Early trading - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Valuist · 05-02-2016, 10:21 AM

This is not shocking news and merely confirms what many of us suspected. An ECB paper has come out stating there has been "substantial early trading on U.S. economic data before that data is released", for as much as 30 minutes before the news release. Pretty much equivalent to finding out some tracks had a late window that stayed open after a race has gone off.

PaceAdvantage · 05-02-2016, 04:27 PM

Of course...but even then, I'm sure a lot of people get it wrong...LOL

Unless it's some pretty surprising data...

whodoyoulike · 05-02-2016, 05:31 PM

Is there a link to this report?

Because there have been previous reports of this, maybe not 30 minutes but a few minutes ahead notice where the public is reassured it's not occurring. These types of data releases (from the Fed etc.) are supposed to be guarded before their release. I would think these big hedge funds, banks/insurance companies and pension funds wouldn't put up with this unless they were also in on it since a lot of money is involved.

Valuist · 05-02-2016, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Is there a link to this report?

Because there have been previous reports of this, maybe not 30 minutes but a few minutes ahead notice where the public is reassured it's not occurring. These types of data releases (from the Fed etc.) are supposed to be guarded before their release. I would think these big hedge funds, banks/insurance companies and pension funds wouldn't put up with this unless they were also in on it since a lot of money is involved.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow...tudy-says.html

Valuist · 05-02-2016, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Of course...but even then, I'm sure a lot of people get it wrong...LOL

Unless it's some pretty surprising data...

That doesn't appear to be the case.

Just like the late moves on the tote board after the race has started.....uncanny how often it is right.

whodoyoulike · 05-02-2016, 06:41 PM

Thanks.

I'm always surprised it could or would occur. In the "third of the cases" could some of it be the results from just guessing correctly?

After all, I've heard a lot of people like to gamble.

Quote:

... It found that in a third of the cases, stock index and Treasury futures markets drifted substantially in the correct direction, starting from about 30 minutes before the official publication time. The early movement accounted on average for about half of the total price adjustment caused by the announcement, the paper said. In most of those cases, the reports were released by private trade groups.

NAR spokesman Adam DeSanctis said the group "goes to great lengths" to safeguard the data in its pending- and existing-home sales reports. ...

Valuist · 05-02-2016, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Thanks.

I'm always surprised it could or would occur. In the "third of the cases" could some of it be the results from just guessing correctly?

After all, I've heard a lot of people like to gamble.

There's plenty of places to gamble. These guys aren't gambling. They are playing a rigged game.

Ever see the Najarian brothers on CNBC? They have a device which tracks unusual trading activity in the options markets. We know the insider stuff gets leaked, option trades are less blatant than pure stock purchases.

PaceAdvantage · 05-03-2016, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

That doesn't appear to be the case.

Just like the late moves on the tote board after the race has started.....uncanny how often it is right.

All I know is many times, news doesn't always affect the market like people think it should...that's what I am getting at.

but I'm sure whoever is getting these advance previews already have gigabytes of data showing them how the market reacts to various bits of news data...

reckless · 05-03-2016, 11:08 PM

This might not be the perfect venue, I admit, but if anyone out there are investors, and not short term type traders, then I suggest getting into the stock market, and the sooner the better.

Yes, headline news will make the markets gyrate which will test many people's stomach, but use the volatility as a way to invest, invest more, and invest even more.

We're are closer to a springboard affect toward much higher stock values than we are to armageddon, believe me.

PaceAdvantage · 05-03-2016, 11:25 PM

Perhaps...but this market has been going nowhere but UP for YEARS AND YEARS...I'm not so gung ho...

This chart looks VERY toppy to me...the only thing that gives me pause is the lack of volume at this most recent peak...so perhaps there is one more run up left in this thing...

reckless · 05-04-2016, 12:22 AM

Mike, markets never fall simply because they are too tired from going up .... that's a silly notion that the TV stock market mavens try to foist onto people.

There are simply too many positive corporate factors that are being ignored or understated by the media. And, throw in the now-positive Trump will be President factor, and we could beat the latecomers with the keys to the kingdom.

PaceAdvantage · 05-04-2016, 12:31 AM

Not saying it's going to fall simply because it's tired of going up...although there is SOME merit to that sort of thinking...markets don't go straight up forever...there WILL be a correction. 140 on SPY is a pretty good 50% correction based on my back of the napkin calculations.

However, you can't deny this chart is at a pause...and has been for months. If you're so convinced we're going to rocket higher, then there is no reason not to wait for confirmation. Sure, you'll miss a little bit, but I think it's a more prudent strategy given the huge move we've seen since 2009 or so...