Nyquist's Vulnerability

[clocker7]

Nyquist has two appreciable advantages:

1. Enough early speed for crucial frontside positioning.
2. The proven ability to function in front of a large crowd.

Most of the rest are going to lose ground and/or spend energy because of a deficit of one or both, and will need a dream trip to end up in the winner's circle.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by clocker7

Nyquist has two appreciable advantages:

1. Enough early speed for crucial frontside positioning.
2. The proven ability to function in front of a large crowd.

Most of the rest are going to lose ground and/or spend energy because of a deficit of one or both, and will need a dream trip to end up in the winner's circle.

We will see what post he ends up with as those advantages can disintegrate in a hurry from deep in or out. If he gets his usual 5 hole then hard to disagree. If he gets 17-20 he's probably screwed. I normally don't focus much on post but there is not a whole heck of a lot separating half this field so I'll add that back into my capping strategy for this particular renewal.

[clocker7]

The impact of the post on Nyquist is likely to be less than that for about 15 of the other entrants.

[Robert Fischer]

Like any horse, questions can be asked-

Frontrunner Stakes - was awesome. He ran against the grain. He kept going. The performance was so great, that you can't really nitpick about the speed figures of the race, or the lack of competition.

Breeders Cup Juvenile - awesome. Another hard hard trip and he answered the call. (though it may be nothing more than 'trivia' the public had Greenpoint crusader @ 7/2 and both Nyquist and Exaggerator @ 9-2)

^ either of these races get him beat if a Grade 1 rival had gotten a good trip in the same race, but that's more a function of Nyquist getting a tough trip than a weakness.

after the BcJuvenile -he's now 5for5 and has not only had perfect style/fundamentals, he's never been outworked.

San Vicente - He was 'due' for an easy trip. Exaggerator may have been a little better. Nyquist does deserve credit for having the talent to take and control the initiative. What's funny is that this is a race figure makers point to as Nyquist's strongest race. Exaggerator ran 28 more feet for a higher avg mph(39.4 vs 39.3) (nearly 3 lengths) and these weren't cheap ground-loss lengths - these where 'chasing'. Exaggerator also had a higher peak speed(43.3 vs 42.7), but that is misleading in a way because Nyquist actually used his acceleration to dictate the trip and force Exaggerator to play his game. (all it really says is that Exaggerator isn't completely devoid of peak speed as is often the case in such comparisons). I'm not a huge Exaggerator fan(his Santa Anita Derby was a dream trip) but it's worth noting that Nyquist may have been slightly out-performed in terms of energy here.

Florida Derby - Nyquist ran well. The surface was probably to blame for his lead-change in the stretch(he did gallop out well). Was a bit of a weird race with his main rival getting a nightmare trip. Other than Mohaymen not many Derby win contender types in the Fla Derby and the place and show horses really ran efficient trips. (though maybe no more than 'trivia' Mohaymen went off the slight favorite)

^ So it's a little bit hard to see where Nyquist has gone from his San Vicente (Which suggested other top 3yos are capable of out-working him - or at least doing as much work).

How good was his Fla Derby?
Was the lead change a bad sign, or just a flukey effect of skipping over the surface a bit?
How good is Exaggerator? (is Exaggerator the beast of beasts or are there several horses capable of doing as much work as Exaggerator?)


Nyquist is clearly at the top of the class, but there at least some possibilities that he isn't dominant.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by clocker7

The impact of the post on Nyquist is likely to be less than that for about 15 of the other entrants.

His only wide trip was in the Cup rolling out of the 12 hole and had he ran one more wide the victory would have been Swiped. He could be more vulnerable than most from the auxiliary gate given his stalking style.

[SecretAgentMan]

Since 1935, 15 sires have had gotten a Kentucky Derby winner in their first crop.

Uncle Mo's first crop: Nyquist, Outwork & Mo Tom

[boys at tosconova]

the fl derby wasn't a strong field. after nyquist/moheyman is was pretty bad. maidens and maiden 1 winners. maybe the worst of all the late preps.

i guess if you want to hammer nyquist because of that, it's plausable.

just think of all the fun you'll have if he fishes otb,,you can start calling him burnquist..or you can start calling him burnquist right now if you want to hate him

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

the fl derby wasn't a strong field. after nyquist/moheyman is was pretty bad. maidens and maiden 1 winners. maybe the worst of all the late preps.

i guess if you want to hammer nyquist because of that, it's plausable.

just think of all the fun you'll have if he fishes otb,,you can start calling him burnquist..or you can start calling him burnquist right now if you want to hate him

I loved the undefeated Big Brown, even when he got the #20 post. Loved Smarty Jones big time, & really liked Barbaro, but Smarty was my favorite undefeated horse.

I get no feeling from Nyquist or anything that makes me want to bet him. All 3 undefeated horses I mentioned above would beat Nyquist.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I loved the undefeated Big Brown, even when he got the #20 post. Loved Smarty Jones big time, & really liked Barbaro, but Smarty was my favorite undefeated horse.

I get no feeling from Nyquist or anything that makes me want to bet him. All 3 undefeated horses I mentioned above would beat Nyquist.

I smoked that Big Brown-Eight Belles exacta. That was awesome! Big Brown towered over that crop.Barbaro was the most wow Derby performance I have seen live. Still love seeing that run. Like you Smarty was my favorite. I thought for certain he was going to be "the one"!

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I smoked that Big Brown-Eight Belles exacta. That was awesome! Big Brown towered over that crop.Barbaro was the most wow Derby performance I have seen live. Still love seeing that run. Like you Smarty was my favorite. I thought for certain he was going to be "the one"!

Yeah, I also thought he was gonna win the triple crown, although I never bet the Belmont when the crown is on the line, he fit the bill. But it went to.the one loss AP, with the best trainer Baffert, oh so fittingly.


I also had that Eaight Belles Exactas, alsonplayed Big Brown with 8 Belles & all triple. Were we lucky or what with 8 Belles? Horse broke down as she was crossing the wire.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Yeah, I also thought he was gonna win the triple crown, although I never bet the Belmont when the crown is on the line, he fit the bill. But it went to.the one loss AP, with the best trainer Baffert, oh so fittingly.


I also had that Eaight Belles Exactas, alsonplayed Big Brown with 8 Belles & all triple. Were we lucky or what with 8 Belles? Horse broke down as she was crossing the wire.

I am celebrating my 20th year in this game this season so I was getting into it right when Baffert was making his TC name so I share a certain love and affinity for Baffert as well. His Joe Buck interview was classic if you haven't seen it check it out.

Eight Belles really made it tough to enjoy a big win. But I don't want to relive it again. What does it say about the crop when you dismiss all the other boys and bet the girl to finish 2nd?! LOL! If I remember correctly she also had a mile workout that put me bonkers on her! I usually never play a heavy favorite-longshot exacta that pays that well unless it's at Parx on a Monday!

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I am celebrating my 20th year in this game this season so I was getting into it right when Baffert was making his TC name so I share a certain love and affinity for Baffert as well. His Joe Buck interview was classic if you haven't seen it check it out.

Eight Belles really made it tough to enjoy a big win. But I don't want to relive it again. What does it say about the crop when you dismiss all the other boys and bet the girl to finish 2nd?! LOL! If I remember correctly she also had a mile workout that put me bonkers on her! I usually never play a heavy favorite-longshot exacta that pays that well unless it's at Parx on a Monday!

Yeah, after she broke down, it brought back memories of Barbaro breaking down.

As for Baffert, I got into the game in 1991 My first big derby hit was Silver Charm, & then Real Quiet (hit the exacta too), back to back Baffert winners, he was good to me, BUT I couldn't bring myself to play War Emblem, which I should have just on principle alone, one its Baffert horse & two, it was after 911.

Then last year I tried to beat Baffert again knowing he's got the best horse. IMO, I don't think Baffert will win another for a while, at least I hope not, lol!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Yeah, after she broke down, it brought back memories of Barbaro breaking down.

As for Baffert, I got into the game in 1991 My first big derby hit was Silver Charm, & then Real Quiet (hit the exacta too), back to back Baffert winners, he was good to me, BUT I couldn't bring myself to play War Emblem, which I should have just on principle alone, one its Baffert horse & two, it was after 911.

Then last year I tried to beat Baffert again knowing he's got the best horse. IMO, I don't think Baffert will win another for a while, at least I hope not, lol!

Mor Spirit reminds me of Whitmore. I think they are empty run horses that should never excel in this Derby. But Haskin has me irritated about dismissing Whit and the Baffert factor has me irritated dismissing Mor. I am trying to pare this down to some meaningful tickets and not a combination parade!

[Robert Fischer]

Baffert is scary, but Mor Spirit (at face value) looks like he should at best be running 3rd or 4th.

Baffert also hurts his value.
Mor Spirit was somehow favored in the Santa Anita Derby vs. a Danzing Candy who just ran a HUGE San Felipe, and an Exaggerator who had consistently run bigger...

Derby is once a year, and has some big prices at times. I'm not gonna 'gravitate'. - Even if I'm scared of the trainer.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Mor Spirit reminds me of Whitmore. I think they are empty run horses that should never excel in this Derby. But Haskin has me irritated about dismissing Whit and the Baffert factor has me irritated dismissing Mor. I am trying to pare this down to some meaningful tickets and not a combination parade!

I've seen where a lot of handicappers are picking Whitmore as their longshot candidate. What am I missing here with this horse? He's came up empty at shorter distances, time and time again. Sure he has a strong turn of foot when he makes his move, but who cares if he flattens out 2-3 furlongs from the finish line?