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05-03-2016, 10:33 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 175
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Average Jockey Winning Percentage
I have a method that has as an "Optional Procedure", an add on to their basic number, to rate Jockeys on a scale of zero (0) to nine (9). 9 being the highest rating. In percentage terms, what is considered the "average number" for Jockey's Wins? Is it 12%, 15%, etc.?
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05-03-2016, 12:38 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Typically, at a meeting, 3-6 jockeys will amass 60% or more of the wins, skewing the "average" a great deal. Statistically, I think you should search for the "median" or even better, the "mode" in your work.
Last edited by Ocala Mike; 05-03-2016 at 12:40 PM.
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05-03-2016, 12:51 PM
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#3
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,363
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The average jockey win percentage is one divided by the average number of starters per race. Unless there have been a large enough number of dead heats for win, which would push the average higher.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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05-03-2016, 08:07 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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I think that they should put in the stats somewhere the average odds of the horses the jock rides. A jock with a 30% win rate riding all chalk cannot compare to a jock with a 10% win rate riding 15/1 shots. Average odds for trainers and jocks could show us who is winning because they are on horses that are much the best.
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05-03-2016, 08:15 PM
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#5
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
I think that they should put in the stats somewhere the average odds of the horses the jock rides. A jock with a 30% win rate riding all chalk cannot compare to a jock with a 10% win rate riding 15/1 shots. Average odds for trainers and jocks could show us who is winning because they are on horses that are much the best.
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Agreed. Perhaps ROI might be a better yardstick?
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05-03-2016, 08:25 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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No, that is incorrect, russmeister; you're assuming the exact same jockeys ride in every race with no races off.
Let's assume a 100 race meeting with a jockey colony consisting of 10 riders and an average field size of just 5 horses.
At the end of the meeting, the standings look like this:
A 90 mounts/30 wins = 33.3%
B 80 mounts/22 wins = 27.5%
C 65 mounts/14 wins = 21.5%
D 35 mounts/6 wins = 17.1%
E 45 mounts/7 wins = 15.6%
F 40 mounts/6 wins = 15%
G 40 mounts/6 wins = 15%
H 35 mounts/5 wins = 14.3%
I 30 mounts/2 wins = 6.7%
J 40 mounts/2 wins = 5%
The average jockey winning percentage is 17.1%, the median is 15.3%, and the mode is 15%. What you would do with this, and what you would do about places and shows is up to you and your program.
Last edited by Ocala Mike; 05-03-2016 at 08:27 PM.
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05-04-2016, 12:29 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 369
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I once toyed around with rating connections using the Brier Score using the odds as the forecast probability against the the binary event win not-win. This indicates those jocks & trainers who out perform the odds.
The whole subject of forecast verification is a very rich seam. This link provides a good overview of the subject.
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05-10-2016, 07:05 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 67
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Statsmaster from Trackmaster will give you stats of trainers or jocks on longshots 5/1 or higher I believe. If that helps anyone at all. Sorry if off topic.
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05-11-2016, 02:52 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 181
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Check out horse - jockey combinations. Sometimes a lower percent jockey has a great record with the specific horse.
__________________
"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." Will Rogers
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03-28-2017, 03:48 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 3
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Statsmaster missing Jockeys
I like using the Statsmaster to see who made ITM%
They show odds of 8-1 or higher.
I've noticed that the list is missing Jockeys fro this list that should be there..
Does anyone know of another site that offers the same info???
I now see that most of you suggest using a spreadsheet of some sort to organize these.
Last edited by WarWin440; 03-28-2017 at 03:57 PM.
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03-28-2017, 04:06 PM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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I have noticed over years of chart watching the rather common sense notion that low percentage jockeys win more often on low odds horses than they will aboard higher odds horses....I'm sure the same holds true for high percentage jockeys, that they win more often on lower odds mounts...
The test is whether a high percentage jockey can move up high odds horses...what would a test for this look like...? I intuit that this might indeed be the case, and assuming it was, and the stats held up, what would explain this....qualitative factors, no doubt....
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03-28-2017, 04:15 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 3
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I like playing exotic's, especially the superfecta. I've seen low percentage win jockeys put more effort into getting ITM with high odds horses to no surprise, and high percentage jockeys not reach the money on a favorite. With many variables and reasons may be I watch for those lower Jockey's to get up there to put in my ticket.
Last edited by WarWin440; 03-28-2017 at 04:22 PM.
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03-28-2017, 05:08 PM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Was the OP's question ever answered?
Because, he never elaborated.
The question I have is, has he ever posted again?
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03-28-2017, 08:03 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,451
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky13
I have a method that has as an "Optional Procedure", an add on to their basic number, to rate Jockeys on a scale of zero (0) to nine (9). 9 being the highest rating. In percentage terms, what is considered the "average number" for Jockey's Wins? Is it 12%, 15%, etc.?
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Hey Sparky, it depends on the track and the average number of horses per race. There is a very strong relationship between the size of the field and the jockey winning percentage.
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03-29-2017, 08:00 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
Was the OP's question ever answered?
Because, he never elaborated.
The question I have is, has he ever posted again?
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He's posted a handful of times since then.
You really can't answer the original question, or at least I don't see what benefit a nationwide answer would give. You can say the average jockey wins 11% of the time, but if you're talking about a track with 7-horse fields or a track with 10-horse fields, what would be considered a good percentage would differ. And that only matters if horses of equal skill are equally distributed, which they never are.
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