Derby Beyer

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Maybe recently, but can't imagine they are what they were 20 years ago. It wasn't uncommon for a 2yo to get a 100+.

This is the data I have for 3+ MSW in NY.

The 1975 PAR is from another source. The rest are from data I have access to.

1975 - PAR 78
1993 - PAR 80
1993-2000 - PAR 82
2001-2009 - PAR 86
2010 - 2015 - PAR 85

One explanation for this may be that guys like Pletcher, Baffert and others control a lot of the very best young horses and they tend to bring them out close to cranked. If you go way back, trainers tended to bring horses along much slower.

If those MSW horses are coming out more cranked than a figure maker is expecting, his tendency might be to project slower figures for them than they are actually earning by making the variant faster. That would drag down the figures of the top horses a few points.

I think it was you that originally came up with the insight about claiming horses potentially being a lot better now than they used to be (super trainers). That would cause a similar compression.

It's stuff like this topic (along with all the others) that made me move away from taking numbers too literally and worrying too much about a few points here or there. Fast/Average/Slow is good enough if you pretty good at evaluating field quality and watching trips and horses etc...

That's also why I pound the table on it so much. There are a lot of really smart people that thought American Pharoah was mediocre because his Beyer figures were mediocre relative to horses from years ago. I thought that was laughable. That crop was good and he was toying with them. IMO loads of horses from the last 10 years or so are underrated because of various figure quirks and probably wildly overrated on other figures.

[classhandicapper]

I should add, that none of this really matters much in day to day handicapping because any changes in breeding, legal drug usage, illegal drug usage, drug testing, training techniques, surface composition, very slow figure drift etc... have almost no impact on figures in any snapshot in time. It's the historical record that gets distorted long term in much the same way you can't compare baseball players from different eras using ERA, batting average, slugging %, etc.. because the training methods, ballparks, baseballs, mounds, drugs, strategies etc.. have changed dramatically over time.

People saying AP wasn't very fast during his Triple Crown campaign were comparing his figures to the figures earned by other leading 3yos in other eras and came to that conclusion on the assumption the figures were fully comparable. IMHO, they are not and almost can't be because you can't control for all those changes.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I should add, that none of this really matters much in day to day handicapping because any changes in breeding, legal drug usage, illegal drug usage, drug testing, training techniques, surface composition, very slow figure drift etc... have almost no impact on figures in any snapshot in time. It's the historical record that gets distorted long term in much the same way you can't compare baseball players from different eras using ERA, batting average, slugging %, etc.. because the training methods, ballparks, baseballs, mounds, drugs, strategies etc.. have changed dramatically over time.

Yeah, that is what I said.

[rastajenk]

On this DRF Stakes Results page,, all the Pimlico stakes have posted Beyers except the Preakness. Why is that? Does it take some extra massaging and twisting, is there some force or pressure to make sure they get it exactly right? Why can't it simply be determined the same way the other stakes were?

[fiznow]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

On this DRF Stakes Results page,, all the Pimlico stakes have posted Beyers except the Preakness. Why is that? Does it take some extra massaging and twisting, is there some force or pressure to make sure they get it exactly right? Why can't it simply be determined the same way the other stakes were?

For this reason I don't really care about them.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by fiznow

For this reason I don't really care about them.

I don't think that's entirely fair given it takes a couple days for the others to post their numbers.

I'd say that yes, they want this number to be as right as they can get it, but it was the last stake on the card and the track changed condition for this race as well.

[098poi]

It's up now, 101.

[Tom]

It was the second slowest Preakness since 1991, only faster than last year.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

It was the second slowest Preakness since 1991, only faster than last year.

Moving up, maybe shrinkage is over!

So that race was faster than American Pharoah? OK, got it.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I should add, that none of this really matters much in day to day handicapping because any changes in breeding, legal drug usage, illegal drug usage, drug testing, training techniques, surface composition, very slow figure drift etc... have almost no impact on figures in any snapshot in time. It's the historical record that gets distorted long term in much the same way you can't compare baseball players from different eras using ERA, batting average, slugging %, etc.. because the training methods, ballparks, baseballs, mounds, drugs, strategies etc.. have changed dramatically over time.

People saying AP wasn't very fast during his Triple Crown campaign were comparing his figures to the figures earned by other leading 3yos in other eras and came to that conclusion on the assumption the figures were fully comparable. IMHO, they are not and almost can't be because you can't control for all those changes.

Remember, Beyers were never intended as a historical comparison anyway. That's not their function. When we insist on making those comparisons, we are using a screwdriver to try and hammer a nail.

[Ruffian1]

Originally Posted by cj

Moving up, maybe shrinkage is over!

Originally Posted by cj

So that race was faster than American Pharoah? OK, got it.

It was a cold rain CJ.

Shrinkage is to be expected.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Remember, Beyers were never intended as a historical comparison anyway. That's not their function. When we insist on making those comparisons, we are using a screwdriver to try and hammer a nail.

I'm pretty sure Beyer said his numbers were intended for historical comparisons. I think that was 20 or more years ago.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

I'm pretty sure Beyer said his numbers were intended for historical comparisons. I think that was 20 or more years ago.

He did, but he was wrong. There are too many changes from generation to generation. They only work as a comparison of current runners.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

He did, but he was wrong. There are too many changes from generation to generation. They only work as a comparison of current runners.

And they barely do that.

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I should add, that none of this really matters much in day to day handicapping because any changes in breeding, legal drug usage, illegal drug usage, drug testing, training techniques, surface composition, very slow figure drift etc... have almost no impact on figures in any snapshot in time. It's the historical record that gets distorted long term in much the same way you can't compare baseball players from different eras using ERA, batting average, slugging %, etc.. because the training methods, ballparks, baseballs, mounds, drugs, strategies etc.. have changed dramatically over time.

People saying AP wasn't very fast during his Triple Crown campaign were comparing his figures to the figures earned by other leading 3yos in other eras and came to that conclusion on the assumption the figures were fully comparable. IMHO, they are not and almost can't be because you can't control for all those changes.

How long is an era? Certainly you can compare today's figures with those of the last decade or so and even by that restriction American Pharoah's Derby and Preakness were BSFs were on the low side. Going back to just 2000 his Derby was the co-4th slowest (105 vs 106.2 average), his Preakness was the co-2nd slowest (102 vs 108.3) and his Belmont was the 5th co-fastest (105 vs 102.4). Where are you drawing the line? One year, five years, ten years?.

As far as figure drift goes, yes, almost all the figure makers show a downward trend in American classic races over the last 20 or 25 years. However, I don't think it's a coincidence that no major North American record on dirt beyond a sprint distance has been broken in almost 30 years while the records at 5 1/2, 6 and 6 1/2f have all be set since 2009. Horses do seem to be getting slower at route distances and faster in sprints. That's the direction breeding has taken and that's the result.