest percentage chance to win.

2-1? (i don't know the final odds) was not a good bet, but the highest percentage winner won.

If you wanted to force an angle you either bet the (wire to wire threat)
or Exaggerator (ran just as good as Nyquist in the san whatever in a race that Nyquist dominated tactically while Exaggerator chased wide)
or Mohaymen (favored vs Nyquist and then had a bad trip in fla derby)

it turned out very similar to 2015

'gun runner' ran just like 'firing line'
nyquist ran like AP

race ran almost perfectly to form with almost no trips.

only interesting stuff was horses closing past the stalkers for minor placings

[Capper Al]

Now that I think a little more about this; the public might have done well the last couple of years, but over the long run the public hasn't done too well with the favorites in the Derby.

[raybo]

I had Nyquist ranked 2nd in my "Class" rating ("basically" it's money won in dirt routes only) behind Brody's Cause, he ranked 3rd in my "PFV" method (Power Form Velocity) behind Mohaymen and Destin, and 2nd in my "still in work" "Weighted Factors" method behind Mohaymen. So, if you didn't like Mohaymen and Destin then Nyquist ranked #1 in all 3 rankings methods. But, at low odds, in a 20 horse field of young 3 year olds, you couldn't bet him, and for me , that's all that counts.

Nyquist also ranked 2nd in my "Class/Distance" method behind Lani, so most would have moved him to 1st ranking in that method (I certainly would have).

[fiznow]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Was it pen and paper cappers that made Nyquist the favorite? It might be. I would have picked Nyquist by pen and paper methods, but not by crunching my numbers. The trackman had him but not BRIS Prime. Two out of three times when the trackman disagrees with BRIS Prime my program sides with BRIS, using BRIS data might have something to do with this. I reviewed my data to see if there was a way to get Nyquist and really didn't find a way without twisting the app. We kid P&P cappers a lot here, but sometimes they have the edge.

Everything but his speed figures made him look like a favorite imo.

[Capper Al]

I had the top two finishers flipped-flopped. But the odds were too low for me too. On paper, I still think Nyquist look the best.

[Wickel]

The Derby replay will show that Mike Smith pulled another "Palace Malice," turning in a scorching 45-and-change half mile that took the starch out of him. And all this after breaking slowly. And the replay will also show that Mohaymen did not break alertly under Junior Alvarado, was shuffled back, then had no where to run first time down the stretch. When he got clear at the top of the lane, he came running, but it was too late. Replays will show that Alvarado needs to be replaced, and if so, Mohaymen romps in the Travers.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

• 7 for 7 lifetime
• 6 Graded Stakes wins
• 2YO Champion
• 4 G1 Graded Stakes wins
• Put away the supposed Derby favorite handily in his final prep before the Derby.

All of these items towered over the rest of the field.

The biggest nick on Nyquist were his times and his figures.

He was undoubtedly the deserving favorite. My whole problem was 2/1. Regardless of the outcome of the race, 2/1 was an underlay. For crap's sake, he was 8/5 (2nd choice) in a 10 horse field in which it was considered a duel..... and 8 tomato cans.

He did have distance questions as well, although they were likely overplayed. EVERY horse in the Derby has distance questions until they actually prove they can run well at 10F or more.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

• 7 for 7 lifetime
• 6 Graded Stakes wins
• 2YO Champion
• 4 G1 Graded Stakes wins
• Put away the supposed Derby favorite handily in his final prep before the Derby.

All of these items towered over the rest of the field.

The biggest nick on Nyquist were his times and his figures.

He was undoubtedly the deserving favorite. My whole problem was 2/1. Regardless of the outcome of the race, 2/1 was an underlay. For crap's sake, he was 8/5 (2nd choice) in a 10 horse field in which it was considered a duel..... and 8 tomato cans.

He did have distance questions as well, although they were likely overplayed. EVERY horse in the Derby has distance questions until they actually prove they can run well at 10F or more.

All of which was pointed out well before the Derby! But many here were just looking for a price.

And on top of all this it won on 4 different racing surfaces with various running styles.

Nyquist is maturing very nicely. Who knows just how fast he can run? Will we ever know? Because all he ever wants to do is just win the race. Isn’t that all that really matters?

You don’t need "numbers" to define CLASS.
.
.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

• 7 for 7 lifetime
• 6 Graded Stakes wins
• 2YO Champion
• 4 G1 Graded Stakes wins
• Put away the supposed Derby favorite handily in his final prep before the Derby.

All of these items towered over the rest of the field.

The biggest nick on Nyquist were his times and his figures.

He was undoubtedly the deserving favorite. My whole problem was 2/1. Regardless of the outcome of the race, 2/1 was an underlay. For crap's sake, he was 8/5 (2nd choice) in a 10 horse field in which it was considered a duel..... and 8 tomato cans.

He did have distance questions as well, although they were likely overplayed. EVERY horse in the Derby has distance questions until they actually prove they can run well at 10F or more.

That sums it up perfectly.