For those who think whales are a myth

[Dave Schwartz]

http://nypost.com/2016/05/02/tech-is...her-than-ever/

Unlike the rest of us, members of these tightly managed syndicates — reportedly around 21 in operation — bet only when they perceive advantages. Their software grinds though loads of data from past races to provide what’s hoped to be the true odds for each horse running. When the system finds value — say, if the track offers odds of 6–1 but the software says it should be 3–1 — they pounce with wagers.

Blood-Horse reports that the teams wager a total of nearly $2 billion per year on various races and realize significant profits. This past March, according to an article in the magazine, computer-assisted players accounted for an estimated 15.9 percent to 20.2 percent of total racing money wagered in North America.

[deelo]

I'm not sure I get the whole "tech mafia" vibe being put out with all these articles lately...like no one possesses the means for horse racing software? The bottom line is the edge doesn't come from a secret syndicate group with a piece of secret software. The edge comes from joe public being too lazy to put in the necessary work to be profitable...whether it be software or pen and paper handicapping. The "team" thing works because lots and lots of money can be shoved into positive ROI situations instantly faster than a single brick and mortar person could do it, but putting out all these weird "horse racing mafia" articles only hurts everyone. Keep publishing this and Joe Public will disappear faster than he already is...soon no one will have an edge.

[biggestal99]

Lucky for me, beginning in a week. I won't have to fight against the whales no more. Of course I have to deal with betfair bots but at least I can lock in on odds without have to worry about dropping a odds, I leave that to the rest of the country. Next Tuesday is whale freedom day in Jersey.

Allan

[pandy]

I was betting horses on Betfair years ago when it first came on the internet and I found it better than our pari mutuel system. So of course it disappeared. Glad to see it getting a shot in New Jersey. Hopefully it will catch on.

[the little guy]

I understand the groups, but as an aside....only the NY Post could write an article like this and not use a single actual name.

[no breathalyzer]

only people that can't win cry about whales period

[fiznow]

Everybody hates late odds changing. It's just annoying when you already wait until 1 min to post with your bet and then the odds are still dropping. A solution imo is to close all betting windows, online and offline, 5 mins to post. Would also be an effective measure against these groups.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by fiznow

Everybody hates late odds changing. It's just annoying when you already wait until 1 min to post with your bet and then the odds are still dropping. A solution imo is to close all betting windows, online and offline, 5 mins to post. Would also be an effective measure against these groups.

You'll never get any track to agree to that. The amount of money that comes in during the 5 minutes all the way till the bell sounds is a massive amount for most any track that operates in this country. You also have late scratches that occur all the time in which you need to allow for changes in wagers.

[DeltaLover]

I cannot see how closing the betting windows at any specific time is going to change the existing situation; in contrary I think it will be exactly the same regardless of the timing that is selected to stop the betting.

The problem lies in the mutual nature of wagering and can only be solved by the adoption of bookmakers and fixed odds, in the same way that works in sports betting.

More than this, I have read the article but I cannot see much value in it. No names, no references no technical details; I need more to be convinced that these mythical beasts indeed exist and they are milking the pools in the way that some people seem to believe.

Of course, I do not imply that there do not exist some very large horse bettors (large in comparison to an average bettor) and they do not invest a lot on their research; still this does not mean that they are always successful. Despite their unfair advantages (that have to do with private rebate deals and inside information), it is difficult to believe that they can show some significant profitability after paying salaries and other expenses.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

only people that can't win cry about whales period

How about people that want to see the sport succeed and grow? People that have an ounce of common sense and realize that rebating the smartest cappers in the world who bet huge money only destroys the sport and drives the most needed public money out of the pools? As mentioned in prior post, how about those who get fed up with betting horses at 2-1 as they are loading the gate, watching them hit 6-5, and end up with an undervalued play instead of a value play?

Good theory though.

[green80]

The only times whales hurt you is when they bet on the same horse as you do and it wins. If the whales are on another horse and you horse wins, your payout is higher. Even the best of handicappers is wrong over 60% of the time. All this talk about whales and lowering the odds is assuming they like the same runner as you do and it wins everytime. Shouldn't be likely. Even when whales spread their money over several in the same race, their odds line would have to be very accurate to have any long term effect, again not very likely.

[green80]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

How about people that want to see the sport succeed and grow? People that have an ounce of common sense and realize that rebating the smartest cappers in the world who bet huge money only destroys the sport and drives the most needed public money out of the pools? As mentioned in prior post, how about those who get fed up with betting horses at 2-1 as they are loading the gate, watching them hit 6-5, and end up with an undervalued play instead of a value play?

Good theory though.

Then watch the 4/1 next to him go to 6/1

[formula_2002]

"I’m at my computer by 5 in the morning,” says the source, whose team grosses in the eight-figures annually. “"

So am I...how do I get in touch with these guys (gals)

[Fox]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I understand the groups, but as an aside....only the NY Post could write an article like this and not use a single actual name.

Exactly. And I know a guy who met some other who knows "the source" and he said they made the whole thing up.

[Fox]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Lucky for me, beginning in a week. I won't have to fight against the whales no more. Of course I have to deal with betfair bots but at least I can lock in on odds without have to worry about dropping a odds, I leave that to the rest of the country. Next Tuesday is whale freedom day in Jersey.

Allan

Lol.....you never miss an opportunity to shill for Betfair.